BANKS AND BANKING

RBA opens door to 2022 rate rise

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that official interest rates could potentially rise before the end of 2022 if the economy continues to perform well. However, he has downplayed suggestions that the cash rate may be increased four times in 2022, arguing that Australia’s inflation rate is still well below that of countries such as the US and the UK. Lowe also said that the unemployment rate could soon fall below four per cent. The Commonwealth Bank still expects the cash rate to be increased in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Lowe keeps nation guessing on rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 2-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that official interest rates will rise in 2022. Lowe stated that although inflation has increased, it is not yet sustainably within the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. This has been identified as a prerequisite for increasing the cash rate, which was left at a record low of 0.1 per cent on Tuesday. The RBA will also end its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, Lowe has forecast that core inflation will peak at 3.25 per cent, compared with 2.6 per cent at present, while he expects the unemployment rate to fall below four per cent later in 2022.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Economists give Lowe a pass for 2021, except for one thing

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 7-Jan-22

A survey of 23 economists regarding their views on the performance of the Reserve Bank in 2021 has seen RBA governor Philip Lowe score 72.5 per cent for his leadership. The RBA scored 76 per cent on management of monetary policy, while its communication of policy and intentions scored 66 per cent. The only area in which the economists felt that the RBA failed was in regards to its termination of its policy to suppress the yield on three-year Treasury bonds, which received only 41 per cent support.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

New Covid variant could hit RBA’s plans to taper

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 22-Dec-21

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting for December show that the central bank remains upbeat about the outlook for the economy. The RBA does not expect the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 to "derail" the nation’s economic recovery. However, the variant may affect the RBA’s timetable for winding back quantitative easing.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Economists cast doubt on central bank’s view

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 20-Oct-21

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monthly board meeting show that it still expects the cash rate to remain on hold until 2024, when inflation is forecast to be sustainably within its target range of 2-3 per cent. However, the consensus of economists is that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy in mid-2023. Judo Bank’s chief economist Warren Hogan says the first rate rise could potentially be in November 2022, while Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets expects a rate rise in the December 2023 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JUDO BANK PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

RBA: Economy to bounce back

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 8-Sep-21

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned that GDP is likely to decline "materially" in the September quarter due to COVID-19 lockdowns. However, he believes that the economy will rebound as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased, and growth in the December quarter will allow Australia to avoid a technical recession. The central bank left official interest rates on hold at 0.1 per cent at its September board meeting; it has also advised that its bond-buying program will be maintained at the current level until at least February 2022.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA may rethink tapering as lockdowns bite

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Jul-21

The Reserve Bank of Australia recently signalled that it will begin scaling back its bond-buying program in September, amid the nation’s stronger-than-expected economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, economists at a number of banks anticipate that the potential economic impact of the latest wave of lockdowns will prompt the central bank to delay plans to slash its bond-buying program by $1bn a week. Gareth Aird from the Commonwealth Bank says the RBA could potentially start to reduce its bond purchases in November.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMS GROUP LIMITED – ASX CCG

Reserve Bank cools expectations of rise in interest rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 9-Jul-21

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that it could begin tightening monetary policy in 2022. Lowe has told the Economics Society of Queensland that inflation must be "sustainably" within the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent before it will consider a rise in the official interest rate; he added that wage growth of at least three per cent is likely to be needed for inflation to reach the central bank’s target range, while wages growth is "materially" less than three per cent at present. George Tharenou of UBS expects the RBA to abandon its bond yield target in the second half of 2022, which would enable it to increase the cash rate in 2023.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Investors bring forward rate rise expectations

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 7-Jul-21

Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin tightening monetary policy in early 2023, and he has flagged a cash rate of 0.75 per cent by the end of that year. RBA governor Philip Lowe has previously reiterated that interest rates are likely to remain at 0.1 per cent until at least 2024, but he indicated in a statement on 6 July that this is now merely its "central scenario" and the conditions that could justify a rate rise could be met earlier than this. Interest rate futures pricing also suggests that the cash rate could begin rising earlier than expected.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Data risk alert in NZ reserve bank file hack

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cliona O’Dowd, David Swan
The Australian – Page: 14 : 12-Jan-21

Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Adrian Orr says the central bank is treating a data breach as a top priority, and the National Cyber Security Centre has been informed of the incident. Orr says the hackers had targeted Accellion rather than the RBNZ’s own computer systems; Accellion provides a third-party file-sharing service which the central bank uses to share and store sensitive information. Spotless is among the Australian companies that were targeted by hackers in 2020, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison warned in June of a rise in cyber attacks in both the public and private sectors.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, ACCELLION INCORPORATED, SPOTLESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET