Business Confidence surges in June – up 6.8% to 119.5 prior to Federal Election

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jul-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence jumped 6.8 per cent to 119.5 in June 2016. The rise in Business Confidence comes despite a downward trend on the Australian sharemarket in June – the All Ordinaries closed at the end of June at 5,310.40 (down 2.5 per cent -or 137.4 points – from May 31). However, the large rise in Business Confidence in June was likely more tied to the perception in the closing weeks of the Federal Election campaign that the Coalition would retain Government with a narrow victory – which turned out to be correct – despite a week of uncertainty following the Election. The increased level of Roy Morgan Business Confidence in June is now back above the five-year average (116.7).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business Confidence plunges in May – down 9.1% to 111.9 following Federal Budget and Election uncertainty

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-May-16

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence fell by 9.1 per cent to 111.9 in May 2016. Business confidence is now at its lowest since a 2016 low of 110.6 in January. The fall in Business Confidence comes even after a slight improvement on the Australian sharemarket in May. However, the large drop in Business Confidence is likely more tied to a poorly received Federal Budget in early May and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Federal Election. The weakest indicators in May relate to the upcoming year, which suggests the impact of election uncertainty. Net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months have dropped to 20.6ppts (down 17.5ppts in May) and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" are now 12.1ppts (down 14.2ppts).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, DCNS SA

Michele Levine on the Sky Business Channel with Peter Switzer

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-May-16

Roy Morgan Research CEO Michele Levine appeared on Peter Switzer’s TV show on the Sky News Business Channel on 25 May 2016. Levine discussed the findings of the latest Roy Morgan Image of Professions Survey, which has been carried out since 1979. Levine also notes that Roy Morgan Business Confidence has fallen by nine per cent in May, to 111.9.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, SKY NEWS

Business Confidence jumps again in April – up 7.4pts to 123.1

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Apr-16

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence rose by 7.4 points (or 6.4 per cent) to 123.1 in April 2016. Business confidence has now risen 12.5 points over the last three months, since a 2016 low of 110.6 in January. The rise in Business Confidence comes after more improvement on the Australian sharemarket in April, and as commodity prices rebounded in recent months following increased global stimulus. The level of business confidence in April is clearly positive for the economy overall and is now above the five-year average of 116.8. The strongest indicators in April relate to the upcoming year, with expectations of business performance over the next 12 months (+38.1) and whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" (+26.3).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

Business Confidence rises again in March – up 2.4pts to 115.7

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Mar-16

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence rose by 2.4 points to 115.7 in March 2016, and it has now risen 5.1 points over the last two months. The rise in business confidence comes after steady improvement on the Australian sharemarket in March, after the All Ordinaries Index dropped in both January and February to start the year amid global economic concerns. The level of business confidence in March is clearly positive for the economy overall and just below the five-year average of 116.6. The weakest indicators are the performance of the business compared to a year ago (+7) and expectations of economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months (+11).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

Australian Roy Morgan Business Confidence continues to drift lower in January

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-16

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence fell by 3.9 points to 110.6 in January 2016, following a decline of 4.2 points in December and 0.6 points in November. The combined drop of 8.7 points (down 7.3 per cent) over the last three months is an indication that the initial increase in confidence following Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister has been outweighed by the negative local and international economic environment, which saw the ASX decline by 8.6 per cent in the first three weeks of January. Despite the negative trend in business confidence over the last three months, it is still 7.8 per cent above the level prior to the appointment of Turnbull. Business confidence is now below the five-year average of 116.8 and is a sign that confidence is very fragile and easily impacted by negative economic events.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation uptick takes interest rate cut off the table

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 28-Jan-16

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that consumer inflation rose by a higher-than-expected 0.4 per cent in the December 2015 quarter. The annual inflation rate was also above expectations at 1.7 per cent. Financial markets have responded to the inflation data by downgrading the chances of a rise in the cash rate in February to just four per cent. Morgan Stanley’s Daniel Blake says a mid-year rate cut remains on the cards given the CPI data.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF JAPAN, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Australian Roy Morgan Business Confidence declines further in December

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jan-16

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence fell by 4.2 points to 114.5 in December 2015, following an 0.6 per cent decline in November. The combined drop of 4.8 points (or four per cent) over the last two months is a likely indication that the initial burst of confidence following Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister is beginning to "cool off", although business confidence remains 11.6 per cent above the level prior to his appointment. The drop in business confidence in December was mainly due to deterioration in the outlook for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, which has fallen to its lowest level since August. Despite this poor outlook for Australia over the coming year, businesses still maintain a positive attitude, with 60 per cent agreeing that the next 12 months will be a good time to invest in growing their business, well up on the 51 per cent seen in August.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian Roy Morgan Business Confidence still positive in November but showing signs of "cooling off"

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Dec-15

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence fell by 0.6 points to 118.7 in November 2015, but remained above the five-year average of 116.9. This decline in confidence was probably to be expected, given the big increase in the two months following Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister, which saw business confidence increase by 16.3 per cent. The small drop in business confidence in November was a result of only marginal declines in both the five-year economic outlook and the view that the next 12 months would be a good time to invest in growing the business. However, both of these measures remain at positive levels and are above the five-year average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Gary Morgan – Business confidence surveys and selective reporting by the Australian media

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Nov-15

It is impossible to stop "organisations" conducting "questionable" polls – sometimes ill-conceived and too often completely self-serving or even mischievous polls. However, it is a disgrace when Australia’s national news services "selectively report" only such polls. Australia’s media has a critical role to play in keeping the Australian people informed. Australia’s major media is concentrated and controlled by too few – probably soon to be fewer! This makes the ethics of journalists and media owners even more important. Good governance dictates journalists must be briefed to report all facts honestly – not report "selectively" to support their own opinion.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED