Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Mar-20
A majority of 56% of Australian businesses say Australia is in its first ‘recession’ in nearly three decades, according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey of 621 Australian businesses. Analysing by States shows over two-thirds (68%) of Queensland businesses say Australia is now in a ‘recession’ – higher than any other State. A majority of businesses in New South Wales (56%) and a slight majority in Victoria (51%) also agree that Australia is now in a ‘recession’. Although a small sample, Tasmanian businesses are more likely than those in any of the three larger States to say Australia is in a ‘recession’. In contrast a slim majority of businesses in both Western Australia (53%) and South Australia (52%) say Australia is ‘not’ in a ‘recession’.
ROY MORGAN LIMITED
Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: Online : 18-Mar-20
Businesses across the nation have declared the economy in recession for the first time in almost 30 years, as the death toll from the deadly coronavirus reaches five and infections soar above 450. Almost 60 per cent of more than 600 Australian businesses surveyed by Roy Morgan said the economy was in "recession" already, including almost 70 per cent in Queensland – more than any other state – whose tourism sector is expected to be hit especially hard by the collapse of international travel. "Some industries have been hit harder than others but majorities of businesses in most industries agree Australia is in a ‘recession’ including Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale trade, Accommodation & Food services and Education & Training," said Roy Morgan chief executive Michelle Levine. "Although it’s obvious Australia is already in a ‘recession’ there are only a few things that can save Australia from experiencing a full-blown ‘depression’ which is recognised as a fall in GDP of at least 10 per cent," she added. The last recession in Australia in the early 1990s saw the jobless rate surge from 6.6 per cent to 9.5 per cent in the 12 months to 1991.
ROY MORGAN LIMITED
Original article by Michael Janda
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 5-Mar-20
Official data shows that the Australian economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.2 per cent year-on-year. The general consensus of economists was for quarterly growth of 0.3-0.4 per cent and annual growth of two per cent. However, the full impact of the bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak will not be felt until GDP data for the first quarter of 2020 is released. Meanwhile, overall domestic demand increased by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter, while business investment and resident construction fell. Sarah Hunter of BIS Oxford Economics says the economy is likely to contract in the March quarter, adding that the risk of a recession has increased.
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD
Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 21-Feb-20
Private domestic demand contracted in the year to 30 September, according to a chart published in the Reserve Bank’s latest ‘Statement of Monetary Policy’. This means the Australian domestic private economy was effectively in recession even before the negative impact of the bushfires and the coronavirus. With the cash rate at just 0.75 per cent, the RBA cannot do much more to stimulate the economy, so it is essentially up to the federal government to do so. This could include reforms to workplace relations, tax and competition, along with ongoing infrastructure spending and maintenance.
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA
Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Dec-19
Kristina Clifton of the Commonwealth Bank says high commodity prices were a big contributor to Australia’s $7.9bn current account surplus for the September quarter. Official data shows that government spending was also higher than forecast during the quarter. The figures have strengthened expectations that the latest national accounts data will show that the economy grew by at least 0.5 per cent in the quarter, and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. This would in turn reduce pressure on the federal government to pursue stimulus measures.
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS
Original article by Michael Roddan, Elias Visontay
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 18-Oct-19
The Reserve Bank’s deputy governor Guy Debelle has told an industry conference in Sydney that a forecast slump in dwelling investment could reduce GDP growth by one per cent. The Master Builders Association’s chief economist Shane Garrett has called on the federal government to take steps to bring about an end to the current housing downturn as soon as possible, while Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese says Prime Minister Scott Morrison has no plans for stimulating the economy.
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MASTER BUILDERS’ ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET
Original article by Rosie Lewis, Simon Benson, Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 17-Oct-19
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has downplayed concerns about the outlook for the Australian economy, arguing that good economic and financial management is needed in times of uncertainty. Labor leader Anthony Albanese has responded to the International Monetary Fund’s latest downgrade of its economic growth forecast for Australia by calling for a stimulus package. Former federal treasurer Peter Costello has in turn urged supply-side reforms, arguing that fiscal and monetary policy have reached the limits of their effectiveness.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION
Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 8-Oct-19
The Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for International Development has developed an Atlas of Economic Complexity, with Australia being ranked as having one of the least complex economies. The Atlas measures the diversity and sophistication of national exports, with almost all of Australia’s exports not requiring a degree to make. The Center for International Development contends that for countries to get richer that they need to develop more sophisticated products, but Australia has been very tardy when it comes to innovation.
HARVARD UNIVERSITY. HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL. CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Original article by Matthew Cranston, John Kehoe, Aleks Vickovich
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-Oct-19
The Australian dollar reached an intra-day low of $US66.94 in local trading on 1 October, after the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the cash rate to 0.75 per cent. RBA governor Philip Lowe signalled that the central bank is prepared to further ease monetary policy if necessary. The third rate cut in 2019 has heightened expectations that the cash rate will fall to 0.5 per cent in November. Andrew Boak of Goldman Sachs warns that this may be insufficient to lift inflation to within the RBA’s target range over the next several years. He adds that this in turn could necessitate further rate cuts, as well as the potential for quantitative easing.
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB
Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 19 : 6-Aug-19
Rocco Braeuniger, Amazon’s country manager for Australia, says he has not seen any indication that the retail sector is in the poor state that some retailers and media commentators have claimed. He was speaking at the launch of a new Amazon service called Launchpad, which aims to help start-ups and small businesses that want sell their products via Amazon. A spokesperson for David Jones’s parent company Woolworths Holdings recently claimed that the retail sector is in a recession.
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