BUSINESS FORECASTING

Big miners defy iron ore price slide to hold firm

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 20-Apr-17

The iron ore price has shed 33 per cent in the last month, and it has now fallen to a six-month low. However, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has upgraded its average price forecast for 2017 from $US55 per tonne to $US66. The firm has also upgraded Rio Tinto’s "A-" credit rating from "stable" to "positive", and flagged the potential for a further upgrade within 12-18 months. Shares in Australia’s three largest iron ore producers were resilient in local trading on 19 April, despite the falling iron price.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, STANDARD AND POOR’S FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD INCORPORATED

Iron ore dives but stockpile declines

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 11-Apr-17

The spot price of iron ore for delivery to the port of Qingdao in China recently reached a low of $US75.45 per tonne, compared with a peak of $US94.86 in late February. However, China’s iron ore stockpiles have fallen by 1.1 million tonnes to 121 million tonnes since early April. The recent downturn in the spot price had been attributed to a sharp rise in Chinese stockpiles. Macquarie Group notes that demand for iron ore and steel will be boosted by the Chinese Government’s plans to develop the new Xiongan region.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, IRON ORE RESEARCH PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, COMMUNIST PARTY (CHINA)

Fears grow of pullback in iron ore prices

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 22 : 8-Mar-17

Australian iron ore miners’ earnings have been boosted by the recent spike in the price of the steel input to more than $US90 per tonne, but Evans & Partners analyst Andrew Hines warns that the rally is not sustainable. He forecasts that the iron ore price will fall from its current level to around $US45 in the second half of 2017, which will in turn hit the profits and share prices of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group. Credit Suisse and UBS recently upgraded their iron ore price forecasts for 2017.

CORPORATES
EVANS AND PARTNERS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX

Forrest cautious on iron outlook

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Original article by Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 13-Jan-17

Iron ore is trading at around $US80 a tonne, although it is tipped to fall to $US51.60 by mid-2017 and $US46.70 in 2018. The price of the steel input bottomed at $US36 per tonne in 2015, prompting Fortescue Metals Group to slash its debt and reduce its workforce. Fortescue also reduced its costs to just $US14.31 per tonne, but chairman Andrew Forrest says the group aims to achieve further cost reductions given the outlook for the iron ore price. Forrest also continues to advocate action to end slavery, and he has urged all Australian companies to take a similar stance.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, WALK FREE FOUNDATION, MINDEROO FOUNDATION, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, VALE SA, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Continued iron ore rally faces threat as supply worry returns

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Original article by Ranjeetha Pakiam
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Jan-17

The price of iron ore may be negatively affected by oversupply and lower demand. Having risen 81 per cent to around $US80 a tonne in 2016, it is unlikely to continue to climb in 2017. Rising iron ore prices have had a positive impact on share prices of Australian-listed mining companies, with Rio Tinto’s shares gaining 34 per cent in value in 2016.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA

Fortescue steers past another milestone with iron ore carrier

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Original article by Angus Grigg
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 30-Nov-16

Pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group has officially launched the first of eight bulk carriers that are being built in China. Each vessel’s capacity will be around 260,000 tonnes, and Fortescue CEO Nev Power says the investment in the fleet reflects the company’s confidence in the long-term outlook for the Chinese and Asian economies, as well as demand for iron ore. The price of the steel input has reached a two-year high, but Power expects it to trade at between $US50 and $US60 over the long-term.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Gold company bosses expect more volatility

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 30-Nov-16

The gold price reached a nine-month low of $US1,182 an ounce in late November 2016, defying expectations of a rally following Donald Trump’s presidential election win. It was trading above $US1,300 prior to the election, and Resolute Mining CEO John Welborn expects further volatility in the gold price in the near-term. Meanwhile, Dacian Gold will partially finance its Mount Morgans project via a $A150m equity raising, while Northern Star Resources’ COO Stuart Tonkin will succeed CEO Bill Beament. The latter will become executive chairman.

CORPORATES
RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED – ASX RSG, DACIAN GOLD LIMITED – ASX DCN, NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX NST

Rio iron ore growth slows on China move

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 23 : 25-Nov-16

Rio Tinto CEO Jean Sebastien Jacques says uncertainty regarding the Chinese Government’s restructuring of state-owned enterprises means that China’s steel production is now unlikely to peak at one billion tonnes per year. He also notes that China’s iron ore production is believed to have risen to between 260 and 270 million tonnes a year, and the supply-demand equation would be significantly changed if China’s annual output reached full capacity of 400 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto may not achieve its annual export target of 360 million tonnes before 2019, although it expects shipments in 2017 to be between 330 million and 340 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

BHP upbeat on China iron, coal demand

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 20 : 18-Nov-16

Malcolm Broomhead, Carolyn Hewson and Lindsay Maxsted are said to be the leading internal contenders to succeed BHP Billiton chairman Jac Nasser, who intends to step down by mid-2017. Meanwhile, CEO Andrew Mackenzie says demand for Australian iron ore and coal has been boosted by the Chinese Government’s efforts to make its steel mills and coal mines more efficient. However, he adds that BHP is taking the view that a likely increase in global supply means the current price of iron ore will not be sustained. In contrast, Deutsche Bank has lifted its forecast for the iron ore price by 21 per cent in 2017, to $US55 per tonne.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

‘Too far, too fast’ for iron ore upswing

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 17-Nov-16

Katana Asset Management’s Romano Sala Tenna says the iron ore price has risen too quickly, and he notes that global supply is likely to increase if the price remains elevated. The pullback in the price of the steel input in mid-November 2016 has followed a rally in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidential election win. China’s Ministry of Industry & Information Technology recently forecast that the nation’s annual production of crude steel will fall to between 750 million and 800 million tonnes by 2020.

CORPORATES
KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CHINA. MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CLARKSONS PLATOU SECURITIES, BLOOMBERG WORLD IRON AND STEEL INDEX, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES)