BUDGET – VICTORIA

Allan handouts put Vic credit rating at risk

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Original article by Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 21-Apr-26

Victoria’s Premier Jacinta Allan has defended the state government’s decision to extend cost-of-living relief for public transport users. Allan says the government’s strong budget position means it can afford to extend the fare-free period until the end of May, followed by half-price fares for the rest of the year. However, S&P Global Ratings analyst Martin Foo says policies that were initially meant to be temporary can be hard to unwind, and could potentially jeopardise the state’s credit rating.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Victoria turns blind eye to credit downgrade risk

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Original article by Lily McCaffrey
The Australian – Page: 6 : 4-Jun-25

Victoria’s Treasurer Jaclyn Symes will hold meetings with global credit ratings agencies in New York on Friday. Symes has told parliament’s public accounts and estimates committee that there has been no indication from the ratings agencies that Victoria’s credit rating may be subject to an unfavourable review. The issue came under scrutiny earlier in 2025 when S&P Global warned that the government must demonstrate "fiscal discipline" if it hopes to retain the state’s AA/Stable credit rating, which had been downgraded from triple-A in 2020. The Treasury has advised that it has not undertaken any modelling on the impact of a further credit rating downgrade on the state’s budget position.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF TRANSPORT, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Victorian Labor enters debt-and-tax spiral

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Original article by Lily McCaffrey, Damon Johnston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 21-May-25

S&P Global analyst Rebecca Hrvatin has responded to the Victorian government’s 2025 budget by emphasising the need for fiscal discipline, particularly in the lead-up to the state election in November 2026. The budget papers show that Victoria’s net debt is forecast to rise from about $155bn at present to $194bn in 2028-29, while the state’s annual interest bill will top $10.5bn by that date. The state’s wages bill is in turn expected to blow out to $42bn in 2028-29, despite plans to shed about 1,200 full-time equivalent public sector jobs. Meanwhile, tax revenue is expected to rise to about $48bn in 2028-29, compared with $36.8bn in 2023-24; this is despite the absence of any new taxes in the budget.

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S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Victoria’s debt levies haul in far more than expected

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Original article by Patrick Durkin, Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 13-Nov-24

The Victorian government’s budget update shows that the state’s net debt is slated to top $188bn by 2027-28. The update also reveals that the government’s Covid debt levies are expected to raise $529m more over four years than had been forecast in the 2023 budget. The levy on businesses with payrolls exceeding $10m had been expected to raise $3.9bn over four years, and the levy on property investors was slated to raise $4.7bn. Meanwhile, the government’s employee expenses rose by 7.94 per cent to $15.48bn in 2023-24.

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Vic ratings warning over debt

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Original article by Gus McCubbing, Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 8-May-24

The Victorian government’s budget papers show that it expects to post an operating surplus of $1.5bn in 2025-26. However, the state’s net debt is forecast to rise from $156.2bn in mid-2025 to $187.8bn by 2028. S&P Global Ratings analyst Anthony Walker says the firm expects Victoria’s gross debt as a proportion of revenue to rise above 200 per cent of operating revenue. He warns that the state’s credit rating could be downgraded again if its debt rises to 240 per cent of operating revenue or interest payments rise to 10 per cent of operating revenue. Meanwhile, interest payments on the state’s debt will rise from $6.5bn in 2024-25 to $9.4bn by 2028, and interest as a share of revenue is forecast to rise from 6.3 per cent to 8.8 per cent.

CORPORATES
S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Land tax changes won’t drive up rents: Andrews

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Original article by Broede Carmody, Rachel Eddie, Jim Malo
The Age – Page: Online : 25-May-23

The Victorian government continues to attract scrutiny over the Covid debt reduction measures in its 23 May budget, which include a land tax on residential investment properties. Premier Daniel Andrews contends that landlords will not seek to recoup the cost of the new tax by increasing their rent charges, although the Centre for Independent Studies’ chief economist Peter Tulip argues that many landlords have relatively thin margins and will need to increase their rents. Treasurer Tim Pallas has indicated that the state government may consider options such as capping rent increases, although he has ruled out a rent freeze. Family homes will be exempt from the land tax.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED

Heavy price as cash crisis crushes Victoria

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Original article by Shannon Deery
Herald Sun – Page: 7 : 24-May-23

Victoria’s Treasurer Tim Pallas says the Covid debt levies announced in the state’s 2023 budget are temporary, targeted and responsible. Victorians who own holiday homes and investment properties will pay a new land tax which is expected to raise around $4.7bn over the forward estimates period and will remain in place for a decade. There are fears that the levy will worsen the housing crisis by pushing up rents and deterring investment in the rental market. The government also expects to raise $3.9bn via a new payroll tax levy on businesses with a wages bills of more than $10m. The state’s own wages bill is forecast to rise by $5bn over the next four years, despite plans to shed up to 4,000 public sector jobs. Opposition leader John Pesutto says the budget is mean and nasty, adding that it shows that Victoria is broke.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA

Victorian budget a risk to recovery

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 21-May-21

The Victorian government’s May 2021 Budget shows that the state’s net debt will blow out to $156.3bn by mid-2025. However, the government has confirmed that the state’s deficit for 2020-21 will be much lower than previously forecast, at $17.4bn. The key measure announced in the Budget is a payroll tax surcharge of 0.5 per cent on businesses with a wages bill of more than $10m; this will rise to one per cent for businesses with wages costs of more than $100m. The surcharge is slated to raise $387m in 2021-22 and about $3bn over four years, with the proceeds to be used to finance a $3.8bn mental health package. The levy has been criticised by business leaders and federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who warn that it will cost jobs and undermine the national economy’s recovery from the pandemic.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$32bn debt binge funds pledges

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Original article by Rebecca Urban
The Australian – Page: 6 : 28-May-19

The Victorian Government’s May 2019 Budget has forecast a surplus of $1bn in 2019-20, rising to $1.5bn in the following financial year. State debt is projected to rise by $32.1bn over the forward estimates period, topping $54.9bn in 2022-23. The increased debt will be used to finance infrastructure projects, with expenditure on infrastructure to average $13.4bn a year over the forward estimates. Meanwhile, the government has scaled back its forecasts for growth in employment and gross state product over the next three years.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

State embarks on a dazzling spending binge

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Original article by Patrick Durkin, Ben Potter
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 2-May-18

The Victorian Government’s May 2018 Budget has forecast a surplus of $A1.4bn in 2018-19, amid expectations that revenue will rise by almost nine per cent. The Government has attributed the strong Budget outlook to factors such as rising stamp duty and payroll tax revenue, the state’s economic growth and an increase in its share of GST revenue. The Government has also announced that it will invest $A13.7bn in infrastructure projects, including hospitals, schools and roads.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, SNOWY HYDRO LIMITED, MELBOURNE AIRPORT, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET