BUDGET DEFICITS – AUSTRALIA

Budget bottom line improves but is still bright red

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 17-Dec-25

The federal government’s Mid-Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook is expected to include a revised 2025-26 budget deficit of $36.8bn. This compares with the government’s forecast of a $42.2bn deficit ahead of the federal election in May. The MYEFO is also expected to show that the cumulative budget deficit over the next four years will be $143.5bn, down from the pre-election forecast of $151.9bn. Government revenue has been boosted by a range of factors, including a surge in the gold price, higher-than-expected iron ore prices and an increase in personal income tax.

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Albanese’s budget deficit lie challenged

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Apr-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is continuing to attract scrutiny over his claims regarding the size of the budget deficit that Labor inherited in May 2022. Albanese recently responded to a report from S&P Global on the future of Australia’s triple-A credit rating by stating that the Coalition had left Labor with a $78bn deficit, which it subsequently turned into a $22bn surplus. However, the $78bn deficit was merely a Treasury forecast during the 2022 election campaign, and the final budget outcome for 2021-22 was a deficit of just $32bn. The surplus of $22bn was in fact for 2022-23, which was Labor’s first full financial year in office.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Deficit disorder: spending blows budget

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Nov-24

Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to post a budget deficit of $33.5bn for 2024-25, following a surplus of $15.8bn for the 2023-24 financial year. The Treasury itself had forecast a 2024-25 deficit of $28.3bn, and a cumulative deficit of $122.1bn over the four-year estimates period; Deloitte now expects the latter figure to be $149bn. Deloitte partner Stephen Smith adds that both the government and the Opposition will face pressure to provide further cost-of-living relief ahead of the 2025 election. Deloitte also notes that there has been a sharp increase in ‘off-budget’ spending, while the firm expects net debt to reach $727.6bn by mid-2028.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$13b surplus tipped but Labor needs credible plan

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 1-May-24

Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to post a budget surplus of $13.4bn for 2023-24. The government itself had forecast a full-year deficit of $1.1bn in its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. Deloitte says the budget bottom-line will be boosted by $14.5bn in additional company tax receipts and a $5.6bn increase in personal income tax revenue due to the strong labour market. Deloitte partner Stephen Smith says that while Labor is on track for a second successive budget surplus, this is unlikely to be repeated in 2024-25 due to the goverment’s spending plans. Smith adds that the Future Made in Australia policy could further undermine the budget position.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

ALP’s deficit warning despite $50bn boost

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 21-Sep-22

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has advised that the Budget deficit for 2021-22 is now likely to be around $30bn, compared with expectations of about $79.8bn just four months ago. Government revenue has been $28bn higher than forecast due to factors such as rising commodity prices. Government payments are in turn $20bn lower than expected, with a record low official unemployment rate resulting in a sharp fall in welfare payments. However, Chalmers says the improvement in the Budget bottom line has been largely driven by temporary factors, and he notes that the prices of key commodities have fallen since the start of the financial year. Chalmers is expecting a bigger deficit for 2022-23.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Lockdowns no barrier to budget tax jump

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Original article by John Kehoe, Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 1-Oct-21

The federal government has advised that the Budget deficit blew out to a record $134.2bn in 2020-21, although this is well below the government’s worst-case scenario forecasts. Meanwhile, data from the Department of Finance shows that the underlying cash deficit for the first two months of 2021-21 was $22bn, compared with a forecast of $28.1bn in the Budget in May. Government revenue for the period was $12.1bn higher than had been forecast in the Budget, with higher-than-expected revenue from personal and company taxes.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

RBA lauds $50bn budget boost

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 21-Apr-21

The federal government had forecast a $198bn Budget deficit for 2020-21 in its mid-year economic and financial outlook. The Department of Finance has advised that the Budget bottom line improved by $23bn during the first eight months of the financial year; some economists now expect the full-year deficit to be about $50bn lower than had been forecast in December. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia says the strong economic rebound has seen national GDP growth return to its pre-pandemic level. The RBA reiterated in the minutes of its monthly board meeting that the cash rate is likely to remain on hold until at least 2024.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Mine export surge holds up economy

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Mar-21

The federal government expects the value of Australia’s resources and energy exports to top $296bn in 2020-21, after a record $291bn in the previous financial year. The surge in export earnings will be driven by iron ore; the Department of Industry, Science, Energy & Resources now expects iron ore earnings to total $136bn, compared with its forecast in December of $123bn for the financial year. However, exports of LNG, thermal coal and coking coal are forecast to be lower in 2020-21. The record resources and energy exports will boost the Budget bottom line, with the full-year deficit now expected to be $150bn.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE, ENERGY AND RESOURCES

Deficit high but less than predicted

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Original article by Adam Creighton,Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 4 : 28-Sep-20

Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to announce a 2020-21 Budget deficit of $198.5bn on 6 October. This is just $14bn higher than the government had forecast in June. Chris Richardson of Deloitte says personal and corporate income tax receipts will exceed the government’s low expectations, while commodity prices have been more resilient than anticipated. He notes that the iron ore price in particular is still well above the Treasury’s projections. However, Deloitte expects federal debt to be about $401bn higher than the government’s pre-pandemic forecasts in 2023.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

AAA rating defies $184b deficit

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Jul-20

The Australian economy will contract by 2.25 per cent in 2020-21, according to forecasts in the federal government’s economic update. The nation’s official unemployment rate is in turn projected to rise from 7.4 per cent at present to 9.25 per cent by the end of the year. Treasury has also forecast a Budget deficit of $85.5bn for 2019-20, rising to around $184.5bn in 2020-21. Meanwhile, the nation’s gross debt is slated to top $851.9bn in 2020-21. Moody’s and S&P have indicated that the economic update will have no impact on Australia’s triple-A credit rating.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS