Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 12-Dec-19
The Commonwealth Bank has upgraded its federal Budget surplus forecasts. Chief economist Michael Blythe says the surplus for fiscal 2020 is now likely to be $17.1bn rather than $7.1bn, while the surplus for the following year is set to be $19.1bn rather than $11bn. Blythe adds that factors such as strong jobs growth and the low inflation rate will boost the Budget bottom line by about $30bn over the next four years. He notes that government revenue will also be bolstered by a much higher iron ore rice than was forecast in the April 2019 Budget.
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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 23-Oct-19
Northern Trust’s chief economist Carl Tannenbaum expects the US Federal Reserve to reduce official interest rates in late October. Financial markets anticipate more monetary policy easing, but Tannenbaum says the Federal Reserve will put further rate cuts on hold. He is also confident that interest rate cuts will enable the US economy from going into recession. Tannenbaum has also questioned whether the Australian government should still be focusing on returning the Budget to surplus in an environment of low interest rates and a slowing Chinese economy.
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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 5 : 24-Sep-19
Returning the Budget to surplus has been a priority for the federal government since it won office in 2013, and it is on track for a surplus in 2019-20 after posting a deficit of less than $700m for 2018-19. However, documents released under Freedom of Information laws show that the Treasury is of the view that tax cuts may be the best way to stimulate the economy. The Treasury papers note that the government’s income tax cuts package will boost household disposable income by 0.75 per cent over three years, while delaying or reversing future tax cuts would reduce the efficiency of the economy and the tax system.
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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 10-May-19
Labor will release the Parliamentary Budget Office’s costings of its election policies on 10 May. The costings show that Labor is projected to deliver a Budget surplus equivalent to one per cent of GDP in 2022-23. In contrast, the Coalition expects to post a surplus in 2022-23 that is just 0.4 per cent of GDP. Meanwhile, Labor’s proposed tax reforms are slated to raise $154bn over 10 years. The costings also show that a Labor government would deliver total tax cuts over the next decade that are similar to those that have been budgeted by the Coalition.
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY
Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 10-Jan-19
Fitch Solutions has cast doubt upon the federal government’s timetable for a return to a Budget surplus. The government expects a surplus equivalent to 0.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20, but Fitch has forecast that factors such as slowing economic growth will result in a deficit equivalent to 0.1 per cent of GDP for the financial year. The firm warns that increased government spending and slowing global economic growth will also delay the return to a surplus. Fitch’s forecast of a 2018-19 deficit equivalent to 0.3 per cent of GDP is in line with the government’s projections.
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Original article by Simon Benson, David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 17-Dec-18
The federal government’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook is expected to show that increased company tax revenue and reduced spending will result in a Budget surplus of about $4bn in 2019-20, compared with a previous forecast of $2.2bn. The surplus is expected to total $30bn over the next four years, up from the $15.3bn surplus that had been forecast in the May 2018 Budget. Meanwhile, the deficit for 2018-19 could be just $5bn, down from previous expectations of $14.4bn. The mid-year budget update will be released on 17 December.
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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-May-18
The Federal Government has forecast a modest Budget surplus of $A2.2bn in 2019-20. The Budget had previously been expected to return to surplus in 2020-21, compared with a likely deficit of $A18.2bn in 2017-18. Meanwhile, Australia’s gross debt is now slated to be $A558bn in 2027-28, compared with expectations of $A684bn in the mid-year Budget update in December. Net debt is expected to fall to 3.8 per cent of GDP by 2029, down from a peak of 18.6 per cent in 2017-18.
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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-May-18
The Federal Government’s May 2018 Budget is expected to restrict tax cuts to people with taxable income of less than $A87,000. The tax cuts are likely to be delivered via the low-income tax offset, while Treasurer Scott Morrison has indicated that people on higher incomes are likely to receive tax cuts by 2024. Morrison stresses that the tax cuts in the 2018 Budget will be real and affordable. Meanwhile, the Government will use the Budget to formally adopt a tax-to-GDP ratio of 23.9 per cent, while it is tipped to forecast a modest surplus in 2019-20, which is one year ahead of schedule.
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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-May-18
The Australian Labor Party will raise at least $A160bn in additional revenue over 10 years if it wins the next federal election. This would be boosted by $A35bn if Labor revoked company tax cuts that have yet to be legislated. Labor argues that the additional revenue would allow it to achieve a Budget surplus while increasing government spending in sectors such as health and education. Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has warned that Labor’s tax plan will have an adverse impact on jobs and investment.
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY
Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Dec-17
Treasurer Scott Morrison has downplayed modelling by the Parliamentary Budget Office which suggests that productivity will need to increase in order to ensure that a Budget surplus is sustained. The Federal Government has forecast that it will post surpluses equivalent to 0.3 per cent of GDP from 2020-21, although this is based on expectations that productivity growth will remain at the long-term average of 1.6 per cent. However, growth in productivity has averaged just 1.35 per cent over the last decade, and the PBO’s analysis has found that the Budget will be "broadly balanced" by 2027-28 unless productivity growth improves.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY