Lockdown a blunt instrument with no guarantees

Original article by Nick Cater
The Australian – Page: 10 : 30-Mar-20

A coronavirus lockdown separates people from jobs and businesses from customers to a far greater extent than intended. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of lockdowns remains uncertain, with the death toll in European countries that have imposed such measures continuing to rise. It is hard to imagine that an Italian-style nationwide lockdown would reduce the spread fast enough to stop Australia’s medical services being swamped. A poll on the weekend by Roy Morgan demonstrates that voluntary self-isolation is a feasible strategy, avoiding the need for the authoritarian approach some appear to prefer. In the poll, 84 per cent of those over 65 years of age said they were already self-isolating. Nobody knows if a full lockdown will end the pandemic or how long these draconian measures will have to stay in place. We do know, however, that such measures will come at an enormous cost to employment, welfare and families. It seems the total lockdown strategy would damage the economy beyond all recognition if kept in place for very long. The price would be paid not just in jobs and wages, but in loneliness, mental illness, family violence and perhaps even suicide. In a situation like this, the least-worse solution will always be the one that takes account of the welfare of people.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Scott Morrison offers coronavirus wage guarantee for those who have lost jobs, but details still to come

Original article by Amy Remeikis
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 30-Mar-20

The federal government is set to announce details of a wage guarantee in coming days. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the wage subsidy will be in addition to the coronavirus stimulus measures that have already been announced, and it will provide income support for people who have been stood down or laid off by businesses that have closed due to the pandemic. ACTU secretary Sally McManus says the wage guarantee should be backdated and it should apply to all workers, including casuals and temporary visa holders, as well as businesses of all sizes.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ACTU

Before Morrison’s Sunday night talk to the nation over two-thirds of Australians (69%) claim they are self-isolating

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Mar-20

Over two-thirds of Australians (69%) claim they are following Government directives to self-isolate as much as possible to fight the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. However, 31% say they are ‘not’ self-isolating, according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey of an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,069 Australians aged 18+ conducted on Friday March 27 and Saturday March 28. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that 69% of Australians claim they are self-isolating even before Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s directive on Sunday evening to restrict public gatherings to only one other person you are not living with. She adds that this figure is remarkably high when one considers the rising fatality counts in many overseas countries. Levine says Roy Morgan will repeat this survey in the next few days to determine whether Morrison’s appeals to self-isolate in no more than groups of two and avoid contact with people will lead to a rise in Australians who claim to be self-isolating or not.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Super funds lose billions as crisis hits

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 15 & 22 : 25-Mar-20

The financial market turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic has weighed on asset valuations in the superannuation industry. AustralianSuper has slashed the value of its portfolio of unlisted assets by 7.5 per cent, while IFM Investors has cut the valuations of its Australian unlisted assets by an average of 7.6 per cent. Both group have exposure to a range of infrastructure assets, such as airports and toll roads. Other super funds are also reviewing the value of their unlisted assets.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

Bosses, union unite to save jobs

Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 25-Mar-20

The Fair Work Commission has approved temporary changes to the industry award for hospitality workers in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The agreement between the United Workers Union and the Australian Hotels Association will allow employers to reduce workers’ hours to 60 per cent of full-time or regular part-time hours; employees can also be directed to take leave at half pay with just 24 hours’ notice. The changes to the Hospitality Award will initially be in place until 30 June. Employers and unions will seek similar changes to awards covering clerks and restaurant workers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, UNITED WORKERS UNION, AUSTRALIAN HOTELS ASSOCIATION

Wage subsidies not enough for small business

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 25-Mar-20

Former Treasury official Steven Hamilton has urged the federal government to increase the wage subsidies for small and medium enterprises in response to the pandemic. He warns that the SME sector will be "completely wiped out" if the government does not act, while the nation will face a long and deep recession. Andrew Boak of Goldman Sachs agrees that the government’s existing wage subsidy measures will not be sufficient to avert large-scale job losses.

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GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

Seven pulls guidance amid advertising uncertainties

Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 25-Mar-20

Seven West Media has withdrawn the earnings guidance it issued in February, citing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Seven had already downgraded its underlying EBIT guidance for 2019-20 at its half-year results presentation. Seven’s advertising revenue will be hit by the AFL’s decision to suspend its 2020 season until at least the end of May. It is also the official broadcaster of the Tokyo Olympic Games, which were to have been a key source of advertising revenue for the media group in 2020.

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SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Miners told to keep digging as rivals halt

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 25-Mar-20

Rio Tinto and South32 are among the Australian-listed mining companies whose operations will be affected by coronavirus lockdowns in South Africa and the Canadian province of Quebec. Production at mines in Australia is continuing at present, although New Hope Corporation’s CEO Shane Stephan says it is too soon to know if the virus will force local mines to close. He adds that it would be naive to suggest that there will be no impact. BHP CEO Mike Henry says senior government officials have indicated that they are keen for the resources industry to keep operating, given its contribution to the economy.

CORPORATES
NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX NHC, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

BBQ ban: social life not ok

Original article by Greg Brown, Simon Benson, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 25-Mar-20

The federal government has announced further restrictions as part of the coronavirus lockdown. A range of non-essential service providers will be forced to close, including beauticians, nail salons and tattoo parlours, although hairdressers and barber shops will be permitted to remain open for now. Restrictions have also been placed on the number of people who can attend weddings and funerals, while cultural institutions such as libraries and museums will be closed. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has also urged people to stay at home if possible, and he has cautioned against attending large gatherings such as barbecues and birthday parties.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Brace for a record fall in GDP

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 25-Mar-20

JPMorgan economist Ben Jarman expects GDP to fall by 10 per cent in the June quarter due to the coronavirus lockdown measures. The previous largest quarterly decline in GDP was just two per cent in 1974. Jarman also forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to 11 per cent during the quarter, a view shared by Bill Evans of Westpac. However, Evans expects GDP to fall by just 3.5 per cent in the quarter. Westpac economists have also forecast a Budget deficit of $90bn in 2019-20 due to the federal government’s stimulus measures, and a deficit of $160bn in 2020-21.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC