BUDGET SURPLUSES – AUSTRALIA

Stalled spend lifts surplus to $15bn

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-Oct-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has attributed the federal government’s higher-than-forecast budget surplus for 2023-24 to lower spending rather than increased taxes. The final budget outcome for 2023-24 has confirmed a surplus of $15.8bn, which is $9.3bn higher than was forecast in the May budget. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor claims that Labor is using temporary windfalls to boost the budget bottom line, adding that its two successive surpluses will be followed by a series of deficits. The government achieved significant savings by deferring expenditure in a range of areas in 2023-24; meanwhile, personal income tax revenue was $3.1bn lower than expected at $331.5bn and corporate tax receipts were $1.7bn below expectations at $141.2bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Tax bounty brings record $22b surplus

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 22-Sep-23

The federal government will confirm on Friday that the budget surplus for 2022-23 was $22.1bn. This represents a significant turnaround from the $77.9bn deficit that former treasurer Josh Frydenberg had forecast in March 2022. It will also be the first surplus since 2007-08 and the first under a Labor government since Paul Keating was treasurer more than three decades ago. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says Labor has delivered a surplus while providing cost-of-living relief and investing in the long-term growth of the economy. The budget bottom-line was boosted by factors such as high commodity prices and rising income tax revenue due to a strong labour market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Labor hints at further cost respite

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 12-Jul-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government’s bigger-than-expected budget surplus for 2022-23 is in addition to cost-of-living relief than than instead of it. Addressing an event hosted by the Brotherhood of St Laurence in Melbourne on Tuesday night, Chalmers said the surplus of around $20bn will give the government the flexibility to provide further cost-of-living relief if this proves to be necessary, after the 9 May budget included expenditure of $14.6bn on such measures over the forward estimates period. Meanwhile, independent economist Chris Richardson says the recent fall in commodity prices means that a second successive surplus in 2023-24 is now much less certain than on budget night.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BROTHERHOOD OF ST LAURENCE

Surplus bounty pushes tax take past 24pc

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 3-Jul-23

Record revenue from company and personal income taxes has resulted in the federal budget being in surplus by $19bn for the first 11 months of 2022-23, putting it on track for a surplus of around $20bn for the financial year. This compares with Treasury’s forecast of a $4.2bn surplus when the budget was released in early May. Economist Chris Richardson estimates that the tax-to-GDP ratio is currently around 24.2 per cent; it has breached the 24 per cent level for the first time since 2007-08, and Richardson believes that this could become a permanent trend. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has previously stated that he does not feel bound by the former Coalition government’s cap of 23.9 per cent, describing it as "arbitrary".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Fat budget surplus but brace for crunch

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 28-Jun-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is set to announce that the surplus for 2022-23 will be significantly higher than the $4.2bn that was forecast in the budget on 9 May. Chalmers will attribute the better-than-expected budget bottom line to factors such as higher commodity prices and a strong labour market; however, the exact size of the surplus will not be known for several weeks. Chalmers will also advise that the government expects inflation to remain higher for longer than it would like, while economic growth is forecast to slow from 3.25 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2023-24.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Higher spending, deficits keep pressure on rates and taxes

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B1 & B4 : 10-May-23

The budget papers have confirmed that the federal government expects to post a surplus of $4.2bn for 2022-23. Labor’s first budget in October had forecast a deficit of $36.9bn for the current financial year; however, government revenue has increased by $130bn since October, while its interest payments on debt have fallen by $15bn. The government has saved more than 80 per cent of the revenue upgrades since October. Meanwhile, the Treasury has forecast a budget deficit of $13.9bn in 2023-24, and the budget is not expected to return to surplus again until 2033-34. The Treasury expects the domestic economy’s growth to slow to 1.5 per cent in 2024, due to factors such as high interest rates and the slowing global economy. Inflation is turn forecast to fall from seven to six per cent in 2023, before falling to 3.25 per cent in 2024; inflation is not expected return to the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent until 2024-25.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Federal budget could be set for $30b boost: CBA

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 12-Dec-19

The Commonwealth Bank has upgraded its federal Budget surplus forecasts. Chief economist Michael Blythe says the surplus for fiscal 2020 is now likely to be $17.1bn rather than $7.1bn, while the surplus for the following year is set to be $19.1bn rather than $11bn. Blythe adds that factors such as strong jobs growth and the low inflation rate will boost the Budget bottom line by about $30bn over the next four years. He notes that government revenue will also be bolstered by a much higher iron ore rice than was forecast in the April 2019 Budget.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Global risks high, but Fed will avert recession

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 23-Oct-19

Northern Trust’s chief economist Carl Tannenbaum expects the US Federal Reserve to reduce official interest rates in late October. Financial markets anticipate more monetary policy easing, but Tannenbaum says the Federal Reserve will put further rate cuts on hold. He is also confident that interest rate cuts will enable the US economy from going into recession. Tannenbaum has also questioned whether the Australian government should still be focusing on returning the Budget to surplus in an environment of low interest rates and a slowing Chinese economy.

CORPORATES
NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Tax cuts, not surpluses, key to growth

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 5 : 24-Sep-19

Returning the Budget to surplus has been a priority for the federal government since it won office in 2013, and it is on track for a surplus in 2019-20 after posting a deficit of less than $700m for 2018-19. However, documents released under Freedom of Information laws show that the Treasury is of the view that tax cuts may be the best way to stimulate the economy. The Treasury papers note that the government’s income tax cuts package will boost household disposable income by 0.75 per cent over three years, while delaying or reversing future tax cuts would reduce the efficiency of the economy and the tax system.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Income tax cuts, bigger surpluses

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 10-May-19

Labor will release the Parliamentary Budget Office’s costings of its election policies on 10 May. The costings show that Labor is projected to deliver a Budget surplus equivalent to one per cent of GDP in 2022-23. In contrast, the Coalition expects to post a surplus in 2022-23 that is just 0.4 per cent of GDP. Meanwhile, Labor’s proposed tax reforms are slated to raise $154bn over 10 years. The costings also show that a Labor government would deliver total tax cuts over the next decade that are similar to those that have been budgeted by the Coalition.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY