AUSTRALIA – POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

The one-cut wonder

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Original article by Greg Brown, Jack Quail, Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 19-Feb-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the first official interest rate cut in more than four years will have no impact on the timing of the federal election, and that the budget is still set for 25 March. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25 basis point interest rate cut on Tuesday has provided Albanese with a trigger for an early election. RBA governor ­Michele Bullock has downplayed expectations of further interest rate relief, contending that the central bank’s board will need more evidence that inflation is falling to the middle of its 2-3 per cent target range. The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in the year to December, and the central bank now expects it to fall to 2.7 per cent in June. The election must be held no later than 17 May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Small business in recession as public service thrives

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Original article by Millie Muroi
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 18-Feb-25

Deputy Opposition leader Sussan Ley says the number of small businesses that employ people in Australia has fallen from around 953,000 to 922,000 since Labor won the federal election in May 2022. Ley adds that the nation appears to experiencing a small business recession, while the federal government has hired about one permanent public servant for every small business that is collapsing. The Coalition has flagged public service cutbacks if it wins the upcoming election, with Labor having hired an additional 36,000 public servants during its first term in office.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Cost hit for health: bulk billing going backwards in every seat since ALP came to power

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Original article by Noah Yim
The Australian – Page: 5 : 18-Feb-25

Analysis of data from the Department of Health shows that the national bulk-billing rate for general practitioners fell to 77.3 per cent in 2023-24, compared with 88.3 per cent in 2021-22. It equates to a decline of about 40 million bulk-billed GP visits over this period. Shadow health Anne Ruston says it is particularly concerning that bulk-billing rates have declined in all federal electorates since Labor took office in May 2022; she adds that many Australians simply cannot afford to see a doctor. Health Minister Mark Butler contends that Labor’s record investment in Medicare resulted in an additional six million bulk-billed GP visits between November 2023 and December 2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH AND AGED CARE

Roy Morgan Poll: Federal vote unchanged; Coalition 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-25

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament, with the Coalition on 51.5% (unchanged) just ahead of the ALP on 48.5% (also unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. The Coalition or ALP would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. This week primary support for both major parties decreased, with the Coalition down 1% to 39.5% and the ALP down 1% to 28%. Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 12.5%. Support for One Nation increased 1.5% to 5.5%, support for Other Parties dropped 1.5% to 4.5% and support for Independents increased 0.5% to 10%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

PM, Dutton get ready to rumble – officially

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 5 : 18-Feb-25

Federal government MPs are believed to have been told to prepare for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to formally announce the date of the election sometime between 3 and 11 March. Strategists from all political parties and activist groups such as Climate 200 now anticipate an election on either 5 or 12 April, with the latter seen to be the most likely. Climate 200 will help fund candidates in 35 seats nationwide, although this includes just four seats that are currently held by Labor. Meanwhile, history may be against Opposition leader Peter Dutton, given that no federal government has lost office after only one term since 1931.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, CLIMATE 200 PTY LTD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ALP’s Michele bollocking: cut rates now

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Original article by Greg Brown, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Feb-25

Labor MP Mike Freelander says the Reserve Bank of Australia should reduce the cash rate by 50 basis points at its board meeting today. He is among a number of Labor backbenchers who have urged the RBA to ease monetary policy, even though Treasurer Jim Chalmers has told government MPs to avoid publicly commenting on the issue. Opposition leader Peter Dutton favours a rate cut, arguing that families need interest rates relief after 12 increases under the current government. However, EQ Economics’ chief economist Warren Hogan says the case for a rate cut is pretty weak at present, and the RBA should leave the cash rate on hold.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, EQ ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Libs pan Chalmers over gross politicisation of public service

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 12-Feb-25

Shadow finance minister Jane Hume has criticised the federal government for getting Treasury officials to undertake costings for the Coalition’s proposal to give small businesses a tax deduction of up to $20,000 a year for business lunches. The major political parties have traditionally not costed each others policies since the independent Parliamentary Budget Office was established. Hume says public servants must not engage in ‘political activities’ as part of their employment, and she has urged Public Service Commissioner Gordon de Brouwer to emphasise this in the lead-up to the federal election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

Dutton to RBA: resist pressure to cut rates

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Original article by Michael Read, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Feb-25

Bond market traders have priced in a 95 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate next week. The case for a rate cut was strengthened by recent data showing that the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation has fallen to 3.2 per cent. However, Opposition leader Peter Dutton says there is concern that the RBA may need to tighten monetary policy again if it reduces the cash rate too soon. He has urged RBA governor Michele Bullock to act in the nation’s best interests rather than yielding to political pressure to cut interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Albanese government says it will acquire collapsed Rex Airlines if no other buyers emerge

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Original article by Natassia Chrysanthos, Mike Foley
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 12-Feb-25

The federal government has indicated that it will provide support to any potential buyers of the failed Rex Airlines to ensure that the carrier’s regional services continue. The government has emphasised that it is not participating in the sale process, but would be open to acquiring Rex if no private-sector buyer emerges. The government became Rex’s biggest creditor in January after agreeing to buy the $50m debt of the airline’s key investor. The government also provided Rex with an $80m loan facility to enable it to continue servicing regional routes until mid-2025. Rex has total debt of about $500m.

CORPORATES
REX AIRLINES PTY LTD, REGIONAL EXPRESS HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX REX

Australia accused of breaking its word on exports as Trump presses go on tariffs

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Original article by David Crary, Michael Koziol, Olivia Ireland
The Age – Page: Online : 12-Feb-25

President Donald Trump signed an executive order to impose a tariff of 25 per cent on all steel and aluminium imports to the US on Tuesday, shortly after discussing the issue with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Trump said there will be "no exceptions", although he had earlier told Albanese that an exemption will be considered due to factors such as America’s trade surplus with Australia. The executive order contended that Australia’s exports of primary aluminium to the US have surged in recent years, despite a verbal commitment to limit these exports. The tariffs will take effect from 12 March, giving the government just one month to negotiate an exemption in the lead-up to the federal election.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET