BUSINESS FORECASTING

The lithium boom will end, like all the others

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 28 : 1-Jun-16

Expectations of strong growth in demand for lithium-ion batteries has prompted a rally in the price of lithium, and in turn bolstered the share prices of lithium producers. However, there are some similarities between the lithium boom and the iron ore boom. Macquarie Group believes that the lithium boom will have run its course within about 18 months. It has "buy" recommendations on just two lithium producers, Orocobre and Neometals.

CORPORATES
OROCOBRE LIMITED – ASX ORE, NEOMETALS LIMITED – ASX NMT, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GXY, GENERAL MINING CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX GMM, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX PLS, ALTURA MINING LIMITED – ASX AJM, LATIN RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX LRS, TALISON LITHIUM LIMITED, SQM, ALBERMARLE CORPORATION, FMC LITHIUM, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Energy players ready for mergers

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 31 : 26-May-16

A global survey by international law firm Ashurst has found that 83 per cent of oil and gas company executives anticipate a 50 per cent rise in mergers and acquisitions activity in the sector during 2016. M&A activity is also expected to rise strongly over the next 3-5 years. Meanwhile, some 87 per cent of respondents indicated that their latest strategic plan has either reduced their capital investment budget or left it unchanged.

CORPORATES
ASHURST LLP, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, INTEROIL CORPORATION, AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, LONE STAR FUNDS

Stockpiles of iron ore drive prices lower

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Original article by Matt Chambers, Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 25-May-16

New data shows that iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports have risen to 100.45 million tonnes, which is the highest level in 14 months. This could put further downward pressure on the benchmark price of iron ore, which has retreated from recent highs. Macquarie Group now expects the iron ore price to average about $US50 per tonne in 2017, compared with its previous forecast of $US45.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, METAL BULLETIN LIMITED, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Oil’s bounce offers respite for producers

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 28 : 18-May-16

The price of Brent crude oil has rallied to almost $US50 per barrel in mid-May 2016, after falling to around $US28 in January. The rebound has in turn bolstered the share prices of Australian oil and gas producers such as Woodside Petroleum and Santos. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the oil price will rise to $US60 a barrel in the December 2017 quarter, although the firms says increased supply could result in it falling to around $US45 in the March quarter.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

Iron ore blows hole in budget

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 11-May-16

Revenue forecasts in the Australian Government’s May 2016 Budget are based on expectations that the iron ore price will average $US55 over the next two years. The price of the steel input is currently trading at around this level, but futures market quotes in Singapore suggest that it could fall to about $US50. Meanwhile, Justin Smirk of Westpac warns that the iron ore price could potentially fall below $US40, before stabilising at about $US42.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Woodside, Origin under ratings pressure after Fitch downgrades

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 26-Apr-16

Fitch Ratings has downgraded the credit ratings outlook of both Woodside Petroleum and Origin Energy from "stable" to negative. The two groups currently boast credit ratings of "BBB+" and "BBB" respectively. Fitch expects further volatility in the crude oil price and says it is unlikely to rebound for some time. However, Bernstein Research is upbeat about the outlook for the oil price.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, BERNSTEIN INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC LNG LIMITED

Macquarie tips $US48 iron ore

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 20-Apr-16

The iron ore price is trading at around $US60 per tonne, but Macquarie Group does not expect the recent gains to be sustained. Macquarie forecasts that the price of the steel input will retreat to around $US52/tonne during the June and September 2016 quarters, before falling to $US48/tonne in the December quarter. Macquarie also expects the iron ore price to reach a low of $US45/tonne in 2017.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Drones, digital tech offer savings for oil firms

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 15-Apr-16

Unscheduled downtime at LNG projects is estimated to cost about $US11m per day, according to General Electric. Lorenzo Simonelli, the CEO of the conglomerate’s GE Oil & Gas division, says technology can be utilised to minimise such disruptions. This could include the use of drones to monitor the condition of offshore oil or gas platforms and detect leaks, and the use of predictive analysis to determine the likelihood that oil and gas equipment will break down.

CORPORATES
GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, GE OIL AND GAS, CONOCOPHILLIPS, SIEMENS AG, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL

Spot pricing threatens LNG supply glut

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Original article by Paul Garvey, Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 13-Apr-16

Woodside Petroleum CEO Peter Coleman has expressed concern that any move to adopt spot pricing for LNG could result in an oversupply and subsequent downward pressure on prices. He noted that this was the outcome when other commodities shifted to a spot pricing system. Royal Dutch Shell CEO Ben van Beurden expects long-term contracts to continue to be the primary mechanism for setting LNG prices, but he has suggested that these contracts could eventually be linked to the Henry Hub spot gas price rather than the crude oil price.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, CHEVRON CORPORATION

Fortescue Metals chief says iron ore price is stabilising

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 8-Apr-16

The price of iron ore for delivery to the port of Qingdao in China was trading at around $US55 per tonne in early April 2016. Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power believes that the price of the steel input may be at or near its bottom and is likely to stabilise. Meanwhile, Power expects annual demand for steel in China of around 800 million tonnes and he is upbeat about the outlook for the Chinese economy. He also says the group’s blended iron ore joint venture with Vale should be finalised within 3-4 months.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, CREDIT SUISSE AG, McKINSEY AND COMPANY, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD