Seeds of next LNG glut already being sown

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 9-Jan-20

Growth in Asian demand for LNG slowed to 2.1 per cent in 2019, amid a global oversupply. However, Bernstein Research forecasts that the glut will end in the second half of 2020 as Asian demand rebounds and a five-year expansion of global output comes to an end. Bernstein also cautions that another oversupply could emerge in the mid-2020s, with a number of new LNG projects slated for coming years. The firm anticipates that projects to be approved over the next 18 months will boost global production by about 70 million tonnes a year.

CORPORATES
BERNSTEIN INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, ENTE NAZIONALE IDROCARBURI SPA, INPEX CORPORATION, TOTAL SA

China appetite for ore strong, says Fortescue

Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 16-Dec-19

Fortescue Metals Group CEO Elizabeth Gaines is upbeat about the outlook for the iron ore price in 2020. She says the benchmark price will continue to benefit from inventory restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year, while she does not expect the price gap between benchmark iron ore and the lower-grade ore produced by Fortescue to widen much. Fortescue received 89 per cent of the benchmark price during the September 2019 quarter, after the gap had widened significantly in mid-2018.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Base metals set to rebound in 2020: Ausbil

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 18 : 11-Nov-19

The price of copper remains below $US6000 per tonne on the London Metals Exchange, having reached a low of $US5,610/tonne in early September. However, Ausbil portfolio managers are upbeat about the outlook for copper and other base metals in 2020; they say indications that the US-China trade war is stabilising should be enough to prompt manufacturers to begin restocking their raw materials inventory.

CORPORATES
AUSBIL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE LIMITED

No market for new uranium mines: Cameco

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 20 : 6-Nov-19

Canada-based Cameco will produce just nine million pounds of uranium in 2020; instead, the bulk of the uranium it supplies to customers will be sourced from the spot market. CEO Tim Gitzel says there is no economic case at present for the construction of new uranium mines, given the large amount of uranium that has been stockpiled. The spot price of uranium averaged $US25.68 a pound in the September quarter, which is well below the long-term price that is required for Cameco’s mines in Australia to be viable.

CORPORATES
CAMECO CORPORATION, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, ENERGY RESOURCES OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX ERA, PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX PDN, DEEP YELLOW LIMITED – ASX DYL

Miners tipping China’s winter halts to ease

Original article by Peter Ker, Brad Thompson, Mike Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 28-Oct-19

Fortescue Metals Group COO Greg Lilleyman says China’s annual winter shutdown of industries such as steel-making is likely to have less impact on commodity prices than in recent years. He adds that it is hard to predict the extent of the shutdowns, given that much of the responsibility for implementing the policy to improve air quality has been delegated to provincial governments. South32 CEO Graham Kerr says that some winter production cuts are likely, but he adds that China is also likely to prioritise economic growth.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, WOOD MACKENZIE

Iron ore forecasts tumble, resources giants downgraded

Original article by Robert Guy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 2-Oct-19

Credit Suisse has scaled back its benchmark iron ore price forecasts for the next three years, due to expectations that Chinese steel production will peak in 2019. The firm now expects iron ore to fetch $US80 a tonne in 2020, which is six per cent lower than its previous guidance. Its price forecast for 2021 has been cut by 13 per cent to $US65/tonne, while the iron ore price is now expected to average $US60 a tonne in 2022. Credit Suisse has also reduced its share price targets for BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, while its rating on the latter has been downgraded from ‘neutral’ to ‘underperform’.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Good news for exports with iron ore set to enjoy another bountiful year

Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 25 : 31-Jul-19

Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service expects that supply constraints will ensure that the price of iron ore remains high during the rest of 2019 and in 2020. Moody’s has cited factors such as the impact of a tailings dam collapse in Brazil in January and Cyclone Veronica in Western Australia for its revised forecast. The firm had previously expected the iron ore market to be in surplus in 2019.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA

Rio Tinto to take iron ore exports crown as Vale struggles

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 26 : 24-Jul-19

Rio Tinto and Brazilian rival Vale are both expected to record lower iron ore shipments in 2019 than the previous calendar year. New data shows that Vale exported 138.5 million tonnes of iron ore during the first half of 2019, a decline of 18 per cent year-on-year. Vale expects its shipments to rise in the second half, with full-year exports to be around the midpoint of its guidance of between 307 million and 332 million tonnes. This suggests full-year exports of around 319.5 million tonnes. Rio Tinto in turn expects to ship between 320 million and 330 million tonnes of iron ore for the year.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, KUMBA RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron ore shortage to keep prices elevated

Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 27 : 11-Jul-19

Some analysts have forecast a further pullback in the iron ore price, which has retreated from its recent peak of around $US126 per tonne. National Australia Bank now expects the price of the steel input to average $US92/tonne during 2019 and $US74 in 2020. Meanwhile, Macquarie has indicated that the downturn in iron ore inventories at Chinese ports suggests that it will trade in the $US90s in the near-term.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION, VALE SA, BAOWU GROUP

Iron ore prices to remain high

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 20 : 9-Jul-19

The price of iron ore for delivery to China firmed on 8 July, after falling sharply in the previous week in response to calls for Chinese government intervention. Meanwhile, Ord Minnett expects the benchmark price of iron ore to remain high for the remainder of 2019, before averaging $US87 per tonne in 2020. The firm also notes that an increase in steel production has seen iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports decline for 12 consecutive weeks. Ord Minnett has increased its Chinese steel production forecast for 2019 by seven per cent year-on-year, to 992 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
ORD MINNETT GROUP LIMITED, CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION, CHINA. NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM COMMISSION, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO