BANKS AND BANKING

RBA signals rates pause amid warning on woeful productivity

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Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 22-Mar-23

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting on 7 March show that it may be open to leaving the cash rate on hold in April. The minutes note that RBA board members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the April meeting, as this would provide it with additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy. The board also noted that a rate pause will be appropriate at some point in order to more fully assess the effect of the 10 consecutive interest rate increases to date. The minutes show that the RBA board is also concerned about Australia’s low level of productivity and its impact on inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA ‘will do what’s necessary’, but end of rate rises in sight

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Mar-23

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe adopted a more dovish tone on Tuesday following the latest 25 basis point increase in the cash rate, to 3.6 per cent. He said the RBA board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to the target range of 2-3 per cent. He added that the board is of the view that the current period of high inflation will be temporary. Lowe had stated after the RBA’s February board meeting that "further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead". Josh Williamson of Citigroup says this change in tone suggests that the end of rate rises is in sight, and there could potentially be just one more in the current monetary policy tightening cycle. The cash rate is now at its highest level since May 2012.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Inflation: Act now or hurt like 1990s

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Ewin Hannan, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Mar-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to announce a 10th consecutive increase in the cash rate on Tuesday, and some economists believe that there is potential for up to four rate rises by June. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says households face a tough time in coming months, and they must expect more rate rises. Evans warns that it is "now or never" if the RBA is to get inflation under control, and he contends that failing to do so would risk the prospect of interest rates approaching the levels that were seen in the 1990s. ACTU secretary Sally McManus has called for a pause in interest rate rises, arguing that Australians are "seriously hurting" and the rate rises to date have achieved the RBA’s goal of running down households’ savings.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ACTU

RBA’s rate rises to run for months

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Feb-23

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that further official interest rate increases are likely in order to bring inflation under control. The RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.35 per cent on Tuesday, in a move that was widely expected. Many economists now forecast that the cash rate will peak at 3.85 per cent in April, compared with previous expectations of 3.6 per cent. Lowe has emphasised that the RBA will do "what is necessary" to return inflation to its target range of 2-3 per cent. Lowe has conceded that the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation is higher than expected at 6.9 per cent. Meanwhile, new data shows that Australia’s trade surplus fell to $12.2bn in December.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australia’s softening inflation unlikely to spell an end to interest rate hikes

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Original article by Peter Hannam
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release inflation data for the December quarter on Wednesday. Many economists expect the annual headline inflation rate to have peaked at 7.5 per cent in the quarter, compared with 7.3 per cent in the previous three months. The trimmed mean is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of inflation; the general consensus of economists is that this will be 6.4 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 6.1 per cent in the previous quarter. However, the ANZ Bank expects a headline inflation rate of 7.7 per cent and a trimmed mean of 6.7 per cent. The bank contends that the RBA is likely to increase the cash rate three times by May, given that both measures will still be well above its target range of 2-3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA’s rapid rate rises questioned by parliament

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 23-Dec-22

The House of Representatives’ economics committee has been reviewing the Reserve Bank of Australia, with its report being issued on 22 December. The committee has noted that the RBA is not solely responsible for bringing down inflation, with the committee observing that community and business expectations about inflation also have an influence; the committee stated the RBA needs to take these expectation into account both when setting interest rates and when signalling its monetary policy intentions. The committee stated it expects the RBA to analyse where demand inflation is strongest and what impact interest rate rises were having.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA’s ultra-low rate loans barely boosted lending

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 14-Dec-22

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s approach to monetary policy during the COVID-19 pandemic is continuing to attract scrutiny. RBA analysts have undertaken a review of the central bank’s Term Funding Facility, which offered ultra-low interest loans to banks with the aim of providing support to businesses during the pandemic-induced economic downturn. The analysts concluded that there was little evidence that the TFF had increased overall lending, particularly to the small and medium enterprise sector.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Governor’s mea culpa for flawed interest rates guidance

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 29-Nov-22

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has used an appearance before a Senate estimates hearing to apologise for the RBA’s flawed guidance during late 2020 and most of 2021 that interest rates would not go up until 2024. However, he stated that its advice at the time needed to be taken into context, noting it was the height of the pandemic, and the dire situation that the country was in suggested to the RBA that inflation was unlikely to pick up quickly. Lowe also said he was "very glad" that workers were getting higher pay, while he did not think that labour costs would increase sufficiently enough to cause a 1970s style wage-price spiral.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NZ Reserve Bank nails our RBA’s failure

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Herald Sun – Page: 49 : 24-Nov-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has stated that wage outcomes must be consistent with the return of inflation to the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Increasing wages in line with the inflation rate would inevitably result in large-scale job losses and further boost inflation. Allowing inflation to remain well above the target range for too long would also heighten the risk of a wage-price spiral. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recognises these risks; its cash rate was increased by 75 basis points on Wednesday, and it seriously considered a one per cent increase. In contrast, the RBA increased the cash rate by just 25 basis points in November, despite the inflation rate in both countries being nearly identical. NZ’s cash rate is now 4.25 per cent, but Australia’s cash rate will still be just 3.1 per cent if – as expected – the RBA announces a 25 basis point increase in December.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

Economists tip supersized Cup day rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 28-Oct-22

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in November, in response to the latest inflation data. Westpac now anticipates that official interest rates will peak at 3.85 per cent, a view shared by the Commonwealth Bank. National Australia Bank and ANZ in turn expect interest rates to peak at 3.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point increase in November.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ