BUSINESS FORECASTING

Dakota chief tips Tesla’s end within 10 years

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 8-Sep-16

Dakota Minerals has bought a tenement package in Portugal in anticipation of a rise in demand for lithium in Europe. David Frances, the CEO of the Australian-listed lithium explorer, expects strong demand for lithium from European manufacturers of electric cars. In contrast, Frances is sceptical about the popularity of electric cars in the US, where buyers are likely to show limited interest in such cars.

CORPORATES
DAKOTA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX DKO, TESLA MOTORS INCORPORATED, MERCEDES-BENZ AG, VOLKSWAGEN AG, BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE

Man who tipped iron ore upturn sees it going on

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Original article by Jasmine Ng
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 12-Aug-16

The iron ore price has averaged around $US53 per tonne so far in 2016. Prestige Economics president Jason Schenker has forecast that the price of the steel input will average $US55 per tonne for the full calendar year. He also expects it to trade at around $US60 per tonne in the second half, while he says it will rise to $US62 in 2017 and $US72 in 2018. Schenker had forecast in October 2015 that the iron ore price would rebound, citing factors such as economic stimulus measures in China.

CORPORATES
PRESTIGE ECONOMICS LLC, ABN AMRO BANK NV, METAL BULLETIN LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA

Rio tamps down iron rally hope

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 4-Aug-16

Rio Tinto has posted a 2016 interim underlying profit of $US1.56bn, which is 47 per cent lower than previously. Weaker commodities prices reduced the underlying profit by $US1.9bn, while the net profit from its iron ore operations in Western Australia fell by 17 per cent to $US1.74bn. Meanwhile, CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques has warned that the recent upturn in the iron ore price may not be sustained, noting that the availability of credit was a major driver of increased demand for steel in China during the June quarter.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES LIMITED

End of Australia’s iron ore supply rush should help prices

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Original article by David Stringer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 22-Jul-16

The iron ore price has gained about 28 per cent so far in 2016, and SRK Consulting’s Caue Araujo says it could be further boosted in the near-term as a result of lower growth in shipments by Australia’s major producers. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto aim to eventually lift their production capacity in Western Australia to 290 million and 360 million tonnes respectively, but Macquarie Group recently suggested that neither may reach its target.

CORPORATES
SRK CONSULTING INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, VALE SA, METAL BULLETIN LIMITED

US election a Trump card for gold price, says Beament

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 21-Jul-16

Northern Star Resources’ gold production totalled 558,143 ounces in 2015-16, with sales of 561,153 ounces. MD Bill Beament remains bullish about the outlook for gold, forecasting that the recent rally in the price of the precious metal will be sustained. He notes that the UK’s vote to leave the European Union has had little impact on the gold price. He expects the gold price to rise further if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election, although he did not specifically name the Republican candidate.

CORPORATES
NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX NST, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES)

Bleak credit outlook rating for oil and gas this quarter

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 14-Jul-16

Brent crude oil was trading at around $US48 per barrel on 13 July 2016, but ratings agency Standard & Poor’s still expects it to average $US40 for the remainder of the calendar year. Meanwhile, Lawrence Hu of S&P has identified the potential for a sustained oversupply of oil as the biggest risk for oil and gas companies in the Asia-Pacific region. Both S&P and Moody’s expect the oil price to average $US45 in 2017.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Goldman says iron ore imports into China to fall off

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Original article by Jasmine Ng
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 4-Jul-16

A new report from Goldman Sachs forecasts a two per cent decline in China’s steel consumption in both 2017 and 2018. The investment bank also recently forecast that China’s iron ore imports will total 971 million tonnes in 2016, compared with 953 million tonnes in 2015. Iron ore imports are tipped to rise slightly in 2017, followed by a decline in subsequent years. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has maintained its long-term forecast of $US35 per tonne for iron ore.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, METAL BULLETIN LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA

Commodities glut will last 10 years, says BHP

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 22-Jun-16

BHP Billiton CEO Andrew Mackenzie says factors such as a low cost base means the group is in a better position to ride out the downturn in commodity prices than many rivals. He has forecast that the global oversupply of key commodities could to persist for about 10 years due to the big increase in capital investment during the resources boom. Mackenzie adds that demand and supply of iron ore in particular is likely to be take a long time to return to balance.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, ASIA SOCIETY

LNG price pain is still to come

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 17-Jun-16

Oversupply in the LNG Asian market could force some of Australia’s LNG producers to reduce capacity. Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of consultancy FGE, says prices will be under pressure. The price of LNG in north Asia has declined to about $US4.50 per million British thermal units from about $US20 in early 2014, and further declines are likely.

CORPORATES
ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, FGE

No relief in sight for iron ore bulls

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 3-Jun-16

Morgan Stanley notes that global iron ore production will rise by 41 million tonnes in the second half of 2016, followed by an additional 78 million tonnes in 2017. The looming increase in global supply does not bode well for the price of the steel input, which has fallen by more than 30 per cent since late April 2016. BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale are among the iron ore producers that will increase their output in coming years, as new projects or mine expansions reach full production capacity.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA