AUSTRALIA – POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

Warning on jobs rate if productivity stalls

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 15-May-24

The 2024 budget papers indicate that productivity has grown for two consecutive quarters, and that it is expected to continue to pick up if economic conditions improve. However, Treasury has warned that if productivity does not improve as expected, it could lead to a rise in unemployment. Meanwhile, the budget papers have forecast that annual wages growth will decline from 4 per cent to 3.25 per cent over the next two financial years before rising to 3.5 per cent in the subsequent years of the forward estimates, while lower forecast inflation will result in real wages growth of 0.5 per cent each year over the forward estimates.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Purge of consultants heralds public service jobs boom

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Original article by David Ross
The Australian – Page: 11 : 15-May-24

The number of federal public servants has increased from 173,142 to more than 197,000 since Labor took office in May 2022. The budget papers show that the number of public servants is forecast to rise by 12,042 over the next year, while this is on track to be 36,000 higher than in 2021-22. The growth in public service numbers is at least partly due to the government’s push to reduce the cost of using external consultants, with thousands of these roles to be converted into in-house positions.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Labor splashes billions on cost of living relief

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-May-24

The 2024 budget papers show that the federal government expects to post a surplus of $9.3bn for 2023-24. However, there will be a combined budget deficit of $122bn over the forward estimates period. Meanwhile, the budget features $7.8bn of new spending on cost-of-living relief, headlined by a $3.5bn energy rebate; this will provide every household with a $300 credit on their electricity bill, to be paid in four quarterly instalments. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the cost-of-living measures will reduce the inflation rate by 0.75 of a percentage point in 2024 and 0.5 per cent in 2025. The Treasury expects inflation to fall to 3.5 per cent by June and 2.75 per cent by mid-2025.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Miners hail $17.6b in tax credits – but BHP nickel still on death row

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 15-May-24

Australia’s critical minerals industry has welcomed the federal government’s decision to provide the sector with a 10 per cent production tax credit. However, the budget measure may not ensure the future of BHP’s nickel operations in Western Australia, given that the tax credit will not be availabe until 2027. The potential closure of BHP’s nickel mines, refinery and smelter would result in the loss of about 3,000 jobs; BHP has previously warned that tax credits may not be enough to save the Nickel West business, which is contending with a glut of low-cost nickel produced in Indonesia with Chinese backing.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, NICKEL WEST

Jewish hate speech surge alarms PM

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 2 : 14-May-24

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addressed a pre-budget meeting of Labor’s caucus on Monday. He praised the performance of Foreign Minister Penny Wong in responding to the Israel-Hamas war and reiterated his government’s support for a two-state solution. Albanese also acknowledged the growing issue of anti-Semitism in Australia; responding to a question from senator Deborah O’Neill, he said that hostility towards Jewish people is at the highest level that he has seen in his lifetime. The government is also continuing to attract scrutiny over its controversial decision to support a United Nations motion on Palestine.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Cost-of-living handouts that bust inflation a trick

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 14-May-24

The federal government has confirmed that the 2024 budget will feature measures to combat inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, including electricity bill rebates and rental assistance. However, former Reserve Bank of Australia board member Warwick McKibbin contends that using government subsidies to combat inflation is a "political trick" that will not address underlying price pressures in the economy. McKibbin has also questioned the Treasury’s forecast that inflation will return to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent by the end of 2024. He adds that the Treasury and the RBA have underestimated the inflationary impact of the revised stage-three personal income tax cuts that take effect on 1 July.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Surplus of $9.3b, then a sea of red ink

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 14-May-24

The federal government is set to announce a budget surplus of $9.3bn for 2023-24, having previously forecast a deficit of $1.1bn in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. It will be only the second successive budget surplus since the global financial crisis; however, this will be followed by large deficits over the forward estimates period, which the government has attributed to "unavoidable spending". Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says it will be "a Labor budget through and through", with cost-of-living relief that will reduce rather than increase inflation and a tax cut for every worker.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ALP maintains election winning lead over Coalition for a fourth straight week before Federal Budget is delivered: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the fourth week in a row with support on 52% (unchanged) ahead of the Coalition on 48% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis before Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers this week’s pre-election Federal Budget. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Although the overall two-party preferred result was unchanged, primary support for the ALP increased 2% to 32% this week but is still well behind the Coalition, unchanged on 37%. Looking at the minor parties, support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13.5% and support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5.5%. Support for Independents was down 1% to 7.5% and support for Other Parties was down 1% to 4.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,654 Australian electors from May 6-12, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Palestine chant may incite violence

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 8-May-24

Former ASIO director-general Dennis Richardson contends that ‘from the river to the sea’ is a "very violent statement" and its use by pro-Palestine demonstrators could prompt violence against communities in Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has expressed similar sentiments about the now widely-used chant, and he has stated that it has "no place on Australia’s streets". Richardson and Albanese have discussed the issue in a documentary hosted by former treasurer Josh Frydenberg that will be broadcast by Sky News later in May. Meanwhile, Frydenberg has called for action to remove pro-Palestine encampments at some of the nation’s major universities.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITY INTELLIGENCE ORGANISATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ALP maintains election winning lead over Coalition in early May for third straight week: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-24

The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the third week in a row with support unchanged on 52%, ahead of the Coalition on 48% (also unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Despite a clear election winning lead, primary support for the ALP dipped 1.5% to 30% this week. The news early last week that a grandmother in Perth had been bashed in a home invasion by a freed immigration detainee put further pressure on the government’s policy on immigration detention over the week. Support for the Coalition increased 0.5% to 37% while support for the Greens dropped 1% to 13%. Looking at the minor parties, support for One Nation was up 0.5% to 6%. Support for Independents was up 0.5% to 8.5% and support for Other Parties was up 1% to 5.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,666 Australian electors from April 29 to May 5. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY