AUSTRALIA – ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Commodity prices surged 40pc in 2016

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Geoff Winestock
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Jan-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s commodity price index rose 84 per cent in Australian dollar terms in 2016. Manufacturing is also in good shape, with the Australian Industry Group’s performance of manufacturing index being at 55.4 per cent in December 2016. In agriculture, prices declined about five per cent in 2016.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Budget turmoil as GDP slumps

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Dec-16

Treasurer Scott Morrison has attributed the larger-than-forecast downturn in GDP growth in the September 2016 quarter to a sustained decline in business investment over the last three years. The national accounts data shows that GDP growth contracted by 0.5 per cent during the period, while annual growth fell from 3.1 per cent in the June quarter to just 1.8 per cent. Morrison has downplayed the potential for a recession, while Westpac’s Bill Evans argues that a number of one-off factors contributed to the poor economic performance, including the federal election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s comment on the rise in Roy Morgan November Business Confidence

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-16

Business Confidence increased for the third straight month, up by 0.5pts (+0.4%) in November to 116.7. This is the highest Business Confidence has been since the Federal Election in July when the Turnbull Government was returned with a majority of only one seat. Analysing the movement of Business Confidence across the States in November shows a strong increase in Queensland being the main driver of this month’s increase – now clearly above the national average along with a slight improvement in Victoria while Tasmania continues to have the highest Business Confidence of any State. In contrast Business Confidence is virtually unchanged in Australia’s largest State of New South Wales and is down significantly in the mining State of Western Australia – now clearly the lowest of any State. Business Confidence in South Australia also fell for the second straight month following the State’s widespread blackout in late September and is now in line with the national average. In terms of industries, the most confident industries in November were the Retail trade industry heading into the most important time of the year over the Christmas-New Year’s sales period, Accommodation and food services which also traditionally benefits from the Summer holiday period and Public administration, safety and security – all of these industries were more than 10% above the national average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Forget America, the public are voting with their pockets

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Harold Mitchell
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 21 : 25-Nov-16

Australian economist Ross Garnaut warned in a 2013 book that the nation was poised to become an "unlucky country". However, data from Roy Morgan Research highlights the overall health of the domestic economy. The research also shows that Australians are becoming more positive about globalisation, retailers are upbeat about their outlook and consumers are spending more on leisure and entertainment. Meanwhile, rising support for the Federal Opposition in the Morgan poll shows that more Australians believe that the Government is taking the nation in the wrong direction.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s comment on the rise in Roy Morgan October Business Confidence

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-16

Business Confidence increased for the second straight month, up by 1.3pts (+1.1%) in October to 116.2 – the highest Business Confidence has been since the Federal Election in July. The most confident industries in October were the primary industries of Agriculture, forestry and fishing, Mining – which has significantly recovered from lows earlier in 2016, Education and training, Accommodation and Rental, hiring and real estate services – all significantly above the national average. Industries lagging in confidence in October include Transport, postal and warehousing, Arts and recreational services, Personal, repair and other services and the utilities of Electricity, gas, water and waste. It is no surprise to see lower business confidence in the Electricity industry given the problems with the South Australian power system and the well-anticipated recent decision to close Victoria’s Hazelwood power stations (responsible for up to 25% of Victorian baseload energy demand).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Flexible labour laws saved jobs, says RBA

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 28-Sep-16

The Reserve Bank of Australia has released a discussion paper which concludes that labour market reforms such as putting a greater emphasis on enterprise bargaining may have reduced the impact of recent downturns in the economy. The paper’s authors suggest that more flexible workplace laws may have encouraged companies to reduce employees’ working hours in response to weaker economic growth – such as during the global financial crisis – instead of retrenching staff.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Business Confidence slumps in August – down 6.5% to 108.6 after interest rate cut; lowest since Turnbull became PM

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Sep-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 6.5% to 108.6 in August. The fall in Business Confidence comes after the RBA cut interest rates to a record low 1.5% in early August. The fall in Business Confidence was far larger than the small fall of the Australian All Ordinaries in August – the All Ordinaries ended August at 5,529 (down 2.0% (or 115pts) from July 31, 2016, 5,644) although the All Ordinaries has fallen further in September – now at 5,324 as of September 12. The fall in Business Confidence in August means Business Confidence has dipped below the 6yr average of 116.6.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Gary Morgan’s comment on Roy Morgan July Business Confidence

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-16

Although the result in the House of Representatives at the recent Federal Election was disappointing, the result in the Senate is probably better for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. The increase in the cross-bench at first appears challenging for the Turnbull Government; however, the fact is that most of the new Senators are right-of-centre and likely to be favourable to the Government’s broader Budget and policy agenda. Two of the most important policies the Government took to the election were significant corporate tax cuts and the re-introduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) to improve workplace productivity in the Construction industry. Despite the challenges, the Government should be able to pass these important reforms which will stimulate an Australian economy still dealing with the end of the mining boom.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business Confidence lower in July – down 2.8% to 116.1 during month of political uncertainty

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 2.8% to 116.1 in July 2016 following the inconclusive Australian Federal Election at the start of July. The fall in Business Confidence comes despite an upward trend on the Australian sharemarket in July – the All Ordinaries closed the end of July at 5,644 (up 6.3% (or 334pts) from June 30, 5310). This was the highest close for exactly a year since July 31, 2015 (5,681). The fall in Business Confidence in July means Business Confidence has dipped just below the 6yr average of 116.7.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Gary Morgan’s comment on the surge in Roy Morgan Business Confidence in June

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jul-16

Business Confidence was up 7.6 points in June 2016, to 119.5. However, in July it may "take a hit" given the increased size of the crossbench in the Senate. All businesses will have their eyes on the Coalition’s promised corporate tax cuts – reducing the corporate tax rate for large businesses to 25 per cent (from the current 30 per cent) over the next decade. The Coalition’s election victory means this policy is still on the agenda and the prospect of tax cuts over the next few years should continue to support Business Confidence. Investment certainty is crucial for larger businesses undertaking major projects with substantial investment expenditure.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED