AUSTRALIA – POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

Albanese’s budget deficit lie challenged

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Apr-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is continuing to attract scrutiny over his claims regarding the size of the budget deficit that Labor inherited in May 2022. Albanese recently responded to a report from S&P Global on the future of Australia’s triple-A credit rating by stating that the Coalition had left Labor with a $78bn deficit, which it subsequently turned into a $22bn surplus. However, the $78bn deficit was merely a Treasury forecast during the 2022 election campaign, and the final budget outcome for 2021-22 was a deficit of just $32bn. The surplus of $22bn was in fact for 2022-23, which was Labor’s first full financial year in office.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Chalmers stakes future on staying AAA

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Apr-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has downplayed concerns that Australia’s coveted ‘AAA’ credit rating may be downgraded. S&P Global has warned of this possibility due to election campaign promises and the growing use of so-called ‘off-budget’ spending. Chalmers says the federal govermment respects the global ratings agency and concedes that its "opinion matters". However, he adds that Labor’s "responsible economic management" means there would be no reason for a credit rating downgrade if it retains office on Saturday. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry’s CEO Andrew McKellar says the S&P report is a "wake-up call" for both of the major political parties, and that budget repair must be a priority for the next government.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, S&P GLOBAL INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

Tax warning for 130,000: Labor out to get you

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 6 : 29-Apr-25

The federal government is continuing to attract scrutiny over its plans to tax the unrealised capital gains of superannuation funds. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor says Labor is "coming after superannuation", despite stating prior to the 2022 election that it did not plan to do so; he adds that the policy will particularly affect people such as farmers and small business owners. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says it is only a "modest change" that will affect a small number of people with more than $3m in their superannuation fund. Meanwhile, Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson has expressed concern about the policy in a letter to the firm’s 130,000 investors.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT

Overseas students to cop 25pc visa fee hike

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Original article by Natasha Bita
The Australian – Page: 7 : 29-Apr-25

International students currently pay $1,600 to apply for a visa, but the federal government proposes to increase this to $2,000 from 1 July. Finance Minister Katy Gallagher says the 25 per cent increase is a "sensible and modest change" that puts an appropriate price on the benefits of studying in Australia. However, Universities Australia CEO Luke Sheehy says the nation already has the world’s highest student visa fees, while the Regional Universities Network has warned that the proposed increase will affect the desirability and competitiveness of Australia in the international education market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, UNIVERSITIES AUSTRALIA LIMITED, REGIONAL UNIVERSITIES NETWORK

Labor releases election promise costings including saving of $6.4bn from cutting more consultants

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Original article by Henry Belot, Patrick Commins
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 29-Apr-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers released the federal government’s election policy costings on Monday. Amongst other things, Labor expects to reduce government expenditure by about $6.4bn over four years by further reducing the use of consultants and labour firms. Finance Minister Katy Gallagher says the proposed cutbacks will not affect the quality of the service provided by federal public servants. The government’s plan to increase visa application fees for international students is in turn expected to boost revenue by about $760m.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

PM scores AAA for denial

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 29-Apr-25

S&P Global has warned that Australia’s coveted ‘AAA’ credit rating is at risk due to the erosion of "sound fiscal management". The firm has raised concern about how the major political parties will fund their election promises if they win the election on 3 May, noting that the budget deficit could widen if the election promises are not funded via revenue or cost savings. S&P also expressed concern about the growing use of so-called ‘off-budget’ spending. However, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has rejected suggestions that Australia could face a credit rating downgrade, while Treasurer Jim Chalmers says Opposition leader Peter Dutton and the Coalition are the biggest risk to the nation’s credit rating.

CORPORATES
S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Roy Morgan Poll: ALP in front but two-party preferred lead cut significantly as early voting favours the Coalition: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-25

If a Federal Election were held last weekend the ALP would have been returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 53% (up 0.9% from the 2022 Federal Election) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 47% (down 0.9%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. This result represents a two-party preferred swing of 2.5% to the L-NP Coalition compared to a week ago. Despite the large two-party preferred swing, primary support for the major parties was little changed with the Coalition on 34.5% (up 0.5%) now just ahead of the ALP on 34% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens dropped 1.5% to 13% and One Nation increased 1.5% to 7.5%. This is not a ‘direct transfer’ of voting intention but indicates movement between the two major parties and the two key minor parties of the ‘left’ (Greens) and the ‘right’ (One Nation). An unchanged 11% support other minor parties and independents. Within that bloc, the largest support is for so-called ‘Teal Independents’ (2%) and Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ (1.5%). These results take into account that minor parties and independents are not running in every seat.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, TRUMPET OF PATRIOTS

Labor spends more than Coalition on election TV ads but Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots leads YouTube outlay

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Original article by Amanda Meade, Henry Belot
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 24-Apr-25

Data shows that Labor has spent $5.8m on free-to-air and subscription TV advertising so far during the federal election campaign, while Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party has spend $5.6m. In contrast, the Coalition has spent just $4.2m on broadcast TV advertising to date. The major political parties have also embraced social media, with Labor having spent nearly $700,000 to advertise on Facebook and Instagram since the election began; the Liberal Party has in turn spent $385,266 on these two platforms. Meanwhile, the Coalition has spent $2.3m on YouTube advertising, while Labor has spent $2m and Trumpet of Patriots has spent $4m.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, TRUMPET OF PATRIOTS

Australians rush to cast early votes in record numbers

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 24-Apr-25

Data from the Australian Electoral Commission shows that a record 542,000 people voted on Tuesday, when pre-poll voting began. This compares with just 314,000 on the first day of pre-poll voting in 2022. The AEC has also sent out ballot papers to 2.2 million people who have registered for a postal vote. The growing shift to early voting – just 46 per cent of Australians voted on the actual election day in 2022 – has implications for the major political parties and individual candidates, given that some key policies have not yet been announced. The total cost of each party’s policies are also typically released in the last week of an election campaign.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION

Super tax plan risks $25bn exodus

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Apr-25

Financial services industry veteran Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed tax on the unrealised capital gains of superannuation funds is the ‘sleeper’ issue of the federal election campaign. He adds that the policy should be enough for Labor to lose office on 3 May. Labor intends to set the threshold at $3m, but the Greens will demand that it be reduced to $2m in return for supporting it. Wilson says he is receiving enquires from clients about shifting money from self-managed super funds into property due to concerns about the proposed tax, and he estimates that around 24,500 members of SMSFs could seek to withdraw money to avoid the threshold.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS