BUSINESS FORECASTING

Fitch revises ratings for BHP, Rio

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 12-Jun-15

Fitch Ratings has maintained BHP Billiton’s "A+" credit rating, but the resources group’s long-term issuer rating has been downgraded from "stable" to "negative". The firm has cited factors such as a likely decline in BHP’s free cash flow following the demerger of South32. Meanwhile, Fitch has retained Rio Tinto’s "A+" rating and upgraded the group’s outlook from "negative" to
"stable". Fitch expects the price of iron ore to average $US50 per tonne in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC

Low oil price helps airlines to forecast bumper $US29.3b profits

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 10-Jun-15

The International Air Transport Association forecasts that the global airline industry’s combined profit for 2015 will total $US29.3bn ($A38.4bn). This compares with a previous forecast of a $US25bn profit for the sector. Airlines in North America are expected to book a $US15.7bn profit, while Asia-Pacific airlines’ combined profit is expected to be $US5.1bn. Airlines have benefited from factors such as lower oil prices and bond yields.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH

Iron ore rally is short-lived and self-defeating: Goldman

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 10-Jun-15

Iron ore was trading at $US64.34 per tonne on 9 June 2015, compared with $US47 in April. However, Christian Lelong of Goldman Sachs remains bearish about the outlook for the steel input, forecasting that it will retreat to less than $US50 per tonne in the next three years. Chris Drew of Royal Bank of Canada also does not expect iron ore’s recent price gains to be sustained, citing factors such as a looming increase in supply in China.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA

Iron ore miners told to prepare for rough ride

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Rose Powell, Julie-anne Sprague
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 29-May-15

Iron ore was trading at $US63.10 per tonne on 28 May 2015. The China Metallurgical Industry Planning & Research Institute’s president, Xinchuang Li, expects it to trade within a range of $US55 to $US65 per tonne over the next several years. He adds that strong competition in China’s steel industry will keep downward pressure on the prices of both iron ore and steel. China imported 933 million tonnes of iron ore in 2014.

CORPORATES
CHINA METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PLANNING AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, STOCKBROKERS ASSOCIATION OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Barclays: oil will be lower for longer

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 21-May-15

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading at $US58.60 per barrel on 20 May 2015. Grant Porter of Barclays is bearish about crude oil, forecasting that the US price could trade at around the $US65 level until at least 2017. He notes that drilling work at many US oil wells is partially complete, and they will begin production when the oil price becomes more favourable.

CORPORATES
BARCLAYS BANK PLC, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, BG GROUP PLC

Rio chief says coal price slump to last

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 11-May-15

The price of thermal coal has fallen to around $US63 per tonne, compared with $US150 in 2011. Rio Tinto executive Jean-Sebastien Jacques is bearish about the outlook for thermal coal, forecasting that the price may not recover for 3-4 years. The head of the group’s coal division says his main aim at present is to ensure that all of Rio’s coal mines continue to be cash-flow positive. He has downplayed suggestions that Rio could exit the coal business, but says any asset would be for sale at the right price.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

Oil and gas on U-shape recovery, says AMEC

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jenny Wiggins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 10-Apr-15

AMEC Foster Wheeler CFO Ian McHoul expects difficult conditions in the oil and gas sector for another 1-2 years. He suggests that the eventual upturn in the sector is more likely to be U-shaped rather than V-shaped. The UK-based engineering group’s growing clean energy business is helping to offset falling demand for oil and gas industry services. The group is interested in Australian acquisitions

CORPORATES
AMEC FOSTER WHEELER PLC, WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED – ASX WOR, KBR INCORPORATED, FLUOR CORPORATION, AECOM, JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP INCORPORATED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Oil price will not make a splash before December quarter, says NAB

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 8-Apr-15

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rallied on 6 April 2015, to $US52.14 per barrel, and Brent crude oil traded at $US58.12. Meanwhile, National Australia Bank has forecast that the price of Brent oil will average $US54 during the June quarter and $US58 in the September quarter. However, the banking major is more upbeat about the longer-term price, forecasting that it will average $US63 per barrel in the December quarter

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF ENERGY. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

Lively second half tipped for oil, gas M&A

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 40 : 2-Apr-15

Wood Mackenzie has forecast an upturn in mergers and acquisitions activity in the oil and gas sector in the second half of 2015, due to the downturn in the crude oil price. The price of Brent crude oil was trading at around $US55 per barrel on 1 April, compared with $US115 in mid-2014. Wood Mackenzie also expects growth in demand for LNG in Asia to slow in response to the falling price of oil

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL

Exporters face tough times: BIS

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 16 : 8-Dec-14

A report from the Bank for International Settlements has warned that commodity exporting nations may continue to experience difficult conditions for some time. It cites factors such as the rising US dollar, the recent fall in commodity prices and the funding models used by commercial banks. The price of iron ore has fallen by 18 per cent in recent months, while Brent crude oil is down 32 per cent. The Australian dollar in turn has fallen to a 4.5-year low of $US0.83

CORPORATES
BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS