BANKS AND BANKING

Ten-year bond yields plumb new depths

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 29-Mar-19

The global bond rally has seen the yield on Australian 10-year bonds fall to a record low of 1.73 per cent, to the same level as New Zealand’s 10-year bonds. However, NZ currently has a higher official interest rate at 1.75 per cent, although futures traders have priced in two rate cuts in Australia by August 2020, which would reduce the cash rate to one per cent. Annette Beacher of TD Securities has not ruled out a further fall in bond yields.

CORPORATES
TD SECURITIES, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

US economy facing headwinds: Fed

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Original article by Eric Johnston
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 26-Mar-19

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Charles Evans forecasts that US economic growth in 2019 will be within the range of 1.75 per cent to two per cent. Meanwhile, financial markets have priced in a 60 per cent chance that the US Federal Reserve will reduce official interest rates, but Evans expects rates to rise, although not until the second half of 2020. Evans has also downplayed the risk to the US economy and financial markets if Britain’s exit from the European Union is "disorderly".

CORPORATES
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE AG

Jobless fall gives RBA breathing room

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 22-Mar-19

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from five per cent to 4.9 per cent in February, with a net gain of 4,600 jobs for the month. The economy shed 7,300 full-time jobs in February, although this was offset by the creation of 11,900 part-time positions. The participation rate and the underutilisation rate both eased slightly, to 65.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent respectively. Economists say the unemployment rate’s fall to an eight-year low will reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK

Patient Fed backs off rate hikes

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 12 : 22-Mar-19

The Federal Reserve is now widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged until 2020, after it adopted a more dovish stance at its latest monetary policy meeting. The central bank has dampened expectations of two interest rate increases in 2019, with chairman Jerome Powell indicating that the cash rate may be left on hold for some time. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s stance has heightened speculation regarding the timing of any rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX

Hold on rates due to strong jobs data

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 20-Mar-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank expects the labour market to remain strong, negating the need for any change to the cash rate in the near-term. The Reserve Bank also maintained its guidance for GDP growth of about three per cent in 2019, although the board meeting was held the day before the release of data showing GDP growth of just 0.2 per cent for the December 2018 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Cash rate could fall below 1pc, UBS says

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 19-Mar-19

George Tharenou of UBS says the Reserve Bank of Australia should immediately reduce the cash rate by 50 basis points to one per cent, given the state of the economy and the housing market. Tharenou adds that the central bank should also signal that it is prepared to cut official interest rates even further in order to avoid a market shock later on. He has also not ruled out measures such as quantitative easing. Tharenou expects rate cuts in July and August, although he says weak labour market data could force its hand earlier.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

ANZ ditches forecast for RBA rate increases

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 14-Mar-19

The ANZ Bank has scaled back its expectations for official interest rate rises in the near-term, forecasting that the cash rate will remain at 1.5 per cent until 2021. ANZ had previously expected two increases in the cash rate during 2020. ANZ’s David Plank says economic indicators other than GDP growth need to be taken into account when forecasting monetary policy, including labour market data. He adds that the Reserve Bank could act quickly to reduce the cash rate if signs of weakness in the labour market emerge.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK HEALTH SOCIETY LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Dollar dives on expected cut to RBA cash rate

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 7-Mar-19

The Australian dollar fell to a two-month low in local trading on 6 March, in response to the latest GDP data, while the money market has now fully priced in an official interest cut by October. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has told a business summit that the central bank still has the flexibility to raise or lower the cash rate as required. He also said the downturn in house prices is unlikely to affect economic growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

RBNZ could end big four’s NZ super profits

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 1-Mar-19

New Zealand has traditionally been a cash cow for Australia’s major banks, but experts warn that profit growth could be dampened by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s proposal to increase their capital requirements. Westpac has warned that any move to impose higher capital buffers could push up interest rates on loans and result in a downturn in deposit rates. The RBNZ has downplayed concerns that it proposal may prompt Australian banks to exit the NZ market.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Big four may mull NZ exit due to capital call

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 28-Feb-19

Brian Johnson of CLSA and Jonathan Mott of UBS have warned that Australia’s four major banks could seek to divest their New Zealand subsidiaries if the nation’s central bank presses ahead with plans to increase their capital requirements. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has downplayed such suggestions, arguing that the nation’s banks are among the most profitable in the world. Mott does not expect the RBNZ to back down on its proposal.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD