BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Global funds take aim at media

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Original article by Jake Mitchell
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 1-Apr-16

UBS’s Justin Dwyer says the Australian Government’s proposed changes to cross-media ownership laws may prompt renewed interest in local media companies among their offshore peers and private equity firms. He suggests that companies which made offers to buy the Ten Network in 2015 could be among the potential suitors. Meanwhile, Greg Peirce of UBS says the media industry’s "structural challenges" may have more influence on merger activity in the sector than government reforms.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, PROVIDENCE EQUITY PARTNERS INCORPORATED, DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS INCORPORATED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DSH, AUSTRALIA. SENATE STANDING COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT, COMMUNICATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND THE ARTS, THOMSON REUTERS PLC

Miners feel pinch of dollar, oil switch

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 23-Mar-16

The Australian dollar has risen by about 10 per cent so far in 2016. This has offset the benefits of the rebound in the prices of key resources commodities, which are typically priced in US dollars. Mining companies have also been hit by increased fuel costs due to the rally in the crude oil price. Tom Price of Morgan Stanley says the rise in the value of the currency and the crude oil price may prompt more resources groups to reduce production or mothball mines.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Customers empty wallets in top malls

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Original article by Robert Harley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 18-Mar-16

Australian consumers like to shop in big shopping centres. The 2015 annual "Big Guns" survey by "Shopping Centre News" shows that Chadstone in Melbourne recorded retail spending of more than $A1.4 billion in 2015. Michael Lloyd, of "Shopping Centre News", expects all the biggest 10 centres to generate turnover in excess of $A1 billion by 2020.

CORPORATES
GANDEL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD

Miners won’t take pedal off the metal

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 14-Mar-16

The iron ore price has risen by about 65 per cent so far in 2016, although it has retreated from the year-to-date high of more than $US63 per tonne. Meanwhile, Paul Young of Deutsche Bank expects Rio Tinto’s iron ore output in the Pilbara to top 360 million tonnes in 2017, despite the miner’s own guidance of 350 million tonnes. There are also expectations that production at the Samarco joint venture between BHP Billiton and Vale will resume before the end of the 2016, while production at the Roy Hill iron ore project may increase.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CHINA. NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS, KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Study backs Pilbara lithium mine’s potential

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 11-Mar-16

A pre-feasibility study released by Australian-listed Pilbara Minerals is upbeat about the potential of the group’s Pilgangoora lithium project. The study concluded that the mine could yield 330,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate a year, with production costs of about $US205 per tonne. The study also forecasts that the project would have annual EBITDA of $A120m. The spot price of spodumene concentrate currently exceeds $US600 per tonne.

CORPORATES
PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX FTN, TESLA MOTORS INCORPORATED, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, FOSTER STOCKBROKING PTY LTD

Subsidy won’t generate target

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Original article by Ben Potter
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 10-Mar-16

Insufficient investment in wind and solar energy generation will make it difficult for Australian to reach the Renewable Energy Target (ERT). According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 532 megawatts of new wind and solar projects are under construction, which is less than a tenth of the capacity required to meet the RET. The Federal Government may need to renegotiate the target with the Opposition.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT

Origin Energy chief open to discuss merger offers

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 24 : 4-Mar-16

Market watchers have suggested a number of future strategies for Origin Energy, including a demerger or merging its oil and gas assets with Santos. Origin MD Grant King says the group has not ruled out any of the options that have been mooted, but he notes that all such deals would be complex and take time to complete. Meanwhile, King has downplayed concerns about a modest delay in progress on completing the first two production trains at the Australia Pacific LNG project in Queensland.

CORPORATES
ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC LNG LIMITED, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CONOCOPHILLIPS, SINOPEC CORPORATION, BECHTEL GROUP, KANSAI ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY INCORPORATED, QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET

$50m share raid puts Nine takeover in picture ahead of sector reforms

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Original article by Darren Davidson, Jake Mitchell
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 4-Mar-16

Shares in Nine Entertainment Company closed 3.42 per cent higher at $A1.51, amid revelations that an unknown buyer purchased 3.4 per cent of its shares via Deutsche Bank. The $A50m transaction was executed at $A1.60 per share, prompting speculation that Nine may become a takeover target. Fairfax Media has been touted as a potential suitor if cross-media ownership laws are relaxed, but the group has downplayed such speculation.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS AND THE ARTS, DOMAIN.COM.AU, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL

ASX200 payout slide set to dwarf counterparts

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 1-Mar-16

A number of companies in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 have increased their dividends in 2015-16, despite the financial market volatility. However, Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse expects the combined dividend payout of S&P/ASX 200 companies to fall from $A79bn in 2014-15 to just $A73bn. Meanwhile, the total capital returned to shareholders will be boosted by share buybacks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

BHP coalmine on the brink as profits dive

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 29-Feb-16

BHP Billiton’s Mount Arthur mine in New South Wales currently produces about 10 per cent of the thermal coal that is exported from Australia each year. However, BHP CEO Andrew Mackenzie recently signalled that production at the mine could potentially be suspended unless there is a rebound in the coal price. The price of thermal coal was trading at almost $US150 per tonne in 2011, but Goldman Sachs recently forecast that it will average just $US48/tonne in 2016.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32