BUDGET – AUSTRALIA

Morrison’s ‘recession’ warning

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Phillip Coorey, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 25-Aug-16

Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison will use a speech on 25 August 2016 to highlight the risks to the economy if action is not taken to address the nation’s rising debt and Budget deficit. He will warn about the dangers of allowing complacency regarding Budget repair to set in, and stress that it will be much easier to pursue necessary reforms now rather than waiting until the country goes into recession. Morrison will argue that a balanced Budget, more private investment, and increased free trade and foreign investment are essential to avoid a recession.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Coalition cuts add $221bn to budget

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Crowe
The Australian – Page: 4 : 23-Aug-16

Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has indicated that the Budget bottom line will be boosted by $A26bn over the next four years, due to spending cuts that have been made since the Coalition took office in 2013. The Coalition also estimates that spending cuts could potentially bolster the Budget by about $A221bn over the next decade or so. Cormann has also urged the Australian Labor Party to support some $A6.5bn worth of spending cuts that it did not oppose during the 2016 election campaign.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

$100bn hit to deepen budget debt crisis

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 19-Aug-16

Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics has warned that the Federal Budget may remain in deficit for some time. The Treasury has forecast that net debt will peak at $A356bn before falling to around $A335bn in 2021-22. However, Richardson’s analysis suggests that net debt could rise to $A440bn by 2021-22 if the nation records nominal GDP growth of 3.5 per cent and the Senate continues to reject the Government’s proposed spending cuts. May 2016 Budget forecasts are based on nominal GDP rising from 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 to five per cent by 2017.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

AAA: Six months to get budget under control

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber, Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 8-Jul-16

Treasurer Scott Morrison says the Federal Government will still aim to achieve a Budget surplus in 2020-21, in order to avert the loss of Australia’s coveted triple-A credit rating. Standard & Poor’s has downgraded the nation’s credit rating outlook to "negative" and warned that it will closely monitor the government’s fiscal performance over the next 6-12 months. The ratings agency also indicated that Australia’s "AAA" rating may be at risk due to the nation’s rising foreign debt.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET

Hung parliament lifts risk of credit downgrade

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Jul-16

Standard & Poor’s is tipped to review Australia’s "AAA" credit rating in the wake of the federal election. S&P has indicated that the nation’s credit rating may be downgraded unless the next government can implement measures to reduce the Budget deficit. Fitch Ratings has also warned of the potential for a downgrade if a hung parliament results in policies that further increase the deficit. However, Moody’s notes that Australia’s government debt remains much lower than the majority of developed economies.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Stop digging, we’re deep enough in this fiscal hole

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Judith Sloan
The Weekend Australian – Page: 24 : 21-May-16

The Australian Government’s policies means the nation faces cumulative budget deficits of $A85bn over the next four years, although this is based on GDP and revenue projections that are unlikely to be realised. The May 2016 Budget papers also show that the deficit will blow out to $A584bn in 2019-20, compared with $A499bn in 2016-17. Australia is almost certain to lose its triple-A credit rating long before 2025-26, when the deficit will top $A647bn. However, the Australian Labor Party’s election policies would ensure that the Budget is even worse off than under a Coalition government.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENTS

Low wage growth sparks bleak outlook

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 7 : 19-May-16

The Department of the Treasury will release its pre-election economic and fiscal outlook on 20 May 2016. It is not expected to make any significant changes to the forecasts in the May 2016 Budget, although the outlook report is likely to highlight the risks to the Budget if the forecasts are not met. Slowing wages growth is looming as a key risk for the Budget, which has forecast wages growth of 2.25 per cent in 2015-16 and 2.5 per cent in 2016-17. Wages grew by just 2.1 per cent over the last year.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Coalition sells policy changes as ‘fair’

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Dennis Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 6 : 13-May-16

The Australian Government has defended its May 2106 Budget measures on the taxation of superannuation, with Cabinet Secretary Arthur Sinodinos and ex-prime minister Tony Abbott stressing that the changes are not retrospective. Sinodinos says the fact that some wealthy people are concerned about the changes demonstrates that the proposed reforms are fair. Abbott describes the reforms as a "gutsy call" by the Government and the right course of action.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS LIMITED

Iron ore blows hole in budget

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 11-May-16

Revenue forecasts in the Australian Government’s May 2016 Budget are based on expectations that the iron ore price will average $US55 over the next two years. The price of the steel input is currently trading at around this level, but futures market quotes in Singapore suggest that it could fall to about $US50. Meanwhile, Justin Smirk of Westpac warns that the iron ore price could potentially fall below $US40, before stabilising at about $US42.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence unchanged at 113.9 after RBA rate cut and Federal Budget

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia remained unchanged at 113.9 in the week ended 8 May 2016. While the Reserve Bank’s cut to the official cash rate is likely to have been well received, any positive impact looks to have been somewhat offset by consumers’ reaction to the Commonwealth Budget. Consumers’ views towards their current personal finances fell 0.8 per cent, and consumers’ views toward the economic conditions in the next 12 months fell 1.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA