AUSTRALIA – POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

Rate cut will be little help, says Westpac

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Original article by James Eyers, James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 17 : 7-May-19

The futures market has priced in a 38 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate on 7 May. Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer warns that a rate cut will have limited impact on economic growth and consumer spending, given that the cash rate is already at a historic low. He argues that government spending has been a key driver of economic growth, but the political debates needs to have a greater focus on measures that will drive private sector growth and investment. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen says the fact that interest rates could potentially fall further demonstrates the "real concern" about the economy under the Coalition.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, CLIME ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Three weeks locked at ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% – Palmer "jumps" 1.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-19

For the third straight week the two major parties are locked in a tight contest with a slight edge to the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis, according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend of May 4/5, 2019 with a representative cross-section of 826 Australian electors. Primary support for both major parties fell this week, but there was no change to the close overall two-party preferred result. The L-NP now has a primary vote of 38.5% (down 1%) and is clearly ahead of the ALP on 34% (down 2%) while Greens support is up 1.5% to 11%. Support for One Nation is up 1.5% to 4% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 1.5% to 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down 1.5% to 9%. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined by 2.5pts to 99 with slightly more Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ than ‘heading in the right direction’. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says both major parties require a small swing to claim a workable majority of 77 seats in the expanded 151 seat Parliament, and with the tight nature of the race it could again be independents and minor party candidates who decide who will be Prime Minister after next week’s election.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

Senators reject ALP tax grab

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Original article by Simon Benson, Michael McKenna, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-May-19

Key upper house crossbenchers have rejected claims by shadow treasurer Chris Bowen that Labor will have a mandate for tax reform if it wins the federal election. Centre Alliance senator Stirling Griff contends that Labor will only have a mandate if it gains a majority in the Senate. Griff opposes Labor’s proposal to abolish cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits, although he says Centre Alliance may be willing to negotiate regarding changes to the negative gearing regime. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson also opposes the franking credit reforms.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN CONSERVATIVES

How Twitter drip-fed Watergate

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Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 36 : 3-May-19

The ‘Watergate’ saga that has embroiled Energy Minister Angus Taylor has arguably changed the rules when it comes to news reporting in Australia. The story was sparked by an anonymous Twitter account in early April, which implied that Taylor had benefited from the sale of water rights to the federal government by Eastern Australia Agriculture in 2017. The rights related to two Queensland cotton farms; Taylor had advised Eastern Australia Agriculture on the purchase of these farms a decade earlier. Although journalists have historically relied on anonymous sources, it is extremely rare for them to use sources that they cannot identify.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, EASTERN AUSTRALIA AGRICULTURE PTY LTD, TWITTER INCORPORATED

Workers face $20b pay hit from superannuation rise

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 3-May-19

The compulsory superannuation guarantee is slated to rise from 9.5 per cent to 12 per cent over stages between 2021 and 2025. However, the Productivity Commission recently called for any increase to be put on hold until an independent inquiry into the Australian retirement income system has been held, while the Grattan Institute argues that lifting the employer contribution to 12 per cent would cost workers $20 billion a year in take-home pay, as well as making wage growth even more sluggish than it already is.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Morrison defends his climate policy as cost free

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Original article by Simon Evans, Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 3-May-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the Coalition can achieve its carbon emissions reduction target without hurting the economy. Morrison contends that this is because the cost of doing so will be borne by taxpayers. His claims are at odds with modelling undertaken by economist Brian Fisher, who says the Coalition’s climate policy will impose some cost on the economy, although not as much as Labor’s policy. Labor’s climate spokesman Mark Butler claims that Fisher’s assumptions are grossly flawed.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

Unions to face wait for pay reforms

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 3-May-19

Shadow workplace relations minister Brendan O’Connor has indicated that Labor will consult all stakeholders regarding its plan to reinstate industry-wide enterprise bargaining. Senior Labor sources have suggested that the extensive consultation that will be required means the reforms are likely to be delayed for at least a year if Labor wins the federal election. Law professor Andrew Stewart says Labor is wise to delay such reforms given the large number of items on its policy agenda. Labor intends to prioritise reforms such as restoring penalty rates.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

Coalition faces hostile Senate if it wins

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 2-May-19

A re-elected Coalition government could require the support of the Greens to pass legislation in the Senate, depending on the number of crossbenchers in the upper house from 1 July. Its income tax cuts in particular would be in doubt, given the Greens’ opposition to the package. The government proposes to reconvene parliament before 30 June to capitalise on a crossbench that is likely to be more favourable to its tax cuts than the new Senate. Greens leader Richard Di Natale favours tax increases rather than tax cuts.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED

Price carbon cuts? Yes you can

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-May-19

Independent modelling has concluded that GDP growth could be reduced by a cumulative $264bn by 2030 if Labor’s carbon emissions reduction policy includes unlimited access to international carbon credits. This could rise to around $1.2bn if the use of foreign carbon credits is restricted or banned. The modelling is outlined in a new report by former bureaucrat Brian Fisher, which will be released on 2 May. Labor’s climate change spokesman Mark Butler has previously argued that its emissions reduction policy cannot be costed.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND SCIENCES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Aged care next for a pay rise from taxpayers

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-May-19

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says Labor has no plans to extend its taxpayer-funded pay rise for childcare workers to other low-paid sectors. He says the policy takes into account the "unique" status of childcare workers. However, Council on the Ageing CEO Ian Yates says increasing the wages of aged-care staff should also be a priority for Labor if it wins the election, noting that they are also underpaid and undertrained. Shorten has signalled that Labor could look at wage increases for these workers after the aged-care royal commission delivers its final report in April 2020.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COUNCIL ON THE AGEING, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO AGED CARE QUALITY AND SAFETY