AUSTRALIA – POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

ALP (53%) lead over the L-NP (47%) narrowed slightly before Sydney re-opened this week

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Oct-21

The latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows that support for the ALP has fallen to 53% (down 1% point since late September), cf. the L-NP on 47% (up 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis. The 1% points swing to the L-NP came after Prime Minister Scott Morrison met foreign leaders in Washington in late September as part of a series of security meetings. However, the swing to the L-NP in recent weeks has merely acted to reverse the similarly sized swing away from the L-NP in September. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Bob Hawke at the 1983 Federal Election (ALP 53.2% cf. L-NP 46.8%). Primary support for the L-NP increased by 1.5% points to 37.5% in mid-October and is now just ahead of the ALP, which is unchanged on 36%. Greens support has dropped 1% point to 11.5%. Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3%, while support for Independents/Others was unchanged at 12%. Interviewing for the latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of October 2/3 and 9/10, with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,794 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

US ‘won’t share nuclear subs’: expert

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Oct-21

Former US submariner and navy commander Bryan Clark believes that Australia is likely to buy Britain’s Astute-class nuclear-powered submarine. Clark doubts that the US will make its Virginia-class submarine available to Australia under the recently-announced three-nation AUKUS alliance. He adds that the Astute-class vessel is smaller and significantly less expensive, and is designed for a range of different missions. Clark adds that the US is also highly unlikely to lease refurbished nuclear submarines to Australia.

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Lockdowns no barrier to budget tax jump

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Original article by John Kehoe, Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 1-Oct-21

The federal government has advised that the Budget deficit blew out to a record $134.2bn in 2020-21, although this is well below the government’s worst-case scenario forecasts. Meanwhile, data from the Department of Finance shows that the underlying cash deficit for the first two months of 2021-21 was $22bn, compared with a forecast of $28.1bn in the Budget in May. Government revenue for the period was $12.1bn higher than had been forecast in the Budget, with higher-than-expected revenue from personal and company taxes.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

National cabinet secrecy: senator to cross the floor

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 29-Sep-21

The federal government will need the support of four crossbench senators for its legislation to overturn a Federal Court ruling on the status of the national cabinet. Justice Richard White recently ruled in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal that the national cabinet is not covered by secrecy laws. Liberal senator Gerard Rennick has advised that he will vote against the legislation, stating that he has no time for secrecy and that Australians have a right to know what is discussed in meetings of the national cabinet.

CORPORATES
FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. ADMINISTRATIVE APPEALS TRIBUNAL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers’ Shorten-era tax threat

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Sep-21

Labor abandoned a number of unpopular policy measures that contributed to its 2019 election defeat, including changes to the franking credit and negative gearing regimes. However, shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers is said to have pushed for Labor to retain a policy which targeted the use of family trusts to minimise taxation. He is believed to have raised the issue at a recent meeting of Labor’s strategic policy review committee. Sources have indicated that discussions regarding the policy on discretionary trusts are at a preliminary stage and the issue has not been debated by the shadow cabinet.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

PM to end money for lockdowns

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Sep-21

The federal government’s temporary COVID-19 Disaster Payment will be phased out when the states and territories have achieved the vaccination rates that were agreed upon in the national plan to reopen the economy. The income support payments will be completely withdrawn two weeks after 80 per cent of the eligible population of a given jurisdiction has been fully vaccinated. States and territories that opt to set higher vaccination targets than the national plan will be required to implement their own income support programs. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the coronavirus cannot be eliminated, so Australia must learn to live with it.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Frydenberg flags home loan curbs

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 28-Sep-21

Growing concern about the high debt-to-income ratios of home buyers may prompt the federal government to push for regulatory intervention. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg discussed the issue at the Council of Financial Regulators’ recent quarterly meeting, although the CFR is not expected to announce any macro-prudential measures in its quarterly statement on 29 September. Frydenberg says Australia’s macro-prudential settings must be continually assessed, and they should be adjusted if this is deemed to be necessary.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS

Tax cuts to soon disappear as budget relies on workers to recover from COVID-19

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 22-Sep-21

Analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Office shows that ‘bracket creep’ will erode the benefits of the federal government’s personal income tax cuts over the next decade. The PBO has forecast that people with annual income of $20,000 to $50,000 face an increase of 6.6 per cent in their average tax rate by 2031-32, while those earning between $50,000 and $75,000 will pay an extra three per cent. People earning $96,000 to $160,000 a year are the only ones who will be paying a lower average tax rate. The final stage of the income tax cuts package will take effect in mid-2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

US has ‘no closer ally than Australia’, says Biden after AUKUS pact

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Original article by Patrick Wintour
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 22-Sep-21

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and US President Joe Biden have held their first official in-person meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Biden praised Australia ahead of the meeting, stating that the US has no "closer or more reliable ally". Biden had earlier addressed the general assembly, but his speech did not directly mention the new AUKUS security alliance between Australia, the UK and the US. Meanwhile, former prime minister Kevin Rudd has criticised Morrison’s handling of the cancelled submarines contract, particularly his failure to inform the French government that the deal would be dropped in favour of nuclear-powered subs under the new alliance.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED NATIONS. GENERAL ASSEMBLY

57% of Australians approve of the Federal Government’s agreement to purchase nuclear submarines from the USA

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Sep-21

A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey shows that 57% of Australians approve of the Federal Government’s agreement to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US, while 43% disapprove. Some 89% of L-NP supporters approve of the agreement, compared to 47% of ALP supporters and only 14% of Greens supporters. Meanwhile, 68% of men and 46% of women approve of the agreement. There is also a clear ‘age gap’ on views of the agreement, with strong approval among people aged 50-64 (60%) and those aged 65+ (72%); in contrast, 53% of people aged 18-24 and 51% of those aged 25-34 disapprove of the agreement. This Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,714 Australians aged 18+ on 16 September.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS