BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Myer defends timing of downgrade

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Original article by Madeleine Heffernan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 25-Mar-15

Myer Holdings’ disclosure practices came under scrutiny after its 2014-15 full-year earnings forecast was reduced by up to 24 per cent. Critics have argued that the group should have advised of the earnings downgrade when it revealed management changes several weeks earlier. However, Myer has told the ASX that its directors did not become aware that full-year profits would be lower than expected until the day before its interim results were released

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Corbett on mergers, mistakes, News

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 23-Mar-15

Fairfax Media chairman Roger Corbett has welcomed proposed changes to Australia’s cross-media ownership laws. Corbett says Fairfax is in a strong position to participate in any rationalisation of the media industry, adding that there would be significant economies of scale from Fairfax merging with a TV network. Meanwhile, Corbett has stressed that the print editions of Fairfax’s major newspapers are not under threat, and concedes that the group should have bought Carsales.com in 2006

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CRZ, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, DOMAIN.COM.AU, AUSTEREO GROUP LIMITED

Foxtel fights back as streaming services tempt subscribers

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 23-Mar-15

A Venture Consulting surveys shows that around 250,000 of Foxtel’s customers intend to cancel or reduce their pay-TV subscription and start using a video streaming service in the next three months. Foxtel CEO Richard Freudenstein is confident that the company’s subscriber base will not be unduly affected by the growth of video streaming. Foxtel has joined forces with Seven West Media to establish its own streaming service

CORPORATES
FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, VENTURE CONSULTING PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, QUICKFLIX LIMITED – ASX QFX, STAN, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, APPLE INCORPORATED, COMCAST CORPORATION, TIME WARNER INCORPORATED

ME Bank maintains high growth targets

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Original article by Shaun Drummond
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 18-Mar-15

ME Bank boasted about 312,000 customers in July 2014, but it aims to lift this to one million by 2020. ME Bank has reported an underlying profit of $A29.1m for the first half of 2014-15, which is 14 per cent higher than previously, and it expects full-year profit to rise by 25 per cent to around $A60m. Home loan settlements rose by 41 per cent to $A2.4bn in the half-year, and its loan book rose by $A1.5bn to $A16.4bn

CORPORATES
MEMBERS EQUITY BANK PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

IPO wave may not be sustainable

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Original article by Larissa Nicholson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 13-Mar-15

Seven companies debuted on the Australian sharemarket during the first two months of 2015. Deloitte’s Ian Turner notes that these stocks have collectively gained 23 per cent since their IPOs. The market boasted a total of 74 IPOs in 2014, which raised a combined $A26bn. Turner cautions that the IPO market may not match this performance in 2015, noting that the float market had been subdued prior to 2014

CORPORATES
DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, APPEN LIMITED – ASX APX, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO

CBA to feast on growing SME pie

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Original article by Misa Han
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 12-Mar-15

Macquarie Group is upbeat about the outlook for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), lifting its share price target from $A99 to $A101. Michael Wiblin of Macquarie believes that CBA in particular is in a strong position among the four major banks to increase its share of the small and medium enterprise banking market. He notes that the ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank seem to be losing market share to CBA in this sector

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ONDECK, KABBAGE, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

China iron ore demand to fall

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Original article by Angus Grigg, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 11-Mar-15

Former Bureau of Resource & Energy Economics CEO Quentin Grafton notes that major iron ore producers have forecast that Australia’s exports to China will peak in the 2020s. However, he believes that Chinese shipments could be reaching their peak now. J Capital Research MD Tim Murray also suggests that Australian iron ore exports may be approaching their peak, and forecasts that a fall in volumes of up to 10 per cent in 2015

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE. BUREAU OF RESOURCES AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, J CAPITAL RESEARCH COMPANY LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY. CRAWFORD SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND GOVERNMENT, CHINA. GENERAL ADMINISTRATION OF CUSTOMS, CHINA METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PLANNING AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED

Virgin predicts lag before revival

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Original article by Matt O’Sullivan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 6-Mar-15

Virgin Australia Holdings CEO John Borghetti says it will take some time for a lower Australian dollar to stimulate growth in the number of foreign tourists. The full impact is most likely to be experienced in the second half of 2015. The airline is expanding its regional routes. From 25 May 2015, Virgin will offer six flights a week between Sydney and Tamworth

CORPORATES
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, SKYWEST AIRLINES LIMITED, QANTASLINK, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED – ASX AQZ, SKYTRANS AIRLINES, BRINDABELLA AIRLINES, VINCENT AVIATION (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Hedge funds line up takeover targets

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 6-Mar-15

Regal Funds Management’s Julian Barbarczy says a number of factors could result in higher-than-average mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia during 2015. He stresses that investors should decide to buy a stock after considering a range of factors rather than just its potential to become a takeover target. Recent strong share price gains have prompted speculation that suitors could soon be circling stocks such as Treasury Wine Estates, DUET Group, Syrah Resources, Challenger, Qube Holdings and Sirius Resources

CORPORATES
REGAL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, DUET GROUP – ASX DUE, SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX SYR, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUB, SIRIUS RESOURCES NL – ASX SIR, CLIME ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, LIVEWIRE MARKETS, SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP – ASX SKI, APA GROUP – ASX APA, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TOL, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO

Private equity bosses tip rosier times ahead

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Original article by Sally Rose, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 5-Mar-15

Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) gained $A4.5bn from divesting businesses via IPOs and trade sales in 2013 and 2014. International buyers accounted for most of the firm’s trade sales, and Nathanial Thomson of Crescent Capital expects the trend for offshore buyers to purchase Australian businesses to continue. Meanwhile, PEP MD Tim Sims is upbeat about the outlook for Australia’s business sector, and says offshore investors should not be deterred by data showing that the economy is slowing

CORPORATES
PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, CRESCENT CAPITAL PARTNERS LIMITED, XTRALIS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, PITCHER PARTNERS CORPORATE ADVISORY PTY LTD, KING AND WOOD MALLESONS