BUDGET – AUSTRALIA

$20bn resources boost to budget

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Mar-19

The federal government’s April 2019 Budget bottom line is expected to be boosted by a sharp rise in earnings from resource and energy exports. The value of such exports is forecast to have grown by about $20bn since the December quarter, due to a rise the prices of key commodities. Meanwhile, the Budget is set to include $2.2m worth of additional funding for road safety programs over the next four years, with about half of this to be allocated to regional projects. The government will also establish an Office of Road ­Safety.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

PM’s war chest to reach $70bn

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Original article by Simon Benson, David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 28-Mar-19

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimates that the federal government could post a combined surplus of about $60bn between 2019-20 and 2021-22. CBA adds that the government could have up to $70bn at its disposal for spending initiatives during the upcoming election campaign, including scope for up to $6bn in additional tax cuts. Meanwhile, economists at National Australia Bank have flagged the possibility that the Budget will be returned to surplus in 2018-19, which is a year earlier than the government has forecast.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Tax cuts offset low wages: Libs

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 25-Mar-19

The federal government’s April 2019 Budget is expected to include an election sweetener in the form of billions of dollars worth of income tax cuts, in addition to those that were legislated in 2018. Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos says tax cuts that target low and middle-income earners will provide some relief from the rising cost of living until wages begin growing. However, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen argues that tax cuts are not a substitute for wages growth, adding that Labor’s policy will provide greater tax relief for people on low and middle incomes.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Gladys triumph: PM eyes May 11

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Original article by Simon Benson, Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 25-Mar-19

The New South Wales government is set to retain office with a majority of up to two seats after gaining 42.7 per cent of the primary vote in the state election on 23 March. Labor’s primary vote was 33 per cent, while the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers Party won two seats from the National Party in regional and rural areas. Meanwhile, the federal government is expected to hold an election on 11 May, with a five-week election campaign likely to be announced days after the Budget on 2 April. Sources have indicated that the government will seek to shore up support in regional and rural areas by including a regional ­economic development package in the Budget.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, SHOOTERS, FISHERS AND FARMERS PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, NATIONAL IRRIGATORS COUNCIL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Surplus powered by iron ore and coal

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 19-Mar-19

Ernst & Young expects the federal Budget’s bottom line to be $9.2bn better off over the next two years than Treasury had forecast in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. The firm’s modelling of the Budget outcome is based on factors such as the price of iron ore and coal. Iron ore has averaged $US72 per tonne so far in 2018-19, compared with the MYEFO forecast of $U55/tonne. The price of metallurgical coal is also trading well above the MYEFO forecast so far in the current financial year.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Risky bet tax cuts tip for budget

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 18-Mar-19

A report from Deloitte Access Economics suggests that there is scope for the federal government to include tax cuts of up to $12bn a year in the April 2019 Budget. The government has previously committed to $144bn worth of personal income tax cuts over six years, and Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics says one option would be to bring forward these tax cuts by three years. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital Investors agrees that the Budget could feature tax cuts, saying it would be unlikely to affect the timing of a return to a surplus.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Tax cuts key as economy struggles

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Original article by Adam Creighton, David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-Mar-19

The Commonwealth Bank’s chief economist Michael Blythe says the federal government should use its April 2019 Budget to announce more aggressive tax cuts than previously flagged. His view is backed by AMP’s Shane Oliver, who has called for tax cuts worth $6bn for people on low and middle incomes. Blythe has also disputed claims of a ‘per capita’ recession, arguing that key economic indicators suggest otherwise. He adds that despite lower GDP growth in 2018, real net national disposable income per capita increased by 2.1 per cent.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Resources boom gives government wriggle room

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 7-Mar-19

Higher commodity prices in 2018 resulted in nominal GDP growth of 5.5 per cent for the calendar year. The mid-year Budget update in December had forecast nominal GDP growth of 4.75 per cent in 2018-19 and just 3.5 per cent in 2019-20. Treasury is likely to revise these forecasts in the April 2019 Budget, although it is expected to scale back economic growth forecasts in response to the national accounts data for the December quarter. Meanwhile, company and personal income tax revenue rose by 11.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively in 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Iron and coal to deliver surprise budget bonanza

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 12-Feb-19

Federal government revenue will be boosted by the recent rally in the prices of Australia’s key export commodities. The mid-year budget update had forecast that the iron ore price would average $US55 per tonne in the first half of 2019, but it is widely tipped to reach $US100/tonne in coming days. The price of coking coal also remains well above the budget update’s forecast. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics expects the government to use the revenue gains to provide cash hand-outs in the April 2019 Budget.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Budget surplus on track, says Frydenberg

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Original article by Lucas Baird
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 23-Jan-19

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg remains confident that the federal government will return the Budget to surplus in 2019-20. This is despite domestic and global headwinds, including the International Monetary Fund’s latest downgrade of its global economic growth forecast. Frydenberg also used a Sydney Institute speech to warn that the domestic economy cannot afford Labor’s proposed $200bn package of tax increases. He added that unlike Labor, the Coalition will increase health, education and infrastructure spending without increasing taxes.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, SYDNEY INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY