BUSINESS FORECASTING

YouTube expects to lock in Millennials for life

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 14-Sep-15

YouTube estimates that its audience reach among viewers aged 18-49 is now larger than that of US cable TV networks. Jamie Byrne, the director of content strategy at YouTube, believes that so-called Millennials will continue to use the website as they get older rather than switch to more traditional broadcast media. He also expects YouTube’s most popular content creators to remain with the group while expanding into other forms of media.

CORPORATES
YOUTUBE INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, SNAPCHAT INCORPORATED, TWITTER INCORPORATED, INSTAGRAM LLC, VINE, MTV MUSIC TELEVISION

Oil sector profits to be dented as early recovery hopes fade

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13/18 : 17-Aug-15

Woodside Petroleum, Santos and Origin Energy will continue to be under pressure to cut costs as the oil price is expected to remain low. The US benchmark crude has fallen to $US42.50 a barrel which is its lowest level since early 2009. The International Energy Agency believes oil markets will remain oversupplied until late 2016 or early 2017.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Iron ore recovery to be ‘short term’

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Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 31-Jul-15

The price of iron ore rose by 4.57 per cent on 30 July 2015, to $US55.89 per tonne, after reaching a low of $US45 earlier in the month. Kelly Teoh of Clarksons does not expect the upturn to be sustained and warns that the iron ore price will fall again. Ric Spooner of CMC Markets agrees, noting that the commencement of production at projects such as Roy Hill will weigh on the iron ore price.

CORPORATES
CLARKSONS, CMC MARKETS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, QUAY EQUITIES PTY LTD

Gold’s fair value is $US750: Deutsche

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 28-Jul-15

Gold was trading at about $US1,096 per ounce on 27 July 2015, although Deutsche Bank believes that the precious metal remains significantly overvalued. The investment bank has released a report which concludes that "fair value" for gold is around $US785 an ounce. However, the report also states that in real terms the gold price would have to fall to around $US750/ounce in order to be trading at its historical average.

CORPORATES
DEUTSCHE BANK AG, ABN AMRO BANK NV, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, WORLD BANK

Goods prices tipped to bottom out

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 24-Jul-15

The iron ore price is currently trading at around $US51.76 per tonne, while thermal coal is fetching $US60.45 a tonne and crude oil is trading at $US56.11 per barrel. A report from the World Bank forecasts that the prices of all three commodities will remain subdued for the remainder of 2015, although an upturn is expected in 2016. Iron ore is forecast to average $US55 per tonne in 2015, before rising to $US56.70 in 2016.

CORPORATES
WORLD BANK, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Commodity rout to dog miners

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 22-Jul-15

BHP Billiton recently wrote down the value of its US shale assets by $US2.8bn. Analysts expect many resources groups to announce write-downs of key commodities during the next year, due to the sharp downturn in the prices of commodities such as iron ore, crude oil and coal. BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore and Anglo American are tipped to report large declines in their underlying earnings as a result of bearish commodity markets.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, GLENCORE PLC, ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM CORPORATION, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, LIBERUM CAPITAL LIMITED

Flagging energy in LNG sector tipped to last until 2022-23

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 1-Jul-15

Citigroup is bearish about the outlook for the LNG industry, forecasting that a global oversupply will be sustained until at least 2022. The firm also expects growth in spot and contract prices for LNG to remain subdued in the long-term. Meanwhile, it anticipates that a number of projects in the sector will be delayed, including the Woodside Petroleum-led Browse floating LNG venture and ExxonMobil’s Papua New Guinea project.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION

Write-downs in mining nearly erase deal value

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 24-Jun-15

Citigroup has warned that there may be further asset impairment charges in the global mining industry, particularly in the metallurgical and coking coal sector. The firm estimates that around 90 per cent of the value of mergers and acquisitions transacted by large mining groups since 2007 has been written off. Aluminium, iron ore and nickel assets have generated the most impairment charges over the last eight years, while Rio Tinto has the highest level of impaired assets.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, VALE SA, ALCAN INCORPORATED

Iron ore price hits wall of steel

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 19-Jun-15

The price of iron ore was trading at $US61.51 per tonne on 18 June 2015, having peaked at $US65.61 in the previous week. National Australia Bank regards $US60 per tonne as a fair price for the steel input given current market conditions, while Fraser Phillips of RBC Capital Markets does not expect the recent gains in the iron ore price to be maintained unless demand for steel improves.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, DALIAN COMMODITY EXCHANGE, SHANGHAI FUTURES EXCHANGE

Rio urges long game on China iron ore need

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 19-Jun-15

China’s production of crude steel fell by 1.7 per cent in the March 2015 quarter, with a slowdown in the nation’s residential property market adversely affecting demand for steel. Andrew Harding, the CEO of Rio Tinto’s iron ore division, forecasts that demand for steel in China will remain subdued for the next few years. However, he is upbeat about the outlook for both iron ore and steel in the long-term, due to future strong demand in China and other parts of Asia.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CHINA IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI