BANKS AND BANKING

Lowe leaves door open for more

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Original article by Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 3-Jul-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled the potential for further easing of monetary policy after the cash rate was reduced to a record low of one per cent on 2 July. Lowe says there is still a lot of spare capacity in the economy, and it should be possible to reduce both the unemployment and underemployment rate. It was the first time the RBA had cut official interest rates in two consecutive months since 2012, and Paul Bloxham of HSBC says this suggests that the central bank is worried about economic growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

RBA to cut twice more, say economists

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 18 : 1-Jul-19

A quarterly survey of economists shows that there is a widely held expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates two more times during 2019. This would reduce the cash rate to 0.75 per cent, but David Plank of the ANZ Banks says further rate cuts could be necessary, depending on the outlook for the global economy and the Australian dollar. David Bassanese of BetaShares says the RBA would be unlikely to take the cash rate below 0.5 per cent, and it would probably opt for quantitative easing instead. Many economists expect a rate cut on 2 July.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

History suggests rate cut in July unlikely

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 28-Jun-19

Financial markets have priced in a 72 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in July. However, analysis shows that the central bank has reduced the cash rate in two consecutive months on just 12 of the 46 occasions on which it has eased monetary policy since 1990. The RBA has not reduced the cash rate in two consecutive months since 1992, when there were concerns about the outlook for the global economy. Chris Read of Morgan Stanley says an easing pause in July would enable the RBA to pursue a gradual cutting cycle.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Risks build as central banks push on a string

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Jun-19

There is a growing view that further monetary policy easing will do little to stimulate economic growth. Expectations of further interest rate cuts have seen Australia’s All Ordinaries Index gain 18 per cent so far in 2019. Matthew Brooks of Macquarie Group notes that the Australian sharemarket rose by an average of 12 per cent after the first interest rate cut in eight of the 11 easing cycles since 1971, while the S&P 500 was up at least 10 per cent a year. The other three easing cycles coincided with recessions.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

RBNZ orders independent reviews of ANZ

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 21 : 25-Jun-19

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has commissioned reviews of the ANZ Bank’s compliance with capital requirements and governance standards. The independent reviews follow the recent departure of the bank’s New Zealand CEO David Hisco after a review of his personal expense claims. Meanwhile, Mark Nathan of Regal Funds Management expects the central bank to make changes to its proposed overhaul of Australian banks’ capital requirements in response to feedback from the industry.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ANZ NATIONAL BANK LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, REGAL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NEW ZEALAND. FINANCIAL MARKETS AUTHORITY

RBA signals more rate cuts needed

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 19-Jun-19

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting show that it expects to further reduce official interest rates in coming months. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank anticipates rate cuts in August and November, when the central bank updates the economic forecasts in its quarterly monetary policy statements. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan also expects a rate cut in August, although he says July remains a possibility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MSCI WORLD INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Banks not passing on cut nothing new: Treasury

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 7-Jun-19

Westpac and ANZ have been criticised for withholding part of the Reserve Bank’s official interest rate cut. The central bank has cut the cash rate a total of 19 times since 2008, and analysis by the Treasury shows that there have been 13 occasions when at least one of the four major banks failed to pass on the full rate. The banks have also reduced their rates by a higher margin than the official interest rate cut on several occasions since the global financial crisis.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Ex-RBA deputy queries rate cut

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 6-Jun-19

Stephen Grenville was the Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor when it introduced inflation targeting in 1996. However, he has questioned whether the inflation target of 2-3 per cent is still necessary, as well as the central bank’s decision to reduce the cash rate to a record low of 1.25 per cent. Grenville argues that there needs to be more focus on the role of fiscal policy in stimulating the economy. Inflation has been below the RBA’s target range for several years, but governor Philip Lowe says there is no need for any changes to the monetary policy framework at present.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LOWY INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY, OUTLOOK ECONOMICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Banks defy the Treasurer, RBA

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Jun-19

Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has criticised the ANZ Bank for reducing its variable mortgage interest rates by just 0.18, after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate by 0.25 per cent to a record low of 1.25 per cent. Westpac has cut its variable rates by 0.20 per cent, while National Australia Bank and the Commonwealth Bank have passed the central bank’s full rate cut on to customers. RBA governor Philip Lowe also says the major banks should reduce their mortgage rates by the full amount, given that their wholesale funding costs have fallen significantly.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Banks told: hand over RBA cut

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Jun-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to reduce official interest rates from 1.50 per cent to 1.25 per cent on 4 June. A cut in rates would mean an end to the longest period of unchanged interest rates in the history of the RBA. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who has met with the banks in recent days to discuss issues such as interest rates and the federal government’s proposed securitisation fund, has called on them to pass on any rates cut in fall. However, former RBA board member Warwick McKibbin has urged it not to cut rates, while Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management says any cut in rates would result in increased demand for dividend-paying shares.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, PLATO INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED