BANKS AND BANKING

Fed hikes put squeeze on banks

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 28 : 15-Jun-18

The US Federal Reserve has signalled that two more interest rate increases are likely in 2018, following its second rate rise for the year. The new target range for the federal funds rate is between 1.75% and 2%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its cash rate at 1.5% for almost two years. The divergence in monetary policy has coincided with rising wholesale borrowing costs for Australia’s major banks, as well as a recent spike in the bank bill swap rate. Shane Oliver of AMP says local banks could potentially respond by increasing their mortgage rates on investment and interest-only loans.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, FINANCIAL STABILITY BOARD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SOCIETE GENERALE SA, BNP PARIBAS SA, GRUPO SANTANDER

House prices ‘won’t sway the RBA’

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 29-May-18

Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper says factors such as the low growth in wages means the central bank is unlikely to increase official interest rates in the near-term. He adds that slowing growth in residential property prices will also not influence the timing of a rise in the cash rate. Financial markets do not expect monetary policy to be tightened until at least late 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MELBOURNE BUSINESS SCHOOL

The way Australians bank

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-18

A Roy Morgan Single Source survey shows that ATMs remain the most used banking channel in Australia, with 83.4% of Australians aged 14+ using an ATM in the year to March (down 0.8%). Internet Banking is the second most used banking channel, with 54.2% using Internet Banking in the last 12 months (down 2.0%). The rapid increase in the use of mobile banking, with its higher satisfaction levels compared to branches, appears to have affected the number who use it compared to visiting a branch. Mobile banking usage is at 46.5% (up 3.1%), beating visiting a branch at 45.1% (down 3.5%). Phone Banking also saw an increase on 2017, with 24.1% of Australians aged 14+ using Phone Banking (up 1.6%).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Fed holds rates steady, June rise on cards

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Original article by Nick Timiraos
The Australian – Page: 34 : 4-May-18

Data from CME Group shows that most futures market traders expect the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in June, after the central bank left the cash rate on hold in May. However, futures traders rate the chances of monetary policy being tightened two more times beyond June at almost 50 per cent. The Federal Reserve has signalled that it will increase the cash rate gradually, despite recent data showing that inflation has reached its target of two per cent.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, JP MORGAN CHASE AND COMPANY, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, NOMURA SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

No change in rate, and RBA predicting more economic acceleration

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 2-May-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave official interest rates unchanged on 1 May was widely anticipated. The cash rate has now been on hold for an unprecedented 21 months. RBA governor Philip Lowe said the central bank still expects an increase in wages and inflation to be gradual, as will a fall in the unemployment rate. However, Lowe again said the Australian economy is likely to expand by more than three per cent in 2018 and 2019, compared with just 2.4 per cent in 2017.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA talks up rate rise, but not just yet

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 18-Apr-18

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s latest board meeting show that board members expect monetary policy to be tightened rather than eased, although they have indicated that this is unlikely in the near-term given the outlook for inflation and unemployment. Meanwhile, Bill Evans of Westpac says the central bank is likely to downgrade its growth forecast for the Australian economy in 2018 from 3.25 per cent to three per cent in its next statement on monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

First rate rise will shock, warns RBA’s Lowe

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 12-Apr-18

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that there is likely to be a gradual increase in economic growth and wages, which should ensure that interest rates remain on hold in the near-term. Lowe also used an Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce speech to emphasise that the cash rate is expected to rise rather than fall when the central bank next adjusts monetary policy, and he noted that interests have not risen for more than seven years. Some economists now expect the cash rate to remain at 1.5 per cent until 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA-ISRAEL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

RBA keeps rates level for 18th meeting in row

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Apr-18

The general consensus of economists is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not tighten monetary policy until 2019, after the cash rate was left unchanged at 1.5 per cent on 3 April. RBA governor Philip Lowe again stressed that there is likely to be a gradual fall in the unemployment rate and a rise in the inflation rate to the central bank’s target range. He also said low growth in wages is likely to persist for some time. The RBA has not adjusted official interest rates since August 2016.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, INDEED INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

US Fed set to rise further above RBA

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 32 : 23-Mar-18

The yield on US 10-year bonds has eased to 2.86 per cent in response to the Federal Reserve’s move to increase interest rates to 1.75 per cent. Kapstream Capital’s Steve Goldman expects the central bank to increase US rates to 2.5 per cent, adding that this is more likely to be in 2019 rather than 2018. The US federal funds rate is now higher than Australia’s cash rate for the first time since 2000. The interest rate differential is expected to widen, as the Federal Reserve has flagged further rate rises in 2018 and 2019. Most analysts do not expect the Reserve Bank to do so until at least the March 2019 quarter.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, KAPSTREAM CAPITAL PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

RBA in no hurry to follow Fed on interest rates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 21-Mar-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously forecast that economic growth would average around three per cent in 2018. However, the minutes of the central bank’s latest monthly board meeting show that it expects economic growth to exceed "potential growth" in 2018. Bill Evans of Westpac notes that the Reserve Bank deems potential growth to be 2.75 per cent. Meanwhile, there seems to be little prospect of a rise in Australia’s cash rate in the near-term, while the Federal Reserve is widely tipped to increase US rates in March.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED