Super, massive trade surplus holds up economy

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 7-Aug-19

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says Australia could be set to post its first current account surplus since 1975, following the release of the latest balance of trade data. The nation’s trade surplus rose to a record $8.04bn in June and totalled $19.7bn for the June quarter, which is $5.2bn higher than the March quarter. The result was driven by strong growth in iron ore export volumes and the price of the steel input during the period. Australia’s overall export volumes increased by 1.4 per cent in June, while there was a 3.6 per cent decline in imports.

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WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Trade surplus hasn’t hushed rate cut talk

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 4-Jul-19

Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record $5.7bn in May, eclipsing the previous high of $4.8bn in April. The big trade surplus was driven by strong growth in iron ore export volumes and the price of the steel input. Kaixin Owyong of National Australia Bank says the record trade surplus could put the nation on track to achieve a current account surplus for the first time in decades. Meanwhile, some economists have flagged the potential for another official interest rate cut in August.

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NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

GDP forecasts upgraded on record trade surplus

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 5-Jun-19

Australia has posted a current account deficit of just $2.9bn for the March quarter, compared with $7.2bn in the previous three months. The trade surplus has risen to a record $13.6bn, with the value of goods and services exports rising by $4.24bn and imports falling by $514m. The trade surplus was bolstered by higher iron ore prices, although iron ore export volumes fell during the quarter. National Australia Bank and BIS Oxford Economics have upgraded their GDP growth forecasts for the March quarter.

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NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Record trade surplus of $4.8b thanks to iron ore

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Apr-19

New figures show that Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record $4.8bn in February, well ahead of analysts’ expectations of just $3.7bn. The result was boosted by an 11 per cent increase in the value of iron ore exports. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank expects commodity prices to rise further, and that the forecasts outlined in the April 2019 Budget will prove to be too conservative. Meanwhile, services exports rose by two per cent in February, while there was a one per cent decline in rural exports.

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COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Trade surplus eases in November

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 9-Jan-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s exports rose by one per cent to $38.4bn in November, while imports increased by two per cent to $36.5bn. Australia recorded an 11th consecutive monthly trade surplus in November, although it fell from a downwardly revised $2bn in October to $1.9bn. The consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg had been for a trade surplus of $2.2bn in November.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BLOOMBERG LP, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Trade balance back in the black

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 9-Mar-18

Australia posted a trade surplus of $A1.1bn in January 2018, following a deficit in December. The trade figures were bolstered by growing demand in Asia for the nation’s resources commodities, and Asia’s share of Australia’s overall exports has risen from 61 per cent to 75 per cent over the last decade. In contrast, the US now accounts for less than four per cent of Australia’s exports. Meanwhile, China recorded a trade surplus of $US34bn in January, while the US posted a deficit of $US57bn.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Trade surplus heads back to $1b as iron ore shipments to China surge

Original article by Stephen Letts
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 6-Oct-17

Australia has recorded a trade surplus of $A989m for August in seasonally-adjusted terms. This compares with a surplus of $A808m for July. The surplus was bolstered by strong growth in both the price of iron ore and the steel input’s export volumes, although shipments of coal and LNG were lower than in July. The total value of Australia’s exports rose by one per cent to $A32.2bn, while the value of imports was steady at $A31.2bn.

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JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

‘Back to normal’ as trade deficit widens

Original article by Vera Sprothen, James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 16 : 7-Jan-15

New figures show that Australia posted its eighth successive monthly trade deficit in November 2014. The trade deficit of $A925m compares with a revised deficit just $A877m for October. Deutsche Bank economist Phil O’Donaghoe says the trade surpluses posted in 2010 and 2011 were an anomaly and the nation has returned to its "normal" trend for the balance of trade to be in deficit

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DEUTSCHE BANK AG, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BARCLAYS BANK PLC

Interest rates in state of suspension

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 6-Aug-14

Riki Polygenis of the ANZ Bank says the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to adopt a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy given the state of the economy. The central bank left the cash rate unchanged on 5 August 2014, and its monetary policy statement largely reiterated the views that were expressed in the previous month. Meanwhile, new data shows that the nation’s trade deficit blew out to $A4.8bn in the June quarter

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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED