BUSINESS FORECASTING

Fortescue tips iron ore demand, as price falls

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Original article by Peter Ker, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 19-Nov-15

The iron ore price fell by 4.5 per cent to $US45.68 per tonne on 18 November 2015. However, Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power is upbeat about the outlook for iron ore, saying there are signs of an improvement in China’s housing construction market. Power adds that Fortescue is not "actively" considering asset sales at present, and says Chinese steel mills are more likely to look at investing in the sector when the iron ore price begins to rebound.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ATLAS INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, VALE SA, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Company insolvencies ‘may rise 10pc’

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 13-Nov-15

Ludovic Subran, the chief economist at credit insurance group Euler Hermes, has warned that the growing incidence of corporate insolvencies in emerging markets will have a flow-on effect globally in 2016. Euler Hermes forecasts that Australia will record five per cent growth in insolvencies during 2016, following an increase of around 10 per cent in 2015. Insolvencies in China are forecast to rise by 25 per cent in 2015 and 20 per cent in 2016.

CORPORATES
EULER HERMES, ALLIANZ AG HOLDING

China mining boom last in history

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 11-Nov-15

Australian economist Saul Eslake has warned that the prices of many industrial commodities are likely to fall further in the next year or two. Eslake is particularly bearish about the outlook for the price of coal and iron ore. Eslake also told the International Mining and Resources Conference that there is unlikely to be another commodities boom on the scale of the one that was driven by China’s industrialisation. He argues that other developing countries have significantly smaller populations and are less dependent on commodity imports.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Low oil prices won’t stop LNG boom: HSBC

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 4-Nov-15

HSBC’s global head of commodities, Jean-Francois Lambert, expects the crude oil price to trade within a range of $US45 to $US55 per barrel over the next several years. However, he is upbeat about the outlook for Australian LNG producers, arguing that they will adapt to the lower oil price, which has in turn put downward pressure on LNG prices. Meanwhile, HSBC expects the iron ore price to fall to $US52 per tonne in 2016.

CORPORATES
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

BHP sees bleak iron ore future

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Nov-15

The price of iron ore has shed 16 per cent in the last eight weeks, reaching a low of $US49.50 per tonne on 2 November 2015. Alan Chirgwin of BHP Billiton is bearish about the outlook for the steel input, forecasting that it will keep falling in the next several years and eventually trade at the break-even price of an unspecified iron ore producer in Australia or Brazil. He expects supply to continue to exceed demand in the next several years. BHP’s Shaun Verner also expects the price of metallurgical coal to remain subdued in the near-term.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Iron ore to fall further, says Albanese

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 30-Oct-15

The iron ore price fell to $US49.95 per tonne on 28 October 2015, and Vedanta Resources CEO Tom Albanese expects it to come under more downward pressure. He cites factors such as China’s slowing economy and the nation’s falling steel production, which has coincided with increased iron ore output in Australia and Brazil. BC Iron and Grange Resources are particularly vulnerable to a lower iron ore price, as their break-even prices are above $US50/tonne.

CORPORATES
VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, VALE SA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CHINA METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PLANNING ASSOCIATION, SUPREME COURT OF INDIA

Botten unfazed by overtures from Woodside

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 29-Oct-15

Oil Search CEO Peter Botten says the group’s healthy balance sheet and strong growth prospects means it can focus on expanding its business rather than the spurned takeover offer from Woodside Petroleum. Botten adds that Oil Search would be open to a takeover offer that was appropriately priced, and he anticipates further merger activity in the oil and gas sector. He also forecasts that the oil price will remain at around its current level in the near-term.

CORPORATES
OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, MARUBENI CORPORATION

Global mergers and acquisitions on track for best year ever

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 27-Oct-15

Citigroup notes that some $US3.1trn worth of mergers and acquisitions have been announced globally so far in 2015. Citigroup believes there is potential for 2015 to eclipse 2007 as the biggest calendar year on record in terms of global M&A activity. The Citigroup reports notes that M&A activity is 38 per cent higher than at the same time in 2014, including year-on-year growth of 54 per cent in Asia, central Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV, SABMILLER PLC, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, BG GROUP PLC, HJ HEINZ COMPANY, KRAFT FOODS INCORPORATED, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX DLS, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, SCEPTER PARTNERS, KING AND WOOD MALLESONS, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Iron ore tipped to hit $US40 by March after Chinese woes

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 23-Oct-15

The iron ore price fell by 0.3 per cent to $US52.79 per tonne on 22 October 2015. Ivan Szpakowski of Citigroup forecasts that the iron ore price will fall to $US50/tonne by the end of 2015 and around $US40/tonne in the first quarter of 2016. He attributes the bearish outlook to factors such as slowing demand for iron ore in China and an increase in global supply.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, SHANGHAI BAOSTEEL GROUP CORPORATION, METAL BULLETIN PLC, PRESTIGE ECONOMICS

Supply cuts and firmer demand may lift prices

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Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 21-Oct-15

The iron ore price has fallen by 25.2 per cent so far in 2015 and 48.3 per cent in the last year. Oversupply has also prompted the price of Brent crude oil to fall by 15.05 per cent in 2015 and 47.1 per cent over the last 12 months. Julian Jessop of Capital Economics expects the crude oil price to rebound more quickly than iron ore. Meanwhile, HSBC forecasts that iron ore will continue to trade within a range of $US50 to $US60 per tonne for the next several years.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD