BANKS AND BANKING

$A catches coronavirus, plummets to 11-year low

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Original article by Tom Richardson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 3-Mar-20

The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.654 in local trading on 2 March, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting. Financial markets have priced in a near-97 per cent chance that the central bank will reduce the cash rate on 3 March, and a 67 per cent chance of a second rate cut in May. Morgan Stanley expects the cash rate to remain on hold until April, giving the RBA time to assess GDP data to be released on 4 March. The Commonwealth Bank says the economic impact of the coronavirus could prompt the Australian dollar to fall further in coming days.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Rate cut tipped amid virus crisis

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 2-Mar-20

Financial markets have now priced in an 87 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate on 3 March. This compares with an 18 per cent chance on 28 February. The case for further easing of monetary has been strengthened by the local sharemarket’s 9.8 per fall in the last week of February, amid global bearish sentiment as the coronavirus outbreak continued to spread beyond China. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the RBA would probably have preferred to wait a bit longer to act. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has also flagged the possibility of interest rate cuts to stimulate the US economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Reserve Bank wary of risks from low rates

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 25 : 19-Feb-20

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for February show that the central bank considered the potential downside risks of further easing monetary policy when it left interest rates on hold. The board also noted that the coronavirus outbreak presents a risk to the economic outlook for both China and Australia in the near-term. Most economists expect an official interest rate cut in April or May, and the futures market has fully priced in a rate cut by October.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rates to stay low ‘for decades’: RBA

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 19 & 29 : 14-Feb-20

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has conceded that the coronavirus outbreak is likely to have a near-term impact on the economy, although he does not expect the outlook for 2020 to be significantly affected. He adds that the Australian economy will benefit from stimulus measures in China when the virus is brought under control. Lowe has also warned that climate change has ‘profound’ economic implications for Australia, while he says official interest rates may remain low for a long time.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA optimism boosts dollar

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 6-Feb-20

The odds of an official interest rate cut in the near-term have lengthened, with financial market pricing now implying that rates will be on hold until September. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rebounded from its recent four-month low in response to a speech by Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe on 5 February. He said the bushfires will have little impact on Australia’s overall economic growth in 2020, due to expenditure on recovery programs. However, he conceded that GDP growth will fall in the short-term. Lowe added that it is too soon to determine the likely economic impact of the coronavirus.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA keeps faith in the economy

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 5-Feb-20

Financial markets still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate by June, after it left rates unchanged at 0.75 per cent on 4 February. The general consensus of economists is that the cash rate will remain on hold in March. Meanwhile, economists had expected the RBA to downgrade its economic growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 in the wake of the bushfires and the coronavirus crisis, but these have been left at 2.75 per cent and 3 per cent respectively. The central bank also expects the unemployment rate to remain at around 5.1 per cent in 2020, before easing to less than five per cent in 2021.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Virus fears, rate uncertainty push $A to worst January since 2015

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 3-Feb-20

The Australian dollar has shed 4.7 per cent so far in 2020, and factors such as the coronavirus and the prospect of further interest rate cuts could see the currency test a new post-global financial crisis low. The Reserve Bank of Australia is now widely tipped to reduce the cash rate in April, although Prashant Newnaha of TD Securities says a rate cut in March is still possible. The RBA is expected to downgrade its economic growth forecasts on 7 February, and National Australia Bank economist Kaixin Owyong says this means that further rate cuts will be necessary.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, TD SECURITIES, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Consensus shifts to April cut after NAB relents

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 31-Jan-20

The futures market is currently pricing in a 10.4 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate on 4 February, compared with a 53 per cent chance in mid-January. National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster previously expected a rate cut in February, and while he still believes that the RBA should so, he says the next rate cut is now likely to be in April. The other major banks also expect an official interest rate cut in April.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cut odds sink with jobless fall

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 24-Jan-20

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent in December, its lowest level since April. The economy shed 300 full-time jobs, although this was offset by the creation of 29,200 part-time jobs. The underemployment rate was steady at 8.3 per cent; the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ chief economist Bruce Hockman notes that underemployment has remained unchanged over the last year. Financial markets have responded to the latest jobs data by pricing in a 25 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cuts not working says CBA economist

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 22-Jan-20

National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster says the Reserve Bank needs to reduce official interest rates twice in 2020 in order to stimulate the economy. He expects the first rate cut to be in February. The Commonwealth Bank’s chief economist Michael Blythe also anticipates a rate cut in February, although he opposes such a move. Blythe contends that the three rate cuts in 2019 have not been effective, and they have resulted in outcomes such as a decline in consumer confidence.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA