BUSINESS FORECASTING

BHP sees resilient iron ore demand as China slows

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Original article by Mark Wembridge
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 22-Oct-25

BHP has advised that its Pilbara iron ore production totalled 64 million tonnes in the September quarter, which is one per cent lower than the same period in 2024. The lower output has been attributed to repair work at its Port Hedland infrastructure, but BHP says it is still on track to achieve its full-year production guidance of between 258 million tonnes and 269 million tonnes for 2025-26. BHP expects global demand for iron ore to remain strong, despite expectations of slowing growth in China and the ongoing but yet-to-be confirmed reports that China has banned BHP’s iron ore imports. BHP’s copper production rose by four per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

Bitcoin emerges from bear market as traders tip $US125K

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-25

The price of bitcoin rose by 12 per cent last week, compared with a 6.7 per cent gain for the Nasdaq. The cryptocurrency recorded its largest weekly rise since shortly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November. It subsequently peaked at around $US109,000 following his inauguration in late January, before falling sharply in response to the tariffs-induced trade war. Tony Sycamore from IG believes that bitcoin could test its record level again, adding that there is potential for it to rise to around $US125,000.

CORPORATES
IG MARKETS LIMITED, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX

Conservative commodity price forecasts offer revenue windfall

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that the Treasury is continuing to adopt a conservative approach to commodity price forecasts. The budget’s revenue forecasts are based on expectations that the iron ore price will fall to $US60 per tonne at port by the end of March 2026; the price of the steel input is currently trading at around $US100 per tonne. UBS recently forecast that the iron ore price will remain within a range of $US90 to $US100/tonne for the next five years. The Treasury’s forecasts for other key commodities such as coal and LNG are also significantly below current prices.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Supply glut could slash iron ore price

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 21-Jan-25

The iron ore price recently peaked at over $US104 per tonne, in response to data showing that there has been strong growth in China’s stockpiles of the steel input. Goldman Sachs expects a further sharp increase in stockpiles at Chinese ports over the next two years. The firm says this will weigh on the iron ore price, forecasting that it will fall to $US95/tonne this year and $US90 in 2026. Westpac is more bearish, forecasting that iron ore could potentially fall to around $US70 in 2025 as Rio Tinto boosts global supply.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Exporters brace for LNG new wave

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 8-Jan-25

Global supply of LNG is expected to ramp up in 2025, which is likely to weigh on local producers and the federal government’s revenue. The increase in production had been slated to occur in 2024, but delays to a number of LNG projects resulted in this being pushed back to 2025. Meanwhile, EnergyQuest notes that global output of LNG is expected to rise by about 50 million tonnes per annum from 2026, while Saul Kavonic from MST Marquee says there is likely to be a global oversupply of LNG beyond 2026.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, MST MARQUEE

Green transition tailwind at our backs: Rio and BHP

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Original article by Cameron England
The Australian – Page: 20 : 2-Oct-24

Rio Tinto Jakob Stausholm says the energy transition is at the heart of the resources group’s strategy. He has used a London Metals Exchange speech to argue that while the transition to net zero emissions is underway, it is not occurring quickly enough; he adds that the energy transition will significantly boost demand for the minerals that Rio Tinto produces, including copper, aluminium, lithium and high-grade iron ore for ‘green’ steel. Meanwhile, BHP has forecast that the energy transition will boost global demand for copper.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE LIMITED

CBA warns of $US80 iron ore price as China crisis deepens

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 18-Sep-24

Iron ore futures were trading at around $US92.50 per tonne on Tuesday, after falling below $US90 last week. The iron ore price has shed about 20 per cent since July, amid a rising global surplus of the steel input and growing concerns about the outlook for China’s property sector. Goldman Sachs now expects the iron ore price to test the $US85/tonne level in the December quarter, compared with its previous forecast of $US100. Meanwhile, Vivak Dhar from the Commonwealth Bank says the iron ore price could potentially fall to around $US80/tonne in the near-term.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Steel carnage to sink iron ore below $US90

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 13-Aug-24

The iron ore price is now about 30 per cent below its January peak, although the steel input is still trading at around $US100 per tonne. However, Robert Rennie of Westpac contends that problems within the steel industry means that the iron ore price should be around the mid-to late-$US80 level at present. He says it is only a matter of time before the "absolute carnage" in the steel industry is reflected in the iron ore price. Chinese steel mills’ margins have fallen sharply, and a MySteel survey has found that just five per cent of them were profitable last week. Further production cuts may be looming, which would dampen demand for iron ore.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED

Sagging iron ore prices weigh on local bourse

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 23 : 13-Jun-24

The iron ore price reached a two-month low of $US103.35 per tonne earlier this week, weighing on the Australian sharemarket and the nation’s largest mining companies. Vivek Dhar from the Commonwealth Bank says the downturn in the iron ore price is probably due to ongoing concerns about China’s property market, despite recent government stimulus measures. Dhar believes that the iron on price will not rise sustainably above $US110 per tonne unless the Chinese government pursues additional infrastructure stimulus measures.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Citi tips iron ore to reach $US150 on China hopes

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 30-Jan-24

Iron ore futures traded in Singapore rose to $US136 a tonne after the People’s Bank of China announced plans to inject more liquidity into the financial system. There have also been reports that the Chinese government may consider measures to stabilise the nation’s sharemarket. Citigroup has in turn maintained its forecast for the price of iron ore to reach $US150/tonne over the next three months. The firm has also upgraded its copper price forecast to $US8,800 per tonne.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA