Vale fights to meet iron ore guidance

Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 4-Jun-20

Macquarie Wealth Management’s analysis of port data shows that BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group are on track to achieve their iron ore export guidance for 2020. However, Macquarie believes that Brazilian rival Vale will struggle to meet its full-year guidance of 310 million to 330 million tonnes, despite ramping up shipments in the last two weeks. Macquarie estimates that Vale will need to export more than six million tonnes per week to achieve the lower end of its guidance; its weekly shipments have averaged 4.5 million tonnes so far in the June quarter.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP,RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO,FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG,VALE SA,MACQUARIE WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Boom times back for iron ore

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 22-May-20

Adrian Prendergast of Morgans Financial says continued strong demand from China could see the iron ore price rise above $US120 a tonne. Reduced output by Brazilian iron ore group Vale is also likely to boost the price of the steel input; Prendergast notes that Vale’s shipments have totalled just 91 million tonnes so far in 2020, and it will have to ramp up production to meet its revised full-year guidance of 310 to 330 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Australian iron ore miners have downplayed the impact of China’s new rules for inspecting iron ore imports, stressing that they had been planned for some time and were implemented after extensive consultation.

CORPORATES
MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Full steel ahead for Fortescue as China draws down ore stockpiles

Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 6-May-20

Fortescue Metals Group CEO Elizabeth Gaines expects demand for iron ore to remain strong due to China’s urbanisation policy. China produced 234.5 million tonnes of crude steel in the March quarter, which is 1.2 per cent higher than the same period in 2019. Gaines says that any additional economic stimulus in China would further boost demand for steel, and therefore iron ore. Meanwhile, Gaines is confident that Fortescue’s application to increase its export capacity at Port Hedland by 20 per cent will be approved.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Oil crash threatens to sink industry

Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 23-Apr-20

Shares in Australian oil and gas producers were sold down on 22 April, as the global oil glut and falling demand continued to weigh on the crude oil price. The price of Brent crude oil reached a low of US15.98 a barrel, and Citigroup expects it to fall below $US10. The firm expects Brent to average $US17 a barrel during the June quarter. Coal-seam gas industry executive Richard Cottee says a significant production cut may be needed to boost the crude oil price.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Airlines set for worst since GFC

Original article by Lucas Baird
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 27-Feb-20

CAPA-Centre for Aviation chairman Peter Harbison says the coronavirus will have a major impact on the global aviation sector if it is not contained quickly. He warns that if the virus outbreak becomes a pandemic, it will have the biggest impact on aviation since the global financial crisis. The International Air Transport Association estimates that the coronavirus will reduce the earnings of Asia-Pacific airlines by $US27.8bn in 2020.

CORPORATES
CAPA – CENTRE FOR AVIATION, INTERNATIONAL AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION

Brazil struggles may prolong iron ore boom

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 24-Jan-20

Brazilian miner Vale will release a market update on 11 February, but several sources have suggested that its iron ore exports so far in January are significantly lower than previously. Vale had flagged lower shipments in the first quarter of 2020, although it has advised that export volumes would rise later in the year. Nevertheless, lower exports from Brazil could see the price of iron ore remain high in the near-term, which would boost the earnings of Australian producers and federal government revenue.

CORPORATES
VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Seeds of next LNG glut already being sown

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 9-Jan-20

Growth in Asian demand for LNG slowed to 2.1 per cent in 2019, amid a global oversupply. However, Bernstein Research forecasts that the glut will end in the second half of 2020 as Asian demand rebounds and a five-year expansion of global output comes to an end. Bernstein also cautions that another oversupply could emerge in the mid-2020s, with a number of new LNG projects slated for coming years. The firm anticipates that projects to be approved over the next 18 months will boost global production by about 70 million tonnes a year.

CORPORATES
BERNSTEIN INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, ENTE NAZIONALE IDROCARBURI SPA, INPEX CORPORATION, TOTAL SA

China appetite for ore strong, says Fortescue

Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 16-Dec-19

Fortescue Metals Group CEO Elizabeth Gaines is upbeat about the outlook for the iron ore price in 2020. She says the benchmark price will continue to benefit from inventory restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year, while she does not expect the price gap between benchmark iron ore and the lower-grade ore produced by Fortescue to widen much. Fortescue received 89 per cent of the benchmark price during the September 2019 quarter, after the gap had widened significantly in mid-2018.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Base metals set to rebound in 2020: Ausbil

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 18 : 11-Nov-19

The price of copper remains below $US6000 per tonne on the London Metals Exchange, having reached a low of $US5,610/tonne in early September. However, Ausbil portfolio managers are upbeat about the outlook for copper and other base metals in 2020; they say indications that the US-China trade war is stabilising should be enough to prompt manufacturers to begin restocking their raw materials inventory.

CORPORATES
AUSBIL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE LIMITED

No market for new uranium mines: Cameco

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 20 : 6-Nov-19

Canada-based Cameco will produce just nine million pounds of uranium in 2020; instead, the bulk of the uranium it supplies to customers will be sourced from the spot market. CEO Tim Gitzel says there is no economic case at present for the construction of new uranium mines, given the large amount of uranium that has been stockpiled. The spot price of uranium averaged $US25.68 a pound in the September quarter, which is well below the long-term price that is required for Cameco’s mines in Australia to be viable.

CORPORATES
CAMECO CORPORATION, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, ENERGY RESOURCES OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX ERA, PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX PDN, DEEP YELLOW LIMITED – ASX DYL