Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-23

In November 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 85.8 (down 4.6pts since October). Business Confidence has now spent a record 10 consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 25.5pts below the long-term average of 111.3. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 61% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 37.1% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 27.0% that say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 10.1% points and still the only index in positive territory. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for November are based on 1,519 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-23

In October 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.4 (up 3.3pts since September). Business Confidence has now spent a record nine consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back over a decade to 2010. Business Confidence is now 21.1pts below the long-term average of 111. A majority of businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 56.5% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year, while 58.2% expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year, with 40.1% saying they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 29.2% that say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 10.9% points and the only index in positive territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Oct-23

In September 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 87.1 (down 7.6pts since August). This is the lowest Business Confidence since September 2020, when Victoria was in an extended lockdown and New South Wales was enduring significant COVID-19 outbreaks. The Business Confidence survey was conducted after the RBA left interest rates unchanged for a third straight month in September at 4.1%. However, there were renewed concerns about inflation during September, with average retail petrol prices hitting a record high. Business Confidence has now spent eight consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory since October 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. A majority of businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 55.2% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 63.1% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 38.3% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 30.5% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 7.8% points and the only index in positive territory. The pressure that high inflation and rising interest rates are placing on consumer spending habits is clear when one considers the Retail industry has the lowest Business Confidence of all at only 43.6, and more than halving from a year ago, down 44.1pts (-50.3%) from a year ago. This is an all-time record low reading of Business Confidence for the Retail industry heading into the most important retailing period of the year. The just released ARA-Roy Morgan pre-Christmas forecasts predict total pre-Christmas retail sales of $78 billion (up 0.4% on a year ago), and a seasonally adjusted figure of $66.8 billion.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-23

In May 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.3 (up 0.1pts since April). The Business Confidence survey was conducted after Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered the Federal Government’s Budget in early May, but before the RBA raised interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1%. Business Confidence has now spent four consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory since October 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Business Confidence is now 21.9pts below the long-term average of 112.2. Now 40.2% (up 1.5ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 25.1% (down 2.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 46.3% (up 5.8ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 47% (down 4.7ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’. However, only 38% (up 0.6ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 61.2% (up 1.1ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

In April 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.2 (down 3.4pts since March), before the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week to 3.85%. Business Confidence has returned to its level of November 2022 (90.2), when official interest rates were at 2.85%; there have since been four interest rate increases, totalling 1% points. Business Confidence is now 22.1pts below the long-term average of 112.3. Now 38.7% (down 3.1ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.7% (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 40.5% (down 5.6ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 51.7% (up 6.5ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’. Only 37.4% (down 1.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 60.1% (down 0.2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Apr-23

In March 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 93.6 (down 2.2pts since February), after the RBA raised interest rates for a record tenth consecutive meeting in March but before it left the cash rate unchanged in April. The fall in Business Confidence in March was the second consecutive fall after a new year’s boost in January, although the index remains below the recent low of 90.2 reached in November 2022. Business Confidence is also 18.9pts below the long-term average of 112.5. Now 41.8% of businesses (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.1% (down 1ppt) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 46.1% (down 0.4ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 45.2% (down 1ppt) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Mar-23

In February 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 95.8 (down 10.6pts since January) after the RBA raised interest rates for a ninth consecutive meeting in early February. The fall in Business Confidence in February reversed the increase of 10.4pts in January, and Business Confidence is now 16.8pts below the long-term average of 112.6. Now just 39.1% (down 10.2ppts of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 59.3% (up 11.1ppts) expect bad times’. Some 41.2% (down 5.5ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since the early stages of the pandemic in March 2020) while 28.1% (up 7.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since in March 2020). Meanwhile, 46.5% (down 1.8ppts) of businesses say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 46.2% (up 2.5ppts) said it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Feb-23

In January 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 10.4 points to 106.4, the largest jump to start a new year since the index began in 2010. The increase to Business Confidence in January came before the RBA’s decision to increase interest rates for a ninth consecutive meeting, to the highest level since mid-2012. However, Business Confidence is 6.3pts below the long-term average of 112.7. Now 49.3% (up 10.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 48.2% (down 10.5ppts) expect bad times’. Some 46.7% (down 0.6ppts) of businssses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.8% (down 2.5ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 48.3% (up 8.7ppts) of businesses say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 43.7% (down 7.5ppts) said it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jan-23

In December 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 5.8 points to 96.0, largely recovering from the 6.4 point decline in November. The increase in Business Confidence came despite the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates for an eighth straight month in early December. However, Business Confidence is 16.8pts below the long-term average of 112.8. Now 39.2% (up 5.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 39.4% (up 5.9ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years. Meanwhile, 58.7% of businesses expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year, and 54.5% expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years.’ Some 47.3% (up 2.6ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 39.6% (down 3.5ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED