BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Hartigan denies friction with Seven

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 11-Nov-15

Prime Media Group’s 11.4 per cent stakeholder Seven Group Holdings voted against the regional broadcaster’s remuneration report at its 2015 AGM. The "two strikes" rule will apply at the 2016 AGM after more than 34 per cent of Prime’s shareholders rejected the report. Meanwhile, Prime CEO Ian Audsley said the group could be acquired or seek to buy assets itself if there are changes to cross-media ownership laws. He added that Prime may be interested in buying radio assets but is unlikely to expand into regional print newspapers.

CORPORATES
PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, FOX SPORTS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, V8 SUPERCARS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE

Burst Brazilian dam likely to stay shut for years; owners face fines

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amanda Saunders, Matthew Stevens
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 10-Nov-15

Deutsche Bank’s Paul Young says BHP Billiton may have to reconsider its progressive dividend policy in the wake of a fatal incident at its Samarco iron ore joint venture in Brazil. Deutsche estimates that BHP and joint venture partner Vale could face costs of at least $US1bn ($A1.4bn) arising from the failure of a tailings dam at the mine in the state of Minas Gerais. Young says the Samarco project is unlikely to resume production before fiscal 2019, and it could potentially be closed permanently.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA

Australian M&A fires up as global uncertainty weighs on executives

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 9-Nov-15

A global survey of senior executives by EY Oceania shows that more than 50 per cent of Australian companies intend to pursue acquisitions in the next 12 months, compared with 44 per cent in the previous six-monthly survey. Mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia is particularly strong in sectors such as food services, consumer retailing and life sciences. Meanwhile, 64 per cent of respondents in Australia and New Zealand, plus 74 per cent globally, expect equity valuations to remain stable.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG, WOODSIDE PARK STUD PTY LTD, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO, QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUB, BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS LP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Nib upgrades profit forecast for 2015-16

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Tim Binsted
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 5-Nov-15

Australian-listed private health fund NIB Holdings has advised that its 2015-16 statutory profit is likely to be within the range of $A90m to $A100m. The group had previously forecast a profit of $A85m to $A90m and has attributed the improved forecast to a strong performance in the first quarter. Chairman Steve Crane says NIB gained more than 23,000 additional policyholders in 2014-15, and now provides health insurance for more than one million people.

CORPORATES
NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NHF, BUPA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH

Domino’s dishes up bigger profit but investors still hungry

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 24 : 5-Nov-15

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises expects 25 per cent growth in underlying net profit and EBITDA for 2015-16. The listed fast food group had previously forecast growth of 20 per cent for the fiscal year. Domino’s posted a net profit of $A64m in 2014-15, and analysts expect this to top $A81.2m in 2015-16. Domino’s now boasts more than 1,500 stores in six countries, and it intends to open at least 260 in 2015. Domino’s shares closed $A0.24 lower at $A47.65 on 4 November 2015.

CORPORATES
DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, PIZZA MOGUL, PIZZA SPRINT

China to take over as most frequent visitors

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 3-Nov-15

Tourism Research Australia forecasts a rise of 5.9 per cent in the number of foreign tourists to 7.5 million in 2015-16. The number of mainland Chinese visitors is likely to rise 15.5 per cent. By 2019-2020, the number of Chinese visitors is expected to reach 1.4 million, catapulting this category of the market to the top of tourism source countries.

CORPORATES
TOURISM RESEARCH AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, TTF AUSTRALIA LIMITED TOURISM AND TRANSPORT FORUM, TOURISM ACCOMMODATION AUSTRALIA, TOURISM RESEARCH AUSTRALIA

Bank profits feel the heat of increased competition

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 2-Nov-15

Factors such as low interest rates and growing competition are putting downward pressure on the lending margins of Australia’s major banks. Westpac has reported flat net interest margins for fiscal 2015, while the rival "big four" banks reported lower margins. Julie Coates of PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts that the banks’ margins will fall below the record low of 2.05 per cent recorded in 2008.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

The winds of change will hit companies

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Age – Page: 27 : 30-Oct-15

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the El Nino weather phenomenon will benefit Australian-listed companies across a range of sectors during the 2015-16 summer. Coca-Cola Amatil, JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, Origin Energy and AGL Energy are among the companies that are tipped to enjoy stronger revenue due to the warmer weather associated with El Nino. Mining companies and insurers are also expected to benefit, but wheat, grain and beef producers in particular are likely to be adversely affected.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC

Bank ‘power’ to protect $30b profits

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Shaun Drummond, Patrick Commins, Clancy Yeates, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 26-Oct-15

Some fund managers believe that Australian bank customers rather than shareholders are likely to bear the brunt of complying with new capital requirements. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres recently suggested that shareholders should expect a slightly lower return as a result of the new requirements. However, all four major banks have now lifted their variable mortgage loan interest rates. Meanwhile, the major banks are poised to post a combined profit in excess of $A30bn for 2014-15.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AURORA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CONTANGO ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, ARGO INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX ARG, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, MARTIN CURRIE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wind down Masters, Woolworths told

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 22-Oct-15

The Masters Home Improvement joint venture is expected to post a loss of $A236m in the next year, following a loss of $A245m in fiscal 2015. Deutsche Bank estimates that Woolworths could boost its profits by around five per cent by exiting the Masters venture. It could also make a net cash gain of $A161m, while joint venture partner Lowe’s would make a gain of $A80m. Woolworths has invested $A2.2bn in Masters to date.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LOWE’S COMPANIES INCORPORATED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD