BANKS AND BANKING

Next rates move will be up: RBA’s Harper

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 24 : 30-Jan-19

Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper has downplayed suggestions that the central bank could further reduce the cash rate. He says the strength of the domestic economy means that interest rates will rise, but stresses that this is his personal view. Meanwhile, Harper adds that there are no indications as yet that the downturn in residential property prices has prompted consumers to reduce their spending. Financial markets have priced in a better-than-even chance that the RBA will reduce the cash rate during 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MELBOURNE BUSINESS SCHOOL, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

RBA will ignore gloom and stay a growth hawk

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 23 : 25-Jan-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is tipped to scale back its economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, after GDP growth was just 2.8 per cent year-on-year in the December 2018 quarter. The RBA had previously forecast growth of 3.5 per cent for 2018. However, the central bank is expected to maintain its hawkish stance, given that the unemployment rate eased in December. The strong labour market also means an increase in the cash rate is more likely than a cut.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Fed will take a break from rate hikes: Yellen

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 8-Jan-19

The Federal Reserve raised US interest four times in 2018, and former chair Janet Yellen says another one or two rate rises may be necessary to prevent the economy from overheating. However, Yellen has told a conference in China that she does not expect the central bank to tighten monetary policy again immediately. Yellen’s successor Jerome Powell has signalled that the Federal Reserve will be flexible in its approach to monetary policy in 2019.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, UBS AG, AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Economists push rate rise to 2020

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 16 : 2-Jan-19

The latest quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that the Reserve Bank will leave official interest rates on hold until mid-2020. Previous expectations were for a rate rise in the second half of 2019. However, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital is one of three economists who expect the central bank to reduce the cash rate in 2019. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is now widely tipped to increase interest rates twice in 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, QIC LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Fed rate hike roils global markets

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 15 & 21 : 21-Dec-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed 9.2 per cent so far in 2018, and 11 per cent during the current quarter. The local market’s 1.3 per cent fall on 20 December was accompanied by large falls across Asia, while the Australian dollar reached a low of $US.7086 and the yield on 10-year Australian bonds fell to 2.3 per cent. Financial markets believe that the US Federal Reserve made a policy mistake in signalling further monetary policy tightening over the next few years and it may have to reduce interest rates within two years.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, PEPPERSTONE FINANCIAL PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, BLOOMBERG LP, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, WAM CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX WAM, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, ECP ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, HYPERION ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

RBA to cut its 3.25pc growth forecast, economists say

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 20-Dec-18

Janu Chan of St George Bank is among the economists who expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to scale back its economic growth forecast of 3.25 per cent for 2018-19 at its first board meeting in 2019. This follows lower-than-expected GDP growth for the September quarter. The central bank’s monetary policy meeting in February will take into account the latest inflation and employment data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Fed, markets split on rate outlook – again

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 20-Dec-18

Financial markets have diverged from the Federal Reserve regarding the outlook for US interest rates in 2019, ahead of the central bank’s December board meeting. The general consensus of bond investors is that the Fed will not increase interest rates as rapidly as it has flagged in 2019. Meanwhile, analysts say factors such as the US-China trade war and the downturn in the crude oil price are likely to weigh on the Fed’s monetary policy decision for December.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, GRANT SAMUEL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, FEDERATION ASSET MANAGEMENT, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

New housing loans drop 7.4pc in quarter

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 19 : 13-Dec-18

A new report from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that $89.2bn worth of new mortgage loans were written in the September quarter, which is 7.4 per cent lower than previously. However, authorised deposit-taking institutions have reported a 5.4 per cent increase in the total value of housing loans in the year to September. Chris Bedingfield of Quay Global Investors says the annual rate of house construction is now too high, given that banks are tightening their lending criteria. He adds that the Reserve Bank is now more likely to reduce rather than raise the cash rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, QUAY GLOBAL INVESTORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Expect the RBA to hold fire on rates

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 27 : 13-Dec-18

The Reserve Bank is still more likely to tighten rather than ease monetary policy, despite recent comments by governor Philip Lowe. He was most likely just outlining how the central bank could be expected to respond – including the potential for quantitative easing – in the event of an economic downturn. Although the Reserve Bank is still concerned about issues such as an emerging credit crunch, the odds still favour a rate rise, although this is unlikely to be for some time.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA set to freeze rates trigger

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 10-Dec-18

Factors such as Australia’s sluggish GDP growth in the September quarter and the outlook for the housing market have prompted some economists and market analysts to forecast that official interest rates will remain on hold until 2020. They include Paul Bloxham of HSBC and Daniel Blake and Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley. However, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the cash rate to be cut rather than increased, most likely in the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT