BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Gold beats coal as iron ore drives export record

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 19-Dec-19

The Department of Industry, Innovation & Science now expects Australia’s resources exports to top $281bn in 2019-20. This is $4bn lower than was forecast in June, although it will still be a new record. Resources exports are forecast to fall to around $256bn in 2020-21, due to factors such as an expected fall in the iron ore price and the resumption of shipments from Brazil. This will see Australia’s iron ore exports fall to $65.5bn in 2020-21, compared with expectations of $84bn in the current financial year. Gold exports are tipped to reach a new high of $27.8bn in 2019-20, before falling to $25.9bn in 2020-21.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Dollar’s fall lifts retailers’ spirits

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 21 : 10-Dec-14

The latest Deloitte Access Economics retail forecasts study shows that the sector can expect higher margins during the 2014 Christmas period, due to the fall of the Australian dollar against the US currency. The overall sales growth figure for the calendar year is tipped to be 5.4%, compared with 3% on average per annum since 2010. The Australian National Retailers Association (ANRA) also forecasts turnover in the second week of December to reach $A7.6bn. However ANRA CEO Anna McPhee notes that retail sector margins have declined in the past three years

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL RETAILERS ASSOCIATION LIMITED, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Robots to take 500,000 jobs

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 10-Dec-14

The Department of Industry’s "Australian Industry Report 2014" suggests that many white-collar jobs that involve routine tasks could automated in coming years. These include roles such as accountants, bank tellers, supermarket cashiers and pharmacists. Some 78.6 per cent of people in roles that are risk from automation hold a university degree. A report in 2013 found that around 47 per cent of jobs in the US could potentially be replaced by automation

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, OXFORD UNIVERSITY. OXFORD MARTIN SCHOOL

Mega super funds to dominate economy

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 13 & 15 : 16-Dec-19

Rice Warner forecasts that Australia’s superannuation industry will have $7trn worth of assets under management by 2034, compared with $2.7trn at present. The firm also expects the sector to eventually be dominated by a handful of ‘megafunds’. Rice Warner forecasts that there will be at least nine super funds with assets exceeding $100bn within five years, and at least 12 funds with more than $200bn worth of assets by 2034. AustralianSuper’s assets are expected to rise from $150bn to $325bn over the next five years.

CORPORATES
RICE WARNER ACTUARIES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, CONSTRUCTION AND BUILDING UNIONS’ SUPERANNUATION FUND, HOST-PLUS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN TRANSACTION REPORTS AND ANALYSIS CENTRE, QSUPER LIMITED, SUNSUPER PTY LTD, AMP SUPERANNUATION LIMITED, VICSUPER PTY LTD, FIRST STATE SUPER, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNISUPER LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BT FINANCIAL GROUP PTY LTD, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, ONEPATH AUSTRALIA LIMITED

2020 visions: big calls for new year

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 & 31 : 9-Dec-19

The CEOs of Australian media, digital media and advertising groups have shared their views on the outlook for their company in 2020 and the media sector in general. Bauer Media Australia CEO Brendon Hill says the deal to acquire Pacific Magazines will increase the publisher’s stability and allow it to increase its focus on the creation of compelling branded content, while Foxtel CEO Patrick Delaney says the pay-TV group’s large customer base will be its biggest advantage in 2020. Southern Cross Media Group CEO Grant Blackley says factors such as weak consumer sentiment and its flow-on effect on the advertising market will be the biggest challenge facing his company in 2020.

CORPORATES
BAUER MEDIA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY MEDIA, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, OOH!MEDIA LIMITED – ASX OML, CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CAR, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, HT&E LIMITED – ASX HT1, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, GOOGLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FACEBOOK AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TWITTER AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, FETCHTV PTY LTD, JC DECAUX AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Whitehaven takes hit on drought and fires

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 6-Dec-19

Whitehaven Coal has advised that output at its Maules Creek mine in 2019-20 will be 7-10 per cent lower than previously forecast. The company has indicated that factors such as smoke from the New South Wales bushfires has disrupted work at the mine. Whitehaven also said the mine’s production has been affected by a shortage of skilled workers. Environmental activists have suggested that the downgrade is linked to climate change.

CORPORATES
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, AUSTRALASIAN CENTRE FOR CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY, AUSTRALIAN CONSERVATION FOUNDATION INCORPORATED, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, GLENCORE PLC, AURELIA METALS LIMITED – ASX AMI

MinRes to keep lithium mine running

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Nov-19

Mineral Resources has advised that output at its Mount Marion mine in Western Australia is still expected to be within the range of 360,000 to 380,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate in 2019-20, at an average cost of nearly $600 a tonne. CEO Chris Ellison has told the group’s annual meeting that concentrate grading six per cent lithium has fetched around $US600 ($879) per tonne in recent months, after averaging $1,182/tonne in 2018-19. He added that Mineral Resources’ earnings are currently being driven by its iron ore and mining services operations.

CORPORATES
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, ALBERMARLE CORPORATION, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX PLS, ALITA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX A40, GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GXY, ALTURA MINING LIMITED – ASX AJM

Regulate digital platforms: Seven

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Original article by Zoe Samios
The Australian – Page: 19 : 14-Nov-19

Seven West Media expects the metropolitan TV market to record single-digit growth in advertising revenue in 2019-20. CEO James Warburton has told the group’s annual meeting that the advertising market is likely to remain weak during the December quarter, noting that Seven’s revenue share was 39 per cent in the first quarter. Meanwhile, chairman Kerry Stokes has called for greater regulation of digital giants such as Google and Facebook, including the implementation of all recommendations arising from the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission’s inquiry into digital platforms.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, PACIFIC MAGAZINES PTY LTD, REDWAVE MEDIA LIMITED

Nine feels squeeze of ad market

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Original article by Lilly Vitorovich
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 13-Nov-19

Nine Entertainment Company has downgraded its underlying earnings growth forecast for 2019-20 due to challenging conditions in the advertising market. CEO Hugh Marks has told the group’s AGM that there was a 6.4 per cent decline in the metropolitan free-to-air TV advertising market in the first quarter, and the outlook has not improved in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Nine chairman Peter Costello has called for digital platforms to be subject to the same regulations as traditional media companies.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, MACQUARIE MEDIA LIMITED – ASX MRN, 2GB, RADIO 4BC BRISBANE PTY LTD, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, WALT DISNEY COMPANY

Drought may force mines to shut down

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 11-Nov-19

Aeris Resources has warned that lack of sufficient water supply may force the closure of its Tritton copper mine in New South Wales. Aeris has advised that the mine may not have enough water to keep operating beyond February, and it will seek state government approval to access the Nyngan to Cobar pipeline. Aurelia Metals has also indicated that the drought in NSW may result in the loss of its Peak gold and base metals mine’s entire water allocation in early 2020. The mining sector is a major employer in the state’s Cobar region.

CORPORATES
AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX AIS, AURELIA METALS LIMITED – ASX AMI, GLENCORE PLC, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, COBAR SHIRE COUNCIL, AUSTRALIA. BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY