BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Aussie to drop materially in 2025, CBA warns

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 4-Dec-24

The Commonwealth Bank is bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar in 2025, amid fears of a trade war when US president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. The currency has fallen by 7.3 per cent since its most recent peak in September; it was fetching $US0.6470 on Tuesday, having reached a low of $US0.6432 last week. The Commonwealth Bank now expects the currency to fall to $US0.61 by September, but head of international equities Joseph Capurso says it could fall much further and faster if the trade war is more disruptive than anticipated.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

US election may hurt dealmakers

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 15 : 6-Nov-24

Mergers and acquisitions lawyer Sandy Mak from Corrs Chambers Westgarth says it is "hard to predict" just how the outcome of the presidential election will affect US investment in Australia and other countries. US companies are one of the largest foreign investors in Australia, and Mak says they could put plans to invest in Australia on hold if the election results in geopolitical uncertainty; she notes that corporate America has historically been wary of investing offshore in times of volatility and uncertainty.

CORPORATES
CORRS CHAMBERS WESTGARTH

Weak conditions to put a dampener on dividends

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 11-Sep-24

Australian-listed companies paid out more than $80bn worth of dividends in 2023-24, which is five per cent higher than the previous financial year. However, Ryan Felsman from CommSec warns that shareholders should expect lower dividend payouts in 2023-24. He says that energy, consumer discretionary and real estate stocks in particular are likely to deliver lower dividends in the current fiscal year. A report from CommSec has concluded that despite some headwinds, returns on Australian shares are still attractive compared with alternatives such as bank deposits, bonds and international equities.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Streaming ad revenue set to eclipse TV

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Original article by Kylar Loussikian
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 30-Jul-24

A report from PwC notes that revenue across Australia’s media industry has risen to $62.3bn in the last year, although growth in revenue slowed from 6.6 per cent to just 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, PwC estimates that digital revenue now accounts for 70 per cent of advertising spending in the media sector, compared with 54 per cent in 2019; the firm has also forecast that this will increase to 79 per cent by 2028. PwC in turn expects advertising revenues from traditional TV broadcasts to fall to around $3.5bn by 2028, while revenue from subscription and ‘catch-up’ services is forecast to rise to a similar level within four years.

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD

Investors brace for bruising earnings season

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Original article by Sarah Jones
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 30-Jul-24

Factors such as the cost-of-living crisis and high interest rates are expected to weigh on the August corporate reporting season. Macquarie has forecast a six per cent decline in earnings across the market for 2023-24, although the broker anticipates earnings growth of 10 per cent in 2024-25. Jun Bei Liu from Tribeca Investment Partners in turn expects the earnings season to be one of the softest in recent times, stating that revenue and margins are likely to have remained under pressure due to factors such as high labour costs and slowing economic growth.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD

Aussie Broadband’s budget Buddy chases lost customers

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Original article by Jenny Wiggins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 19 : 16-Jul-24

Shares in Aussie Broadband fell by 14 per cent to trade at $3.06 on Monday after the telco announced that its 2024-25 financial year earnings would be between $125 million and $135 million, some $10 million less than its previous forecast. Aussie Broadband launched a new cheap internet brand called Buddy Telco on Monday, with group MD Phillip Britt hoping it will win back some of the customers it has lost to rival Superloop after Aussie Broadband lost a wholesale contract with Origin Energy to Superloop.

CORPORATES
AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED – ASX ABB, SUPERLOOP LIMITED – ASX SLC, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG

Analysts warn on bank growth

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 19 : 9-Jul-24

The share prices of Australia’s big four banks have risen strongly over the past 12 months, but Macquarie analysts have warned that the earnings outlook for the Commonwealth Bank, the ANZ, Westpac and the National Australia is weak. They note that the likelihood of there being a softer landing for the broader economy has diminished, and that extremely low impairment charges will hinder their earnings recovery in the medium term; Macquarie is underweight the banking sector over that period.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Network 10 is in total turmoil and may not survive as Australia’s third commercial broadcaster

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Original article by Shannon Molloy
News.com.au – Page: Online : 8-May-24

Professor Amanda Lotz from the Queensland University of Technology believes that one of Australia’s three commercial free-to-air TV networks will not survive until the end of this decade. She says the sector is in a "death spiral" and it possible that just one network will be viable in the long-term. The three networks had combined advertising revenue of $7.7bn in 2006, but this had fallen to $3.8bn in 2020-21. The Ten Network’s future in particular is uncertain, given that it may not be very appealing to potential buyers of parent company Paramount Global. Media commentator James Manning says a private equity firm seeking a "bargain buy" might be the most likely buyer of Ten.

CORPORATES
TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED, PARAMOUNT GLOBAL, QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

Fortescue confident on export guidance

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 16 : 25-Apr-24

Pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue has advised that its shipments from the Pilbara totalled 43.3 million tonnes in the March quarter. This was 11 per cent lower than the December quarter and down six per cent year-on-year. The lower export volumes have been attributed to the impact of a haulage train derailment during the quarter. Fortescue has conceded that full-year shipments are likely to be at the lower end of its guidance of 192-197 million tonnes. Fortescue shipped just 138.5 million tonnes in the first half of 2023-24, which will require it to ship 53.5 million tonnes in the final quarter. Meanwhile, Fortescue has further downgraded its forecast for shipments from the Iron Bridge magnetite project.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE LIMITED – ASX FMG

Big mining dividends to drop on price slump

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 4-Apr-24

The 2023-24 interim dividends of iron ore majors Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue exceeded expectations. However, the price of the steel input has shed more than 20 per cent so far in 2024, and Morgan Stanley has warned that payouts from the big miners are likely to fall. The firm notes that BHP’s dividend payout is most at risk, citing factors such as the resources group’s debt position and the potential costs arising from legal action over the Samarco dam disaster in Brazil. Morgan Stanley says Rio Tinto is its top pick in the iron ore sector, while it has an ‘equal weight’ rating on BHP and an ‘underweight’ rating on Fortescue.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE LIMITED – ASX FMG, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED