Iron’s endless summer keeps on keeping on

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 43 : 21-Dec-19

Shares in Fortescue Metals Group are trading at an 11-year high, boosted by factors such as continued strong demand for iron ore in China and supply disruptions in Brazil. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto’s shares have regularly traded above $100 in 2019, and the stock has not fallen below $35 in the last decade. Demand for iron ore has defied expectations over the last 10 years. The price of the steel input peaked at almost $US190 per tonne in 2011; its fall to around $US80/tonne in subsequent years prompted some observers to forecast that the iron ore boom was over. However, Australia’s iron ore exports reached a record $77bn in 2018-19 and could top $81bn in 2019-20. Likewise, some experts forecast that China’s annual steel production will exceed one million tonnes for the first time in 2020.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA

Economy at risk of hit from flames

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Dec-19

Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox says the bushfire crisis could result in negative GDP growth for the December quarter, following weak growth in the three months to September. Willox adds that sectors such as tourism and retail in particular are likely to be hard hit. National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster warns that the bushfires will further adversely affect consumer sentiment, although he says growth in the public sector is likely to prevent the economy from contracting in the December quarter. Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg stresses that it is too soon to estimate the economic impact of the bushfires.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

Australians largely negative on prospects for 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Dec-19

A special Roy Morgan web survey shows that two-fifths of Australians (40%) think 2020 will be ‘worse’ than 2019. This represents a significant increase of 26% points from a year ago and is the highest figure since 1990 – during the midst of Australia’s last recession. A record low 12% of Australians think 2020 will be ‘better’ than 2019, while 41% say 2020 will be about the same and 7% don’t know. The net negative rating of 28% points is the largest negative gap in the survey’s history going back nearly forty years. This exceeds the previous record gap of a net negative rating of 16% points in 1990, when 33% expected the next year (1991) would be better and 49% expected it to be worse. Slightly more men (41%) than women (40%) expect 2020 will be ‘worse’ than 2019, although more men (14%) also say that 2020 will be ‘better’ than 2019 than women (10%). Analysis by age group shows that younger people are the least pessimistic about 2020, although all age groups expect 2020 will be ‘worse’ than 2019.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

2019 post-Christmas retail sales to grow 2.3% to $18.7 billion

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Dec-19

Roy Morgan’s annual post-Christmas retail sales forecasts, conducted in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association (ARA), project that Australians are set to spend $18.72 billion across retail stores during the post-Christmas trading period, an increase of 2.3% from a year ago. The post-Christmas retail sales are expected to have a slightly lesser rate of growth than the larger pre-Christmas sales due to the growing impact of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend sales in late November, which have gained prominence in the last few years. The ABS Retail Sales data for October showed seasonally adjusted sales of $27.57 billion, unchanged on September. The lower than expected result doesn’t augur well for pre-Christmas sales which are now forecast to increase by between 2.5% to 2.6% on a year ago to $52.7 billion, a lower forecast range than previously released. Growth in retail expenditure is predicted across all six categories measured.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

Business to PM: Get economy moving

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Dec-19

The Business Council of Australia has called on the federal government to maintain its surplus goal as part of its Budget submission. The BCA has urged the government to help stimulate the economy through the adoption of an investment allowance, reducing red tape for infrastructure projects, and by making structural changes to the tax system over the longer-term. The BCA’s submission also calls for measures to boost workers’ skills, along with a new industry policy.

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BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL

Debt down; Australians have never been richer

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Dec-19

Average household wealth increased by $10,698 in the September quarter, to a record $428,573.5 per person. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data also shows that the household debt to assets ratio eased from 18.9 times to 18.5 times during the quarter, which coincided with two interest rate cuts and income tax relief. Meanwhile, the household savings rate rose from 2.7 per cent to 4.8 per cent in the three months to September, but growth in consumption fell to 0.1 per cent, compared with 0.4 per cent in the June quarter.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs surge slashes RBA rate cut odds

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 20-Dec-19

The financial market’s expectations of an official interest rate cut in February have been reduced from 56.8 per cent to just 45.2 per cent, following the release of the latest jobs data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that 39,900 jobs were created in November, well above economists’ forecasts of 15,000. The unemployment rate eased from 5.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent, with 4,200 full-time and 35,700 part-time jobs being created during the month. The participation rate was steady at 66 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Westpac slapped with $9m penalty over poor advice

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Original article by Aleks Vickovich
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 20-Dec-19

Westpac has been ordered to pay a total of $9.15m for 22 breaches of the Corporations Act. The bank was found to be liable for the ‘deficient and defective’ financial advice that ex-employee Sudhir Sinha provided in 2013 and 2014. Sinha was deemed to have failed to act in the best interests of his clients by providing financial advice that was inappropriate for their personal circumstances. The Australian Securities & Investments Commission has banned Sinha from working in the industry for five years, while it launched legal action against Westpac in 2018.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA

Private equity raids the Village

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Original article by Ben Wilmot, Bridget Carter
The Australian – Page: 15 & 21 : 20-Dec-19

Pacific Equity Partners has made a conditional, non-binding and indicative takeover offer for cinemas and theme parks group Village Roadshow. The offer of $3.90 per share values Village at about $1bn, or $761.2m when its debt is excluded. Shares in Village closed $0.69 higher at $3.89 on 19 December, in response to the private equity firm’s scheme of arrangement proposal.

CORPORATES
VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED – ASX VRL, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, VILLAGE ROADSHOW CORPORATION LIMITED, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD

Trump defies Congress

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 12 : 20-Dec-19

US President Donald Trump maintains that he had done nothing wrong with regard to his dealings with the Ukrainian president, after the House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment. The article on abuse of power was passed by 230 votes to 197, with just two Democrats voting against it; the article on obstruction of congress was passed 229 votes to 198, with three Democrats voting against it. Trump will now face a trial in the Senate; he is likely to be acquitted, as the Republicans control the upper house. However, the impeachment may have significant implications for the 2020 presidential election.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT