Expect more interest rate rises in 2023: RBA

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Dec-22

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the latest increase in official interest rates is "the Christmas present no Australian household wanted". Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that further interest rate increases are likely in 2023, after the RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.1 per cent on Tuesday. Lowe said the size and timing of future rate rises will continue to be determined by incoming economic data and the RBA board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. He also noted that the headline inflation rate is still well above the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Chalmers says the eight increases in the cash rate since May are likely to weigh on economic growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY,{SPAC}RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

PM tells states to cap coal price

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Original article by Simon Benson,{SPAC}Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 7-Dec-22

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is said to be confident of securing a deal with state and territory leaders on gas and coal price caps before Christmas. The federal government will intervene in the gas market, although it is likely to wait until February to legislate its mandatory code of conduct, which will impose a floating price mechanism on gas producers as part of its strategy to reduce energy prices. However, the government will push for NSW and Queensland to impose their own price caps on coal; the states have warned that this would require the government to compensate coal producers.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.7 to start December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Dec-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.7 in the week ended 4 December. However, it is now 26.6pts below the same week a year ago (107.5) and 6.3pts below the 2022 weekly average of 89.0. There were mixed results around the nation; Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales and South Australia but decreased in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 29% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since early July), while 45% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,{SPAC}AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

US policy drives growth in rare earths sector

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 4 : 7-Dec-22

The US consul-general to Perth, Siriana Nair, says Australia is well positioned to benefit from incentives in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, due to the free-trade agreement between the two nations. They include incentives to assist US companies to source critical minerals and rare earths; Nair says this could boost US interest in Australia’s critical minerals projects. She says the global supply chain disruptions that occurred during the pandemic highlighted the need to have suppliers from a range of countries. China is the dominant player in the critical minerals sector.

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Rinehart shakes up Hancock leadership

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 7-Dec-22

Hancock Prospecting has unveiled changes to the leadership structure of its core iron ore business that will take effect from 30 January. The dual CEO structure for Roy Hill and Atlas Iron will be abolished, with Roy Hill CEO Gerhard Veldsman to assume responsibility for Hancock’s entire iron ore operations. Atlas Iron’s current CEO Sanjiv Manchanda will take up a new role as CEO of growth projects at Hancock, while Roy Hill’s inaugural CEO Barry Fitzgerald will become technical director for iron ore.

CORPORATES
HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD,{SPAC}ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD,{SPAC}ATLAS IRON LIMITED

Rough year ahead for housing as rates climb

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 & 32 : 7-Dec-22

The average standard variable interest rate for an existing mortgage loan will rise to 5.86 per cent after the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the cash rare by 25 basis points to 3.1 per cent on Tuesday. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the current monetary policy tightening cycle is likely to peak in early 2023, but he cautions that the negative impact of eight rate rises since May will continue to weigh on the housing market well into next year. He expects house prices to fall by another 9-10 per cent, while the number of distressed sales will rise as more borrowers’ fixed-interest rate loan periods expire.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

New Christmas spending forecasts swell to $66 billion as Aussies set to break new retail records

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Dec-22

The Australian Retailers Association has bumped up its pre-Christmas spending forecasts by another $2 billion, now predicting that a record $66 billion will be spent in the November to December Christmas trading period. The ARA holiday sales predictions with Roy Morgan forecast a record-breaking spend in the lead up to Christmas, which is up 6.4% on last year’s spending. Out of the states and territories, NSW, Victoria and Queensland have driven most of the projected spike in spending. New South Wales is set to record a $20.8 billion spend (up 7.7%), followed by Victoria with $17.1 billion (up 5.2%), with Queensland spending predicted to top $13.5 billion (up 6.8%). Sensory indulgence is a key theme for spending 2022, with alcohol and food topping the list of intended Christmas gift purchases for this year, followed by gift cards and toys. Men were the most likely to purchase alcohol or food, whilst women were more interested in small inexpensive gifts or novelties, clothing, shoes and sleepwear or books and music.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION,{SPAC}ROY MORGAN LIMITED

October retail results remain solid despite economic headwinds

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Original article by
Australian Retailers Association – Page: Online : 29-Nov-22

Retail sales continue to show robust year-on-year growth, with $35 billion spent in stores and online in October; this is an increase of 12.5 per cent on the same time a year ago, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, retail turnover fell 0.2 per cent compared to the previous month, which is the sector’s first monthly fall in 2022. There were strong year-on-year sales increases for clothing, footwear and personal accessories (up 32.8%), cafes, restaurants and take-away food (up 35.3%), and department stores (up 23.0%). Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra says that while the results remain solid for retail, some softening of sales is inevitable as Australians confront the cost-of-living challenges. He says the ARA is optimistic about pre-Christmas trading, anticipating a $63.9 billion spend this year; this is up three percent on 2021 spending, according to the ARA-Roy Morgan predictions.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Melbourne Institute & Roy Morgan – Taking The Pulse of the Nation: Tax rebates boosted consumption for Australians

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Nov-22

In 2022, tax refunds for Australians with taxable income below $126,000 were expected to be between $675 and $1,500 – a $420 increase from previous years. The Taking the Pulse of the Nation Survey recently asked Australians how they would spend their expected tax refunds. The survey results indicated that about $515 (48%) of the refund was spent on consumption, $318 (27%) on savings and investment, and $246 (22%) on paying existing debts. The response to tax refunds varied with income: those with annual taxable income below $32,000 consumed 50 percent more of their refunds than those with annual taxable income above $100,000. Of interest is whether tax filers’ anticipated consumption coincided with their actual behaviour after the tax refund was received. There is remarkable consistency in what tax filers say they would do with the refund and what they did with it. Policy makers and business might be able to anticipate policy effects by gathering richer data from consumers. This report is based on a total of 2,000 respondents from data collected in May and October 2022. Visit the Melbourne Institute Taking the Pulse of the Nation web portal for further information and to access interactive charts and other findings: https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/data/ttpn.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

New research shows good news in store for retail this Christmas

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Nov-22

The Christmas Gift Buying Survey by the Australian Retailers Association in collaboration with Roy Morgan shows that 59% of Australians intend to spend the same or more (12%) on Christmas gifts compared with 2021, despite growing inflationary pressures. The survey also found that the average gift purchase is $700, down slightly ($26) on last year. Australians aged 35-49 years will spend the most, committing an average of $933 to their gifts; spending for this age group is up $111 over last year. Meanwhile, the majority of Australians will continue to shop for Christmas gifts in-store, with around one-third done online (down 14% point on 2021). Only 1% of Australians say they will do 100% of their shopping online. This ARA-Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australian-wide cross-section of 2,317 Australians aged 18+ on Thursday October 20 – Monday October 24, including 1,717 who plan on buying gifts for Christmas.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, ROY MORGAN LIMITED