BANKS AND BANKING

Australia forecast to follow Fed on rates

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 22-Dec-15

The Australian dollar has strengthened in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates. There is growing speculation that the Reserve Bank will begin tightening monetary policy in 2016, with BT Investment Management forecasting that the cash rate will rise from two per cent to 2.5 per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank expects monetary policy to remain unchanged, while the ANZ Bank has forecast that the cash rate will be cut to 1.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Easy money era coming to an end

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 18-Dec-15

The Australian sharemarket rose on 17 December 2015, in response to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates from historic lows. However, the Australian dollar lost ground in local trading, while the US dollar gained 0.95 per cent. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has given indications that there could potentially be four interest rate increases in 2016, although Mark Bayley of AquAsia has questioned whether there will be scope for such aggressive monetary policy tightening. Many analysts believe that two rate rises are more likely.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AQUASIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WELLS FARGO BANK

US stocks rise on Fed rate hike

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Original article by Chelsey Dulaney
The Australian – Page: Online : 17-Dec-15

The US Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its monetary policy meeting in mid-December 2015. It is the first rise in US short-term interest rates since December 2008. Investors will now be seeking guidance from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen on the likely timing of further rate increases. The move to tighten monetary policy has bolstered Wall Street, while the gold price and the US dollar have also risen.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, O’NEILL SECURITIES, NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX

RBA’s Stevens sees hope in jobs growth

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 16-Dec-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its economic growth forecast in November 2015, but governor Glenn Stevens does not believe another downgrade is needed in the near-term. Stevens has also given indications that further interest rate cuts may not be necessary in the current monetary policy cycle, noting that the unemployment rate is well below the central bank’s expectations earlier in 2015. He adds that the downturn in commodity prices may put further downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Surprise job boom rules out rate cut

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 11-Dec-15

Official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy added 71,400 jobs in November 2015, while a total of 301,700 jobs have been created since the start of the year. The national unemployment rate has fallen to 5.8 per cent, while the unemployment rate in New South Wales has fallen to 5.2 per cent. Some 127,000 jobs have been created nationwide in the last two months, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate on hold in February 2016.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

US dollar bull run not over as world monetary policy splits

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 25-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was buying around $US0.72 late in trading on 24 November 2015, after reaching an intra-day low of $US0.7159 in the previous session. PIMCO portfolio manager Luke Spajic anticipates further support for the US dollar in the current monetary policy environment, with the Federal Reserve poised to increase interest rates and many other central banks likely to reduce interest rates. There is growing expectation that US interest rates will rise in December.

CORPORATES
PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

$A likely to dip into the 50c range, says Macro Currency

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 13-Nov-15

Mark Farrington of Macro Currency Group says the Australian dollar remains overvalued, despite its fall in recent months. He estimates that the currency needs to fall by another 10 per cent to the $US0.50 range as the economy rebalances. Meanwhile, Farrington expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate another two times in the current monetary policy easing cycle, adding that the first cut could be in the June 2016 quarter.

CORPORATES
MACRO CURRENCY GROUP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

$A tipped below US70c by year end

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 9-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was buying $US0.7032 on the weekend of 7-8 November 2015, after dipping to $US0.7023. The currency was sold down in response to stronger-than-forecast growth in US jobs during October, which has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the cash rate in December. Joseph Capurso of the Commonwealth Bank believes that the Australian dollar could be trading within the range of $US0.68 to $US0.69 by the end of 2015.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Dollar jumps as RBA wrong-foots punters with cash rate

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 4-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was fetching $US0.7199 late in trading on 3 November 2015. The currency reached an intra-day high of $US0.7209 after the Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold. Central bank governor Glenn Stevens indicated that there may be potential for further rate cuts given the low inflation rate. Felicity Emmett of the ANZ Bank expects the cash rate to be left on hold again in December before being reduced in February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JAMIESONCOOTEBONDS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Nailing cup victor easier than RBA pick

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Original article by Jacob Greber, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 3-Nov-15

It is difficult to guess whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide to cut the official interest rate when the board of the central bank meets on 3 November 2015. Economists from Australia’s four big banks believe that the cash rate will remain unchanged at two per cent. Some analysts expect a cut, stressing the fact that headline inflation was only at 1.5 per cent in the September quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD