BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

IPO wave may not be sustainable

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Larissa Nicholson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 13-Mar-15

Seven companies debuted on the Australian sharemarket during the first two months of 2015. Deloitte’s Ian Turner notes that these stocks have collectively gained 23 per cent since their IPOs. The market boasted a total of 74 IPOs in 2014, which raised a combined $A26bn. Turner cautions that the IPO market may not match this performance in 2015, noting that the float market had been subdued prior to 2014

CORPORATES
DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, APPEN LIMITED – ASX APX, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO

CBA to feast on growing SME pie

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Misa Han
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 12-Mar-15

Macquarie Group is upbeat about the outlook for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), lifting its share price target from $A99 to $A101. Michael Wiblin of Macquarie believes that CBA in particular is in a strong position among the four major banks to increase its share of the small and medium enterprise banking market. He notes that the ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank seem to be losing market share to CBA in this sector

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ONDECK, KABBAGE, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

China iron ore demand to fall

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angus Grigg, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 11-Mar-15

Former Bureau of Resource & Energy Economics CEO Quentin Grafton notes that major iron ore producers have forecast that Australia’s exports to China will peak in the 2020s. However, he believes that Chinese shipments could be reaching their peak now. J Capital Research MD Tim Murray also suggests that Australian iron ore exports may be approaching their peak, and forecasts that a fall in volumes of up to 10 per cent in 2015

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE. BUREAU OF RESOURCES AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, J CAPITAL RESEARCH COMPANY LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY. CRAWFORD SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND GOVERNMENT, CHINA. GENERAL ADMINISTRATION OF CUSTOMS, CHINA METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PLANNING AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED

Virgin predicts lag before revival

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matt O’Sullivan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 6-Mar-15

Virgin Australia Holdings CEO John Borghetti says it will take some time for a lower Australian dollar to stimulate growth in the number of foreign tourists. The full impact is most likely to be experienced in the second half of 2015. The airline is expanding its regional routes. From 25 May 2015, Virgin will offer six flights a week between Sydney and Tamworth

CORPORATES
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, SKYWEST AIRLINES LIMITED, QANTASLINK, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED – ASX AQZ, SKYTRANS AIRLINES, BRINDABELLA AIRLINES, VINCENT AVIATION (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Hedge funds line up takeover targets

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 6-Mar-15

Regal Funds Management’s Julian Barbarczy says a number of factors could result in higher-than-average mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia during 2015. He stresses that investors should decide to buy a stock after considering a range of factors rather than just its potential to become a takeover target. Recent strong share price gains have prompted speculation that suitors could soon be circling stocks such as Treasury Wine Estates, DUET Group, Syrah Resources, Challenger, Qube Holdings and Sirius Resources

CORPORATES
REGAL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, DUET GROUP – ASX DUE, SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX SYR, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUB, SIRIUS RESOURCES NL – ASX SIR, CLIME ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, LIVEWIRE MARKETS, SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP – ASX SKI, APA GROUP – ASX APA, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TOL, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO

Private equity bosses tip rosier times ahead

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sally Rose, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 5-Mar-15

Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) gained $A4.5bn from divesting businesses via IPOs and trade sales in 2013 and 2014. International buyers accounted for most of the firm’s trade sales, and Nathanial Thomson of Crescent Capital expects the trend for offshore buyers to purchase Australian businesses to continue. Meanwhile, PEP MD Tim Sims is upbeat about the outlook for Australia’s business sector, and says offshore investors should not be deterred by data showing that the economy is slowing

CORPORATES
PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, CRESCENT CAPITAL PARTNERS LIMITED, XTRALIS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, PITCHER PARTNERS CORPORATE ADVISORY PTY LTD, KING AND WOOD MALLESONS

Dividends keep climbing despite weak corporate profits

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 4-Mar-15

Data from JP Morgan shows that the dividend payout ratio for companies in the S&P/ASX 200 increased by about five per cent overall during the February 2015 reporting season. Deutsche Bank in turn estimates that underlying earnings growth rose by about two per cent overall. The benchmark index gained 6.1 per cent during February. Meanwhile, JP Morgan and Citigroup have both scaled back their expectations for growth in earnings per share for the full year

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CONTANGO ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FIDELITY INVESTMENTS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, S&P CAPITAL IQ

Boomers will keep Ramsay’s hospital beds full

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 27-Feb-15

Australian-listed Ramsay Health Care has posted a 2014-15 interim net profit of $A191.4m, which is 21.3 per cent higher than previously. The private hospitals group recorded revenue of $A3.3bn for the half-year, an increase of 41.6 per cent. Its Australian division’s EBIT was up 12.6 per cent at $A282.8m and revenue was eight per cent higher at $A2bn. Ramsay expects core net profit for the full year to be 18-20 per cent higher than previously

CORPORATES
RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, GENERALE DE SANTE SA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, HYPERION ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Qantas on target for $1b profit

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 12 : 27-Feb-15

Qantas has reported a 2014-15 interim net profit of $A204m, compared with a loss of $A235m in the first half of 2013-14. The carrier’s underlying result for the half-year rose from a loss of $A252m to a pre-tax profit of $A367m. Qantas is now tipped to achieve a full-year underlying profit of around $A1bn, following a loss of $A646m in 2013-14. CEO Alan Joyce says the airline’s focus remains on debt reduction, but adds that it could resume paying dividends at some stage

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, TRANSPORT WORKERS’ UNION, FIJI AIRWAYS, JETSTAR AIRLINES PTY LTD

Monash IVF confident on revenue

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 26-Feb-15

Australian-listed Monash IVF has posted a 2014-15 interim net profit of $A11m, while enquiries from prospective patients rose by four per cent. CEO James Thiedeman forecasts that around 70 per cent of these enquiries will result in new patients for the group. Monash IVF shares closed $A0.05 higher at $A1.405 on 25 February 2015

CORPORATES
MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED – ASX MVF, FLINDERS FERTILITY