BANKS AND BANKING

$A ignores RBA ‘jawboning’ and pushes to eight-month high

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 18-Mar-16

The Australian dollar was trading at $US0.7591 in late local trade on 17 March 2016. The local currency has been rising for some time and even words of caution by Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle failed to affect it. Debelle told a foreign exchange seminar in Sydney that Australia needs a weaker domestic currency.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Aussie tests US76c as central banks ponder

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 14-Mar-16

Market watchers expect Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to gain 0.8 per cent when trading resumes on 14 March 2016. The market is likely to benefit from a positive lead from overseas bourses and encouraging economic data from China. Investors will also be awaiting the outcome of the monetary policy meetings of the US and Japanese central banks in coming days, as well as the release of the latest jobs data in Australia.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, ROUBINI GLOBAL ECONOMICS LLC, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, BLOOMBERG LP

Global search for Reserve boss on the cards: Costello

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 2-Mar-16

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens will step down in September 2016, after 10 years in the role. The Federal Government may accelerate the appointment of a successor given that it is an election year. Deputy governor Philip Lowe is widely seen as the leading contender to replace Stevens, but former federal treasurer Peter Costello believes that international candidates should be considered. Martin Parkinson, David Gruen and Warwick McKibbin have been touted as potential successors to Stevens.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, BANK OF ENGLAND, TD SECURITIES, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANK OF JAPAN

Higher dollar not enough to kill RBA’s chill

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Feb-16

There is general consensus among economists that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged at two per cent on 1 March 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital is among the economists who expect an interest rate cut at some point in 2016. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank’s Michael Blythe does not expect the central bank to resume "jawboning" the Australian dollar in its monetary policy statement, despite its recent rise to a seven-week high.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN

Australia at risk from hard landing in China

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 18-Feb-16

The Chinese economy expanded by just 6.9 per cent in 2015, and Oxford Economics forecasts a gradual slowing of economic growth over the next five years. However, Sian Fenner of Oxford Economics warns that Australia could face a recession in 2016 if the Chinese economy experiences a "hard landing". Fenner adds that in the event of a recession the Reserve Bank could reduce the cash rate to just 0.25 per cent, which would limit the extent of the economic downturn.

CORPORATES
OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AVIVA PLC, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

Rate cut in near future seen as unlikely

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 22-Jan-16

The general consensus of Australian economists is that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged in February 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP is the only economist out of 14 who believes that recent financial market volatility could result in an interest rate cut. He adds that the upcoming release of inflation data for the December 2015 quarter is likely to be the deciding factor. Meanwhile, the ANZ Bank’s chief economist Warren Hogan expects the cash rate to be cut in May and August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, BANK OF CANADA, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

RBA tipped to make cuts around mid-year

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 20-Jan-16

Data from Citigroup shows that financial markets believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia is now almost certain to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in June 2016. There is a 20 per cent chance of a rate cut in February, and a 40 per cent chance of a rate cut in March. Factors such as the downturn in the crude oil price and the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy are like to influence the central bank’s monetary policy deliberations. The cash rate has remained on hold since May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CITIBANK PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ASX loses $50b in new year rout

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 7-Jan-16

A move by the People’s Bank of China to devalue the renminbi by 0.22 per cent weighed on the Australian sharemarket on 6 January 2016. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index fell by around 1.2 per cent. It has now shed 3.3 per cent in the year to date, reducing the local sharemarket’s capitalisation by $A50bn. Global investor sentiment in 2016 has also been hit by factors such as concerns about the economic outlook for China, weak commodity prices and North Korea’s detonation of a hydrogen bomb.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, PEAK ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, HSBC BANK PLC, SOCIETE GENERALE, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BLOOMBERG LP

Australia forecast to follow Fed on rates

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 22-Dec-15

The Australian dollar has strengthened in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates. There is growing speculation that the Reserve Bank will begin tightening monetary policy in 2016, with BT Investment Management forecasting that the cash rate will rise from two per cent to 2.5 per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank expects monetary policy to remain unchanged, while the ANZ Bank has forecast that the cash rate will be cut to 1.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Easy money era coming to an end

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 18-Dec-15

The Australian sharemarket rose on 17 December 2015, in response to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates from historic lows. However, the Australian dollar lost ground in local trading, while the US dollar gained 0.95 per cent. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has given indications that there could potentially be four interest rate increases in 2016, although Mark Bayley of AquAsia has questioned whether there will be scope for such aggressive monetary policy tightening. Many analysts believe that two rate rises are more likely.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AQUASIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WELLS FARGO BANK