BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Netflix leads as streamers take down pay TV

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 8-Aug-17

Telsyte estimates that the number of paid streaming video subscriptions in Australia totalled 3.7 million in June 2017, and it is expected to top 3.8 million by mid-2018. This includes the Foxtel Now streaming service, while the total number of traditional pay-TV subscriptions is 3.3 million. The Telsyte analysis shows that Netflix boasts a 55 per cent share of the streaming video market, ahead of Stan with 24 per cent. Telsyte MD Foad Fadaghi says a number of factors are contributing to the uptake of streaming services.

CORPORATES
TELSYTE PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, FOXTEL NOW, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, CRICKET AUSTRALIA, ULTIMATE FIGHTING CHAMPIONSHIP, NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS

CBA tipped to grind out $9.8b profit

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 8-Aug-17

Analysts expect the Commonwealth Bank of Australia to post a cash profit of $A4.9bn for the second half of 2016-17, an increase of 5.8 per cent, and a full-year cash profit of $A9.8bn. The banking major’s provision for bad and doubtful debts is likely to remain largely unchanged, while its net interest margin is tipped to have declined by two basis points in the second half. CBA’s earnings guidance is likely to come under scrutiny in the wake of its money-laundering scandal, while the bank is forecast to increase its dividend for the second half to $A2.24 per share.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN

Exxon’s Dory could ease east coast gas shortage

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 8-Aug-17

Saul Kavonic of Wood Mackenzie says the Dory gas discovery in Bass Strait could potentially relieve pressure on east coast gas supplies in the long-term. However, he adds that this assumes that the contingent resource estimate of 2.2 trillion cubic feet is proven by further exploration work. Kavonic also notes that no major production at Dory would be likely until at least 2023. ExxonMobil acquired the Dory gas field from Liberty Petroleum earlier in 2017.

CORPORATES
EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, LIBERTY PETROLEUM, WOOD MACKENZIE, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, APACHE CORPORATION

Rio could return up to $13.2b to shareholders over next 18 months

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Aug-17

Rio Tinto shareholders will receive a full-year dividend of $US2.60 per share for calendar 2017, after the interim dividend was increased from $US0.45 to $US1.10 per share. The resources giant will also repurchase up to $US1bn worth of its London-listed shares, and Paul Young of Deutsche Bank says it has the capacity to undertake about $US2bn worth of buybacks annually from 2018. Meanwhile, CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques says Rio Tinto will only consider acquisitions that add value for shareholders.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, COAL AND ALLIED INDUSTRIES LIMITED, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, IRON ORE COMPANY OF CANADA

The sharemarket is not working as capital provider: Credit Suisse

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 3-Aug-17

Annual net equity issuance via the Australian sharemarket has averaged $A40bn over the last 10 years. However, Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse estimates that just $A1bn has been raised so far in 2017, saying contributing factors include the limited number of IPOs and access to corporate debt at interest rates of around three per cent. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse has identified BHP Billiton, Qantas and Lend Lease as being among the companies that could potentially announce share buybacks during the August reporting season.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, ZIP INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA, CRAVEABLE BRANDS LIMITED, ACCOLADE WINES LIMITED, SUPER A-MART PTY LTD, ALINTA ENERGY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, OFFICEWORKS SUPERSTORES PTY LTD, CHOW TAI FOOK ENTERPRISES LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED

ANZ restructure raises union fears of significant job losses

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman, James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 1-Aug-17

ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott will emphasis on 1 August 2017 via a video to all staff that its Australasian focus is on retail customers and on corporate customers in Asia. The video will follow on from a message sent by Elliott on the previous day in which he called for changes to ANZ’s work practices and flexibility. Julia Angrisano of the Finance Sector Union says it is concerned that what appears to be a major reorganisation by ANZ will lead to job cuts at the bank.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, FINANCE SECTOR UNION, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Rio’s chance to reward investors with jump in returns

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 1-Aug-17

Rio Tinto is widely tipped to post a 2017 interim underlying profit of $US4.12bn ($A5.16bn), compared with $US1.56bn previously. Market watchers also anticipate that Rio will lift its interim dividend from $US0.45 per share to $US1.18, with the prospect of a full-year payout of $US2.50 per share. Paul Hissey of RBC Capital Markets forecasts that a special dividend will boost Rio Tinto’s interim payout to $US1.42 a share. However, Glyn Lawcock of UBS expects the interim dividend to be $US0.93.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, GLENCORE PLC, VALE SA, GREAT BRITAIN. SERIOUS FRAUD OFFICE

China pullback won’t dent local M&A

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 31-Jul-17

Data from Dealogic shows that $US40.7bn ($A50.9bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions involving Australian companies have been announced so far in 2017. Minter Ellison partner Alberto Colla expects Japanese corporate raiders to continue to target local companies following a number of deals over the last 18 months. The law firm anticipates that US and Canadian companies will also be key drivers of M&A activity in Australia, particularly if Chinese deal-making is affected by China’s new regulations on financial outflows.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MINTER ELLISON, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, JAPAN POST COMPANY LIMITED, BRADKEN LIMITED, HITACHI CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY COMPANY LIMITED, ASG GROUP LIMITED, NOMURA RESEARCH INSTITUTE, PROGRAMMED MAINTENANCE SERVICES LIMITED – ASX PRG, PERSOL, SPOTLESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SPO, DOWNER EDI LIMITED – ASX DOW, VOCUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX VOC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD, CORNERSTONE RESEARCH GROUP, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, SLATER AND GORDON LIMITED – ASX SGH, QUINDELL PLC, CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – ASX CIM

Chevron on the cusp of starting up Wheatstone

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 31-Jul-17

Chevron has advised that the first production train at the Wheatstone LNG project in Western Australia is in the final stages of commissioning, and production is expected to begin in August 2017. Chevron’s Jay Johnson adds that the second production train is slated to become operational about 6-8 months later. He also says some efficiency improvements are likely when the second train begins production, as was Chevron’s experience at the Gorgon LNG project.

CORPORATES
CHEVRON CORPORATION, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, APACHE CORPORATION

Looking to profits to solve economy’s jumbled puzzle

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 25-Jul-17

PM Capital’s Uday Cheruvu says the August 2017 earnings season will be more important than usual given that business confidence seems to be improving but consumer confidence remains subdued. Cheruvu adds that capital expenditure intentions will also be a key metric in the upcoming reporting season, suggesting that building materials group in particular may increase capex. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs says companies whose earnings could exceed expectations include BlueScope Steel, Crown Resorts, Telstra and South32.

CORPORATES
PM CAPITAL LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED.- ASX BVS, COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX CGC, SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX SKC, COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX SGR, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, ADAIRS LIMITED – ASX ADH, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CYAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOUNDATION INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED – ASX AFI, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, RESMED INCORPORATED – ASX RMD, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH