BUSINESS FORECASTING

BlackRock’s Evy Hambro predicts more mines to close

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 2-Mar-16

BlackRock’s Evy Hambro expects bulk commodities to remain oversupplied, although he forecasts an improvement in the supply-demand balance for some base metals. Hambro also forecasts that more mining companies will discontinue production at some mines during 2016, and he says the downturn in the crude oil price is unsustainable and it will begin to rebound. BlackRock is a major shareholder of leading mining groups such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Glencore.

CORPORATES
BLACKROCK INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, GLENCORE PLC, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, HALLIBURTON INCORPORATED, SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

LNG oversupply could spell gory end for coal

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Original article by Jens Meyer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 25-Feb-16

A recent report from the World Bank forecast that the price of Australian thermal coal will rise to $US58 per tonne by 2020. The price of coal exported from Newcastle was trading at $US40 a tonne in late February 2016, having peaked at almost $US130 a tonne in 2011. Macquarie believes that consumption of thermal coal may have peaked, and it warns that a global oversupply of LNG could further reduce demand for coal.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WORLD BANK

Oil, gas jobs on the skids

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 4-Feb-16

A survey of oil and gas industry executives by Norwegian consulting firm DNV GL shows that nearly 75 per cent of respondents expect the crude oil price to remain weak for some time. Meanwhile, 31 per cent indicated that they will shed staff in 2016 to reduce costs, compared with 25 per cent a year ago. The survey also found that 74 per cent of companies with a capitalisation of at least $US5bn intend to reduce their capital expenditure in 2016.

CORPORATES
DNV GL, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, BP PLC, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX DLS

Blackstone expects oil price to ‘self-correct’

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 2-Feb-16

The price of Brent crude oil was trading at $US35 a barrel in early February 2016, having reached a low of $US28 in January. Blackstone Group president Hamilton James says the current price of crude oil is unsustainable and he expects it to rebound to around the $US75 level in coming years. James adds that the global oil surplus may not be sustained, as US oil supply is likely to fall if the crude oil price remains low.

CORPORATES
THE BLACKSTONE GROUP LP

ANZ tips iron ore to retest lows, surplus

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 14-Jan-16

The iron ore price fell by 39 per cent during 2015, reaching a low of $US38.30 an ounce in mid-December. The price of the steel input has since recovered slightly, but Daniel Hynes and Anurag Soin of the ANZ Bank expect it to retreat again when Chinese steel mills restock following the Chinese New Year holiday period. Hynes and Soin are bearish about the outlook for iron ore in 2016, forecasting a 2.8 per cent decline in demand for steel in China.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, BLOOMBERG LP, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD

RBS tells investors to ‘sell everything’

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Original article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 13-Jan-16

Royal Bank of Scotland is extremely bearish about the outlook for global financial markets in 2016, advising investors to offload all holdings except for "quality bonds". The bank has forecast that sharemarkets in the US and Europe could fall by 10-20 per cent, while global bond yields will also decline sharply and the US Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, RBS says the price of Brent crude oil could potentially test $US16 per barrel. Originally published in "The Telegraph".

CORPORATES
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC, FTSE 100 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF ENGLAND, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UBS AG

Oil M&A tipped to ramp up in 2016 after quiet past year

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 8-Jan-16

IHS forecasts an upturn in mergers and acquisitions activity in the global oil and gas industry in 2016. The global consultancy notes that the total value of such transaction was $US143bn in 2015, which is 22 per cent lower than previously, while there was a significant fall in the number of transactions worth more than $US1bn. Ben Wilson of RBC Capital Markets expects M&A activity to be particularly strong in Australia during 2016.

CORPORATES
IHS INCORPORATED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX DLS, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, BG GROUP PLC, SCEPTER PARTNERS, INTEROIL CORPORATION, BERNSTEIN AND ASSOCIATES, APACHE CORPORATION, BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, QUADRANT ENERGY PTY LTD, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

Bull market not dead yet, says Citi

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 7-Jan-16

Citigroup is upbeat about the outlook for international shares in 2016, forecasting that global equities will gain 12 per cent. However, the investment bank says the Federal Reserve’s recent move to begin tightening monetary policy means other sharemarkets may offer more value for investors than US equities, particularly stocks in Japan and continental Europe. Citigroup also forecasts that Australia will record GDP growth of 2.75 per cent in 2016.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

December rally over as iron ore heads back to $US30s

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 7-Jan-16

The sharp downturn in the Chinese sharemarket on 4 January 2016 has in turn prompted the iron ore price to retreat from its recent high of $US44.37 per tonne. The price of the steel input fell to $US38.30/tonne in mid-December 2015, and Citigroup’s Ivan Szpakowski forecasts that slowing demand from Chinese steel mills will see it fall below $US40/tonne again. Recent data shows that there has been strong growth in iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, BLOOMBERG LP, MAIKE FUTURES, SHANGHAI STEELHOME INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR

Top iron ore shipper predicts prices to fall 19pc in 2016

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Original article by Jasmine Ng
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 23-Dec-15

The iron ore price recently rose above $US40 per tonne, after reaching a low of $US38.50 in early December 2015. However, Australia’s Department of Industry, Innovation & Science is bearish about the outlook for the steel input. It now expects the spot price of iron ore with 62 per cent content to average $US41.30 per metric ton in 2016, after previously forecasting an average price of $US51.20.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, METAL BULLETIN LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD