AUSTRALIA – POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

Roy Morgan Poll: ALP holds election winning lead pre-Budget despite small swing to Coalition this week: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Mar-25

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 53% (down 1.5% from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 47% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Roy Morgan Government Confidence dropped 4.5 points to 80 with only 32.5% (down 2.5%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 52.5% (up 2%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Primary support for both major parties increased with the Coalition up 1.5% to 35.5% and the ALP up 1% to 33.5%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 12.5%, One Nation was down 1% to 4%, Other Parties were unchanged at 4.5% and Independents were down 0.5% to 10%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

ALP’s fiscal reckoning

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 25-Mar-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal budget is in much better shape than when Labor took office in May 2022. He adds that tonight’s budget will help to "finish the fight against inflation" and ease the cost-of-living crisis. The budget papers are expected to show that gross debt will total $940bn in 2024-25, which equates to about 36 per cent of GDP; this compares with the forecast of 35.2 per cent in the 2024 budget. Chalmers has emphasised Labor’s economic credentials, noting that it has delivered two surpluses in its first term and reduced the former Coalition government’s debt by $177bn. However, the budget will be in deficit for 2024-25, and Chalmers has conceded that it is unlikely to return to surplus for at least a decade.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Border dodgers’ criminal rampage: Cost to Aussies is $100m

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Original article by Remy Varga
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 5-Mar-25

Data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that 291 former immigration detainees have now been released since the High Court’s landmark NZYQ ruling. The figures also show that 90 former detainees have been charged with various offences by state and territory authorities since their release; 17 have been given new custodial sentences and five have received suspended sentences. Meanwhile, the former detainees – all of whom have criminal records in Australia – have now cost taxpayers more than $100m since they were released into the community. This includes $73.7m on operational costs, $24.3m on administration costs and $18.6m worth of legal fees. The ex-detainees are also receiving government payments of up to $1,000 each fortnight.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA

Union vows to fight Dutton’s five-days-in-office edict at the tribunal

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Original article by Olivia Ireland, Josefine Ganko
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 5-Mar-25

The Community & Public Sector Union says it will pursue a Fair Work Commission challenge to any mandate for public servants to return to working in their office five days a week if the Coalition wins the upcoming federal election. The CPSU’s national secretary Melissa Donnelly has accused the Coalition of being ‘tone-deaf’ to the challenges that working families and working women face in their working life. Opposition leader Peter Dutton rejects suggestions that the policy discriminates against women with children, arguing that it will apply to all public servants; he adds that the Coalition would use common sense when considering any exceptions to the policy.

CORPORATES
COMMUNITY AND PUBLIC SECTOR UNION, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

US halts arms, PM gets willing

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 9 : 5-Mar-25

US President Donald Trump has suspended all military support for Ukraine, including weapons that were already in transit to the war-torn country. Senior Defense Department officials said the pause will remain in place until Trump is satisfied that Ukraine’s leaders have demonstrated a ‘good faith’ commitment to peace. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has indicated that the federal government would consider providing soldiers for a ‘coalition of the willing’ peacekeeping force in Ukraine if it were asked to do so. However, Peter Dean from the US Studies Centre contends that the Indo-Pacific region should be Australia’s top priority.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF DEFENSE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES. UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE

Cyclone Alfred looks to be final barrier to PM calling April 12 election

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Original article by Jacob Greber
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 4-Mar-25

A source within the federal government says there is a 50 per cent chance that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will announce the date of the election this weekend, with 12 April seen as the most likely option. However, some Labor insiders believe that Albanese will wait until the potential impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on south-east Queensland is known before going to the polls. The Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded the cyclone to a category two system, and it is forecast to make landfall somewhere between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast later this week. The next most likely date for the election would be 3 May, given that Albanese will have to take into account Easter and Anzac Day when deciding on a date to go to the polls.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition regains narrow lead after Reserve Bank boost proves short-lived: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Mar-25

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament, with the Coalition on 50.5% (up 1.5%) narrowly ahead of the ALP on 49.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. The Coalition, or the ALP, would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. This latest weekly poll has not completely reversed the ‘Reserve Bank boost’ but has definitely shown the ‘boost’ to Labor has been significantly softened. The Coalition stretched their primary vote lead, with L-NP support up 3.5% to 40% while ALP support dropped 3% to 28.5%; the Greens were unchanged at 13.5%, One Nation down 1% to 4%, Other Parties unchanged at 3.5% and Independents up 0.5% to 10.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

National nightmare of teals on a Green pitch

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Original article by Paul Garvey, Perry Williams, Colin Packham, Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Feb-25

Woodside Energy CEO Meg O’Neill says it would be bad for households, business and the environment if the Greens or the teals hold the balance of power after the federal election. Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods has expressed similar concerns, warning that a minority government could result in "exorbitant power" being given to a small collection of MPs who are focused solely on their own narrow agenda rather than the good of the nation. He contends that electors should vote for either Labor or the Coalition, as the consequences of giving the Greens or teals greater influence would include higher unemployment and severe energy shortages.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED – ASX WDS, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Public service’s dirt job for Chalmers

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Feb-25

The federal government is continuing to attract scrutiny over claims that it had asked the Treasury to undertake costings on the Coalition’s proposal to offer tax breaks of up to $20,000 for small businesses. Treasury is not permitted to provide the government of the day with costings on the opposition’s policies. However, a series of emails between senior Treasury officials and the office of Treasurer Jim Chalmers shows that the Treasury was aware that it was modelling Coalition policy. Chalmers has publicly stated that he had asked Treasury to cost the policy; shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has accused him of using the Treasury as his personal "dirt unit".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Cash splash to increase tax burden

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 25-Feb-25

Analysis shows that the federal government has made $123.6bn worth of discretionary spending decisions in the three budgets it has handed down since taking office in May 2022. The government has also announced some $20bn worth of election promises since the start of 2025, headlined by the $8.5bn expenditure on Medicare. Independent economist Chris Richardson says the cost of Labor’s spending decisions since taking office will ultimately be borne by taxpayers via ‘bracket creep’. He adds that it will also delay any prospect of further tax cuts by 5-6 years.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY