How the bond market forced Trump to retreat

Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 11-Apr-25

A dramatic sell-off of US treasuries led to US President Donald Trump announcing a 90-day reprieve of reciprocal tariffs on all countries bar China, rather than the recent sell-off on Wall Street that some have suggested. The sell-off of US treasuries was attributed to global investors such as China and Japan losing faith in the US, and was compounded by hedge funds unwinding what is known as the ‘basis trade’. Despite Trump’s decision to pause his reciprocal tariffs, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says there could still be a recession in the US, with Oliver saying the significant damage that Trump has done to confidence in the US will be hard to recover.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Bond guru sees US Treasury yields rising to 4pc

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 24 : 17-Oct-18

Data from Bloomberg shows that most market watchers expect the yield on US 10-year bonds to remain below 3.5 per cent until 2020, despite its recent spike to 3.26 per cent. However, Steve Miller of Grant Samuel Funds Management forecasts that the 10-year bond yield could potentially top four per cent in 2019. He cites factors such as the strength of the US economy, the prospect of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve and the fact that it is slated to wind back its bond holdings in coming years.

CORPORATES
GRANT SAMUEL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLACKROCK INCORPORATED

Surging bond yields to test stock bulls’ mettle

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 18-May-18

The yield on US 10-year government bonds peaked at a new seven-year high of 3.12 per cent in Asian trading on 17 May. Given the low level of sharemarket volatility at present, there is the potential for a correction, as was the case in February when the bond yield rose to 2.9 per cent. A growing number of market watchers are advising investors to retain overweight positions with regard to equities in the current environment, while Ric Deverell of Macquarie Group expects the 10-year bond yield to rise toward four per cent in the medium-term.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, BLOOMBERG LP, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Bond proxies and dollar feel pinch as US yields surge to seven-year high

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 17-May-18

The Australian dollar has fallen below $US0.75 after the yield on US 10-year government bonds peaked at 3.09 per cent, the highest level in seven years. This in turn prompted a sell-off of Australian-listed bond proxy stocks on 16 May, despite the local sharemarket posting a slight gain for the day. Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse expects global bond yields to rise further, and notes that Australian government bonds have a lower risk profile at present due to factors such as the nation’s low official interest rates.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, VANGUARD INVESTMENTS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP – ASX SKI, APA GROUP – ASX APA, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, DEXUS RENTS TRUST, GPT GROUP – ASX GPT

Uncanny resemblance between today’s sharemarket and 1987

Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 2-Mar-18

Independent strategist Russell Napier says growth in M2 money supply in the US has fallen significantly in 2018, noting the parallels with US money supply in the year leading up to the sharemarket crash in October 1987. The rise in the yield on US 10-year bonds in 2018 has also mirrored the upward trend in 1987, albeit to a much lower level. At around 2.9 per cent, the bond yield is still well below the 1987 peak of 10.1 per cent, but Napier points out that the recent rise has been much larger in percentage terms.

CORPORATES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

Party over with bondcano ready to erupt

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 6-Jul-17

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries peaked at 2.35 per cent in early July 2017, compared with a record low of 1.32 per cent in mid-2016. Credit Suisse forecasts that the yield will reach 2.8 per cent by the end of 2017, as some of the world’s leading central banks begin tightening monetary policy. Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse warns that Australian-listed "bond proxy" stocks in particular are vulnerable to rising bond yields.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, APA GROUP – ASX APA, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, AUSNET SERVICES LIMITED – ASX AST, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP – ASX MQA, CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC, INVESTA OFFICE FUND – ASX IOF, BWP TRUST – ASX BWP, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC, ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED – ASX ECX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF ENGLAND, BANK OF CANADA, INSTITUTE FOR SUPPLY MANAGEMENT

Fortescue refinances to fortify its books

Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 42 : 10-May-17

Fortescue Metals Group has raised $US1bn ($1.36bn) via the issuance of five- and seven-year bonds. It was the pure-play iron ore miner’s first foray into the bond market for more than two years, and the proceeds will be used to repay some $A976m worth of debt that is due in 2019. Fortescue’s remaining debt will not have to be repaid until at least 2022. Its total debt has fallen below $US4bn, compared with a peak of $US10.7bn.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Wall Street could stop ASX bull run

Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 11-Apr-17

The S&P/ASX 200’s rise above the 5,900-point level has prompted renewed speculation that it could test 6,000 points. However, the near-term outlook for the benchmark index will depend on the US earnings season, and data from Bloomberg shows that the number of companies that have provided earnings guidance in the last month has fallen to the lowest level since 1999. Meanwhile, borrowings costs may rise as offshore investors bail out of US treasuries and the Federal Reserve prepares to divest $US2.46trn worth of treasuries.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, THOMSON REUTERS PLC, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT

Stocks bounce back, buoyed by Trump’s fiscal optimism

Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 & 34 : 11-Nov-16

The Australian sharemarket posted its largest single-day gain in more than five years on 10 November 2016, while Wall Street defied expectations of a big fall after the election of Donald Trump, finishing in the black. The Australian dollar also rallied, while local and US 10-year bond yields rose. Financial markets have scaled back the odds of a reduction in Australia’s cash rate by mid-2017, while there has been a slight easing of expectations of a rate rise in the US in December 2016.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, QIC LIMITED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Brexit II pushes Aussie bonds to record low

Original article by Vesna Poljak, James Chessell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 29 : 7-Jul-16

The yield on Australia’s 10-year government bond fell to a record low of 1.84 per cent on 6 July 2016. Bearish sentiment toward equities also prompted the yield on US Treasuries to fall to 1.34 per cent. The global shift to "safe haven" assets also prompted a rally in the gold price, which reached its highest level in two years. Meanwhile, the fallout from the UK’s vote to leave the European Union is continuing, with several British property funds moving to freeze redemptions.

CORPORATES
UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BANK OF ENGLAND, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 BANKS INDEX, AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS PTY LTD, M&G INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, AVIVA PLC, STANDARD LIFE PLC, YOUGOV LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, SPDR GOLD TRUST, COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF NEW YORK