AUSTRALIA – ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Stimulus calls to ease as mine exports surge

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Dec-19

Kristina Clifton of the Commonwealth Bank says high commodity prices were a big contributor to Australia’s $7.9bn current account surplus for the September quarter. Official data shows that government spending was also higher than forecast during the quarter. The figures have strengthened expectations that the latest national accounts data will show that the economy grew by at least 0.5 per cent in the quarter, and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. This would in turn reduce pressure on the federal government to pursue stimulus measures.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Building slump to hit whole economy

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Elias Visontay
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 18-Oct-19

The Reserve Bank’s deputy governor Guy Debelle has told an industry conference in Sydney that a forecast slump in dwelling investment could reduce GDP growth by one per cent. The Master Builders Association’s chief economist Shane Garrett has called on the federal government to take steps to bring about an end to the current housing downturn as soon as possible, while ­Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese says Prime Minister Scott Morrison has no plans for stimulating the economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MASTER BUILDERS’ ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

PM to keep his cool on economy

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Original article by Rosie Lewis, Simon Benson, Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 17-Oct-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has downplayed concerns about the outlook for the Australian economy, arguing that good economic and financial management is needed in times of uncertainty. Labor leader Anthony ­Albanese has responded to the International Monetary Fund’s latest downgrade of its economic growth forecast for Australia by calling for a stimulus package. Former federal treasurer Peter Costello has in turn urged supply-side reforms, arguing that fiscal and monetary policy have reached the limits of their effectiveness.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

Australia: rich, but getting dumber

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Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 8-Oct-19

The Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for International Development has developed an Atlas of Economic Complexity, with Australia being ranked as having one of the least complex economies. The Atlas measures the diversity and sophistication of national exports, with almost all of Australia’s exports not requiring a degree to make. The Center for International Development contends that for countries to get richer that they need to develop more sophisticated products, but Australia has been very tardy when it comes to innovation.

CORPORATES
HARVARD UNIVERSITY. HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL. CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

RBA one step away from QE

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, John Kehoe, Aleks Vickovich
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-Oct-19

The Australian dollar reached an intra-day low of $US66.94 in local trading on 1 October, after the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the cash rate to 0.75 per cent. RBA governor Philip Lowe signalled that the central bank is prepared to further ease monetary policy if necessary. The third rate cut in 2019 has heightened expectations that the cash rate will fall to 0.5 per cent in November. Andrew Boak of Goldman Sachs warns that this may be insufficient to lift inflation to within the RBA’s target range over the next several years. He adds that this in turn could necessitate further rate cuts, as well as the potential for quantitative easing.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Recession – what recession? asks Amazon

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 19 : 6-Aug-19

Rocco Braeuniger, Amazon’s country manager for Australia, says he has not seen any indication that the retail sector is in the poor state that some retailers and media commentators have claimed. He was speaking at the launch of a new Amazon service called Launchpad, which aims to help start-ups and small businesses that want sell their products via Amazon. A spokesperson for David Jones’s parent company Woolworths Holdings recently claimed that the retail sector is in a recession.

CORPORATES
AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, DAVID JONES LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS LIMITED

Labor decries Coalition complacency on economy

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Jul-19

Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson contends that a slowdown in the economy is not the main reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates in two consecutive months. Rather, he suggests that it is because the RBA has changed its view on how many new jobs need to be created in order to stimulate wage growth. Labor’s treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers says the opinion expressed in the latest Deloitte Business Outlook report is "just one opinion in a range of opinions". Chalmers claims that the Australian economy has gotten worse since the federal election, but that the Coalition still has its feet up.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

RBA chief backs Frydenberg plan

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Original article by Richard Ferguson, Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 12-Jul-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe says he is in full agreement with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s view that the Australian economy remains sound. Lowe and Frydenberg met for two hours in Melbourne on 11 July. Lowe said after the meeting that it was a "remarkable achievement" that more Australians have a job now than at any previous time in the country’s history, while shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers claimed that Frydenberg is letting the RBA do nearly all of the heavy lifting.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Lowe leaves door open for more

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Original article by Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 3-Jul-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled the potential for further easing of monetary policy after the cash rate was reduced to a record low of one per cent on 2 July. Lowe says there is still a lot of spare capacity in the economy, and it should be possible to reduce both the unemployment and underemployment rate. It was the first time the RBA had cut official interest rates in two consecutive months since 2012, and Paul Bloxham of HSBC says this suggests that the central bank is worried about economic growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cut will be little help, says Westpac

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Original article by James Eyers, James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 17 : 7-May-19

The futures market has priced in a 38 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate on 7 May. Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer warns that a rate cut will have limited impact on economic growth and consumer spending, given that the cash rate is already at a historic low. He argues that government spending has been a key driver of economic growth, but the political debates needs to have a greater focus on measures that will drive private sector growth and investment. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen says the fact that interest rates could potentially fall further demonstrates the "real concern" about the economy under the Coalition.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, CLIME ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT