BUDGET – AUSTRALIA

Lower taxes to wait for spending cuts

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 16-Mar-16

Treasurer Scott Morrison has indicated that the Australian Government’s May 2016 Budget will include a reduction in superannuation tax concessions. However, he has warned that this measure will not be sufficient to finance a significant income tax cut. Morrison says a reduction in government spending rather than increasing other taxes is the best strategy in both the short- and long-term for reducing taxes.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

PM ‘won’t blow’ iron ore bonus

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 11-Mar-16

The benchmark iron ore price has fallen below $US60 per tonne, although it remains significantly above the forecast of just $US39/tonne in the Australian Government’s mid-year Budget update. A sustained upturn in the price of the steel input could potentially boost government revenue by up to $A15bn over four years. However, government sources have indicated that the additional revenue will be used to reduce the deficit instead of financing larger tax cuts than the modest reduction that the Government is planning.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF IMMIGRATION AND BORDER PROTECTION

Resources surge offers PM hope of budget boost

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 9-Mar-16

The Australian Government’s Budget bottom line is expected to be boosted by the rebound in commodity prices. Iron ore and crude oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, which may help to offset the $A7bn in forgone government revenue due to the sharp downturn in commodity prices in 2015. The iron ore price has risen above $US60 per tonne in early March, compared with the Government’s revised forecast of just $US39/tonne in its mid-year Budget update in December.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Early budget talk, election options narrow

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 8-Mar-16

The Australian Government is considering moving the Budget forward one week to 3 May 2016. Should it opt to call a double-dissolution election, it must do so no later than 11 May in order to hold such an election on its preferred date of 2 July. A half-Senate election in August is also being considered. The bill to reinstate the Australian Building & Construction Commission remains a potential trigger for a double-dissolution election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT, LIBERAL PARTY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

Iron ore rally could mean budget windfall

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Original article by Mark Mulligan, Gareth Hutchens
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 22-Feb-16

The iron ore price has rallied to its highest level in three months, and it is now higher than the price that was forecast in the Australian Government’s 2015 mid-year Budget update. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics estimates that Government revenue could be boosted by about $A1.2bn if the iron ore price remains at around its current level until the mid-year update in November 2016. Paul Bloxham of HSBC adds that the LNG price will also be a significant factor for the Budget update.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

Infrastructure financial backing falls by $16b

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 8-Feb-16

The "asset recycling program" that was announced in the Australian Government’s May 2014 Budget was expected to generate $A126.3bn worth of infrastructure investment by the states and the private sector. However, new figures show that this estimate has been scaled back to $A110bn. The Federal Government’s original proposal to invest $A50bn on infrastructure projects has in turn been reduced by $A1.4bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY. CRAWFORD SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND GOVERNMENT

Terms of trade slump mires budget outlook

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jan-16

The Australian Government’s mid-year budget update in December 2015 had forecast a 10.5 per cent decline in the nation’s terms of trade in 2015-16. However, the latest trade data has prompted analysts to estimate that the terms of trade declined by between 4.5 per cent and 5.2 per cent in the December 2015 quarter. The downturn in the prices of key export commodities have hit the terms of trade, which may in turn significantly impact on government revenue.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED

Coalition gives up on surplus

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 16-Dec-15

The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecasts that the 2015-16 Budget deficit will blow out to $A37.4bn, compared with expectations of $A35.1bn in May. The deficit will also be higher than expected in the following three fiscal years, while GDP growth forecasts have been reduced for both 2015 and 2016. Meanwhile, the worsening Budget deficit may prompt ratings agencies to review Australia’s triple-A credit rating, although Stephen Walters of JP Morgan says this is unlikely in the near-term.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Budget deficit blown to $38b

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 14-Dec-15

The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook will include a significant reduction in Budget forecasts for the price of iron ore in 2015-16. The downturn in the price of the steel input will contribute to the deficit blowing out to around $A38bn. Meanwhile, government spending will rise to 26.2 per cent of GDP in 2015-16, compared with expectations of just 25.9 per cent in the May 2015 Budget. The Government is also tipped to significantly reduce its projections for longer-term economic growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

Iron ore price plunge to blow $15bn hole in budget

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 10-Dec-15

The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook will need to contend with the sharp decline in the iron ore price since the May 2015 Budget. Revenue projections in the Budget were based on an average iron ore price of $US48 per tonne, but the price of the steel input has since fallen below $US40/tonne. The downturn in the iron ore price could reduce the Budget bottom line by around $A15bn over the next four years.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC