BUSINESS – AUSTRALIA

Business Confidence down in December to 114.1 (down 2.2%) after negative Australian GDP figures released

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 2.2% to 114.1 in December 2016. The fall in Business Confidence occurred even as the Australian All Ordinaries rose during December – mirroring strong rises in US indices following the victory of Donald Trump in the Presidential Election. The All Ordinaries ended 2016 at 5,719.1 (up 216.7pts (+3.9%) from November 30). This month’s fall in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now below the 6-year average (116.6) but still above the final ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for 2016 of 113.4. Businesses are less confident about their prospects over the year ahead, with net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months down 3.3ppts to 27pts in December, and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" now 18.2pts (down 2.3ppts).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research comments on the fall in Business Confidence in December

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Business Confidence fell slightly in December after three straight months of increases – down 2.6pts (-2.2%) to 114.1. The fall in Business Confidence came after Donald Trump secured an unexpected victory in the US Presidential Election in November while in early December the ABS announced Australia’s GDP had decreased 0.5% in the September quarter – the first contraction in Australian GDP for over five years. Both Australia and the US face a continuing problem of high real unemployment and under-employment: In the US (over 20% according to President-elect Trump); and in Australia the latest Roy Morgan November employment estimates show Australian real unemployment of 1.199 million (9.2%) and under-employment of 1.1 million (8.4%). These figures show that the Reserve Bank of Australia should still be cutting Australian interest rates in 2017 (now at 1.50%) rather than thinking about raising them.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Commodity prices surged 40pc in 2016

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Original article by Geoff Winestock
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Jan-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s commodity price index rose 84 per cent in Australian dollar terms in 2016. Manufacturing is also in good shape, with the Australian Industry Group’s performance of manufacturing index being at 55.4 per cent in December 2016. In agriculture, prices declined about five per cent in 2016.

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THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s comment on the rise in Roy Morgan November Business Confidence

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-16

Business Confidence increased for the third straight month, up by 0.5pts (+0.4%) in November to 116.7. This is the highest Business Confidence has been since the Federal Election in July when the Turnbull Government was returned with a majority of only one seat. Analysing the movement of Business Confidence across the States in November shows a strong increase in Queensland being the main driver of this month’s increase – now clearly above the national average along with a slight improvement in Victoria while Tasmania continues to have the highest Business Confidence of any State. In contrast Business Confidence is virtually unchanged in Australia’s largest State of New South Wales and is down significantly in the mining State of Western Australia – now clearly the lowest of any State. Business Confidence in South Australia also fell for the second straight month following the State’s widespread blackout in late September and is now in line with the national average. In terms of industries, the most confident industries in November were the Retail trade industry heading into the most important time of the year over the Christmas-New Year’s sales period, Accommodation and food services which also traditionally benefits from the Summer holiday period and Public administration, safety and security – all of these industries were more than 10% above the national average.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business Confidence up slightly in November to 116.7 (up 0.4%); highest since Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence rose 0.4% to 116.7 in November 2016. The small rise in Business Confidence occurred as the Australian All Ordinaries ended November at 5,502.4 (up 100.0pts from October 31). This month’s small rise in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now just above the 6-year average (116.6) and above the current ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating of 115.4. Businesses are increasingly confident about their prospects over the year ahead, with net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months up 10.3ppts to 30.3pts in November and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" now 20.5pts (up 2.3ppts).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s comment on the rise in Roy Morgan October Business Confidence

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-16

Business Confidence increased for the second straight month, up by 1.3pts (+1.1%) in October to 116.2 – the highest Business Confidence has been since the Federal Election in July. The most confident industries in October were the primary industries of Agriculture, forestry and fishing, Mining – which has significantly recovered from lows earlier in 2016, Education and training, Accommodation and Rental, hiring and real estate services – all significantly above the national average. Industries lagging in confidence in October include Transport, postal and warehousing, Arts and recreational services, Personal, repair and other services and the utilities of Electricity, gas, water and waste. It is no surprise to see lower business confidence in the Electricity industry given the problems with the South Australian power system and the well-anticipated recent decision to close Victoria’s Hazelwood power stations (responsible for up to 25% of Victorian baseload energy demand).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business Confidence up slightly in October to 116.2 (up 1.1%) on the back of renewed strength in primary industries Agriculture & Mining

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence rose 1.1% to 116.2 in October 2016. The small rise in Business Confidence occurred even though the Australian All Ordinaries fell during October – the All Ordinaries ended October at 5,402.40 (down 122.8pts from September 30). However, this fall was concentrated in the last week of the month (the All Ordinaries lost 120.9pts between October 25-31) and has fallen further in early November – now at 5,330.9 (November 7). This month’s small rise in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now just below the 6yr average (116.6) and slightly below the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence October rating of 118.5.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence slumps in August – down 6.5% to 108.6 after interest rate cut; lowest since Turnbull became PM

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Sep-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 6.5% to 108.6 in August. The fall in Business Confidence comes after the RBA cut interest rates to a record low 1.5% in early August. The fall in Business Confidence was far larger than the small fall of the Australian All Ordinaries in August – the All Ordinaries ended August at 5,529 (down 2.0% (or 115pts) from July 31, 2016, 5,644) although the All Ordinaries has fallen further in September – now at 5,324 as of September 12. The fall in Business Confidence in August means Business Confidence has dipped below the 6yr average of 116.6.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Gary Morgan’s comment on Roy Morgan July Business Confidence

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-16

Although the result in the House of Representatives at the recent Federal Election was disappointing, the result in the Senate is probably better for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. The increase in the cross-bench at first appears challenging for the Turnbull Government; however, the fact is that most of the new Senators are right-of-centre and likely to be favourable to the Government’s broader Budget and policy agenda. Two of the most important policies the Government took to the election were significant corporate tax cuts and the re-introduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) to improve workplace productivity in the Construction industry. Despite the challenges, the Government should be able to pass these important reforms which will stimulate an Australian economy still dealing with the end of the mining boom.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business Confidence lower in July – down 2.8% to 116.1 during month of political uncertainty

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 2.8% to 116.1 in July 2016 following the inconclusive Australian Federal Election at the start of July. The fall in Business Confidence comes despite an upward trend on the Australian sharemarket in July – the All Ordinaries closed the end of July at 5,644 (up 6.3% (or 334pts) from June 30, 5310). This was the highest close for exactly a year since July 31, 2015 (5,681). The fall in Business Confidence in July means Business Confidence has dipped just below the 6yr average of 116.7.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED