BUDGET – AUSTRALIA

Foreign buyers to be banned from purchasing existing homes

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Original article by Remy Varga
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that the federal government will impose a two-year ban on foreigners buying established homes, with the policy slated to take effect from 1 April. The budget has allocated $5.7m for the Australian Taxation Office to enforce the ban, while the ATO will be given $8.9m to crack down on ‘land banking’ by foreign buyers. The government will also expand the Help to Buy shared equity scheme for home buyers, and provide eligible construction industry apprentices with grants of up to $10,000 as part of its strategy to address the skills shortage that is contributing to the housing crisis.

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AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE

Conservative commodity price forecasts offer revenue windfall

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that the Treasury is continuing to adopt a conservative approach to commodity price forecasts. The budget’s revenue forecasts are based on expectations that the iron ore price will fall to $US60 per tonne at port by the end of March 2026; the price of the steel input is currently trading at around $US100 per tonne. UBS recently forecast that the iron ore price will remain within a range of $US90 to $US100/tonne for the next five years. The Treasury’s forecasts for other key commodities such as coal and LNG are also significantly below current prices.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Tariff war impact ‘modest’: Treasury

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 2 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that Australia is now expected to record economic growth of just 1.5 per cent in 2025, compared with forecasts of two per cent growth in the 2024 budget and 1.75 per cent growth in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has conceded that the Trump administration’s tariffs policy will have a slight impact on Australia’s economic growth. The Treasury’s modelling suggests that the combined direct and indirect impact of the tariffs on the Australian economy by 2030 is likely to be modest.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$17b tax cut sparks poll fight

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 26-Mar-25

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has accused the federal election of an election bribe after it used the 2025 budget to announce a tax cut. The cut will see the 16 per cent tax rate, which applies to workers earning between $18,201 and $45,000, reduced to 15 per cent from 1 July 2026, with the rate then being cut to 14 per cent from 1 July 2027; all up, the cuts will save workers in that earning bracket $536 a year and will be worth $17.1 billion over five years. Taylor said the Opposition would not support the proposed tax cuts, while the budget forecasts a deficit of $27.6 billion for this financial year, increasing to $42 billion in 2025-26.

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ALP’s fiscal reckoning

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 25-Mar-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal budget is in much better shape than when Labor took office in May 2022. He adds that tonight’s budget will help to "finish the fight against inflation" and ease the cost-of-living crisis. The budget papers are expected to show that gross debt will total $940bn in 2024-25, which equates to about 36 per cent of GDP; this compares with the forecast of 35.2 per cent in the 2024 budget. Chalmers has emphasised Labor’s economic credentials, noting that it has delivered two surpluses in its first term and reduced the former Coalition government’s debt by $177bn. However, the budget will be in deficit for 2024-25, and Chalmers has conceded that it is unlikely to return to surplus for at least a decade.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Chalmers’ budget update locks in extra $25bn of unavoidable expenditure

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Original article by Jack Quail, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-Dec-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although global economic volatility is weighing on the federal budget, Labor has delivered two surpluses and lower debt since taking office in May 2022. Meanwhile, the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Wednesday will feature some $25.1bn worth of additional government spending; this will include $16.3bn for increased welfare payments, childcare subsidies and cost of living relief. The government describes this as ‘automatic spending increases’, while Finance Minister Katy Gallagher has flagged $8.8bn of ‘unavoidable spending’. Independent economic Chris Richardson refutes suggestions that some expenditure cannot be avoided.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

Chalmers’ budget update locks in extra $25bn of unavoidable expenditure

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Original article by Jack Quail, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-Dec-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although global economic volatility is weighing on the federal budget, Labor has delivered two surpluses and lower debt since taking office in May 2022. Meanwhile, the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Wednesday will feature some $25.1bn worth of additional government spending; this will include $16.3bn for increased welfare payments, childcare subsidies and cost of living relief. The government describes this as ‘automatic spending increases’, while Finance Minister Katy Gallagher has flagged $8.8bn of ‘unavoidable spending’. Independent economic Chris Richardson refutes suggestions that some expenditure cannot be avoided.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

ALP hidden spending to top $87b

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 27-Nov-24

The federal government’s growing trend towards ‘off-budget’ spending will be a key contributor to the overall deficit blowout that Deloitte Access Economics has forecast. The firm expects the government to post an underlying deficit of $33.5bn for 2024-25, but it estimates that the headline deficit will be $54.8bn. Economist Chris Richardson says the latter figure deserves greater scrutiny, as it can be used to conceal the real state of the nation’s finances. So-called off-budget spending – which does not affect the budget deficit or surplus – is forecast to reach a record $87.1bn over the next four years.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Deficit disorder: spending blows budget

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Nov-24

Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to post a budget deficit of $33.5bn for 2024-25, following a surplus of $15.8bn for the 2023-24 financial year. The Treasury itself had forecast a 2024-25 deficit of $28.3bn, and a cumulative deficit of $122.1bn over the four-year estimates period; Deloitte now expects the latter figure to be $149bn. Deloitte partner Stephen Smith adds that both the government and the Opposition will face pressure to provide further cost-of-living relief ahead of the 2025 election. Deloitte also notes that there has been a sharp increase in ‘off-budget’ spending, while the firm expects net debt to reach $727.6bn by mid-2028.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

May poll firms as Labor sets its budget date

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 11-Oct-24

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has frequently reiterated that the current parliament will run for its full term and he will not call an early election. The draft parliamentary sitting schedule for 2025 suggests that he still intends to go to the polls in May, given that Labor has pencilled in 25 March to hand down the budget. This would make 3 May the earliest possible date for an election, while the Constitition requires it to be held no later than 17 May. Meanwhile, Labor has advised that parliamentary inquiry into nuclear energy is slated to deliver its final report by the end of April; building seven nuclear power plants will be part of the Coalition’s election platform.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY